Thread by @ThreshedThought

Hearing several reports that a large number (over a thousand) mostly Helmandi and some Kandahari Talibs are moving up to Kabul to assume the internal security of Kabul.

This tells us a few things.

Firstly, that the central Talibs trust most the southerners.

Which will inevitably cause frictions with the Talibs who rocked up in Kabul who were from places like Logar.

This also has creates huge issues for the US and UK evacuations.

The US and the UK did most of their fighting in the south. Particularly places like Helmand. Particularly places that have a strong culture of badal (revenge).

No matter what the central Talibs want - there will be Helmandis in that group that will have lost close relatives due to the actions of US and particularly UK forces.

They would be honour bound to extract revenge. I’m not taking full scale attack here, I am taking pot shots at the gate whilst US/UK doing crowd control.

Here we find out how strong the control of the Talibs fighting factions are by the central leadership. Strong enough to overcome the requirements for badal?

This maybe about to become the most anxious time for the evacuation.

The angrez in particular are totally loathed by the Helmandi tribes whom they’ve fought in three wars since the 1840s (Brits unaware of this when they blundered into Helmand in 2006).

The battle of Maiwand for instance - always held up as an Afghan national victory - was largely due to the presence of the Alizai, Barakzai and Noorzai militias.

Every Helmandi knows the names of the leaders of that fight - Ahktur Khan in the 1840s and Abu Bakr in the 1880s.

The names bring a smile to their faces when you mention them. They are proud of their resistance to the Angrez.

I guess another thought is about what this means for Kabul - Helmand is about as far away as it is possible to get from Kabul on the conservative-cosmopolitan scale.

This is bad news for Kabul, especially its women (whom Helmandis, in the main, treat like shit).

For the detail on all this history you can get a

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What’s also interesting is that there still isn’t a Taliban government formed or announced ….

God it must be taking time trying to negotiate all those factions. Kabul fell on Sunday. It’s now Friday.

We’ve had one press conference.

Multiple reports of Taliban going round Kabul with lists looking for former int officers and senior army etc. These are then disappeared.

I know the UK and US need to make nice during the evacuation, but there must be a response to what effectively are extrajudicial killings.

With respect to all everyone trying to get out of Kabul: an entire gen of educated people who want 2 leave - utterly damming on the Talibs.

At some point are the Talibs are going to realise what a brain drain this represents?

How do you build a county without educated people?

It is becoming increasingly clear that the central Talibs don’t really have full control over the Talibs at the check points, which themselves are a patchwork of different groups of Talibs from the surrounding provinces.

They didn’t expect to win this quickly and they have no movement-wide agreement on how to proceed. Big disagreements about power, factions and government.

That’s within the movement. There are also discussions around Karzai and Abdullah2 ans Hekmatyar who were meant to do the transition negotiations but these were scuppered by Ghani fleeing …

Ghani says he fled because Talibs entered the city but is this another example of central and local Talibs not being able to coordinate?

Where is Hibatullah the TB leader??

Rumours are that he has died of Covid…

Ok. Seems there are some fairly big rifts between the roughly three groups of Talibs who are in Kabul.

- the Haqqani lot, whose leader we have seen in meetings with Karzai
- the Helmandis and kandaharis with senior people like Zakir (ex gitmo)
….

- another group of Tb from Jalalabad, laghman, and nuristan.

Clear that a lot of jostling for power taking place.

This doesn’t even take into the hundreds of talib check points that are each with a random talib group

Centre of talib movement doesn’t have control of this

Stuff happening up in Panjshir

6 days and no government formed

And now from several sources: ISI-linked TB are leading the hunt for ex NDS etc Ghani gov people

This is causing some gov employees to go into hiding.

Which is having an impact on the feelings of chaos in Kabul.

It seems that the Talibs are playing the old Afghan game: haggling over Chawqai (lit: chair, meaning seats of power).

This is both internal amongst the factions and involves trying to bring in other non- Talib factions.

To be fair to them, this sort of negotiation should have occurred in 2001 instead of the victors’ peace that was the Bonn Conference.

But it will take ages to get a government going like that…

And in the meantime we have the evacuations and the hunting of ex-government employees.

Not a great start

Aaaannnnddd - there we go - mention ISI in a tweet and a bunch of Pakistani jihadi fanboy accounts slide into my mention.

I’m sure they think they’re winning the info war or something but it’s so poorly done as to be laughable.

On Zakir - once released from Gitmo he was then held in Afghan gov detention. He was one of the guys that the US forced the Afg gov to release last year.

What a catastrophic blunder that was. I think we will look back on the 5000 freed Talibs as one of the most stupid aspects

Here we go

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1428822699598442497

Negotiations over new government continuing I see. Obviously not a huge amount of trust there.

https://twitter.com/saberibrahimi/status/1428792663793360906

Barardar now in Kabul

https://twitter.com/bbcpashto/status/1428826798310187009

Hmmm. @R4WorldTonight, an excellent programme in the main (esp. w/ @ritula), is framing the situation as a ‘Taliban return to power’.

I’m not sure we are there yet.

No TB gov announc’d. Lots of TB factions. TB pol-mil & words-deeds disconnect. Resistance in Panjshir etc.

Nothing heard from Hibatullah leader of TB, nor Yacoub, Mullah Omar’s son.

Yacoub and Haqqani hate each other by the way.

Chaos internally within Taliban.

They are as stunned by their occupation of Kabul as everyone else.

Fascinating insights into the Taliban from on-the-ground @NagiebK (a must follow btw).

The Helmandis want female education shut down but the Haqqanis, Wardakis & Logaris insisted on keeping them.

Power everywhere is about postions as well as issues.

It all starts to look like and East-West Pushtun split….

So what’s the balance going to be in the new Talib government between the four major Pashtun confederations (Durrani, Ghiljai, Karlani & Sarbani (W->E)?

Let alone the other ethnicities …

And while this is going on the ATMs are shut in Kabul etc.

Good reporting from @Telegraph. Apparently the Helmandi are chilling in the Ministry of Finance building.

I wonder if they’ve got their eye on the Minister of Finance role? Will make it easier to launder their drug profits I guess.

Maybe they can get the ATMs working again?

They blatantly went there to try and rob it.

What a joke. Come on Doha Talibs - get a fucking grip or there will be chaos.

Ok here’s a different view: the Haqqanis have been put on charge of security. Maybe both the Helmandis and the Haqqanis think they’re ‘in charge’ (masoul) for the security of Kabul.

Fratricide?

voanews.com/south-central-…

Taliban hint that they are hoping to resolve Panjshir through talks, presumably through Abdullah2

Is the ‘resistance’ just a negotiating strategy for the Panjshiris?

As the inter Taliban factions negotiations continue, can we say it is true that what allowed the Taliban to take over—a series of local deals along tribal lines—may well stop them forming the political coalition necessary to form a government?

In a month or so are we going to see Taliban factions turn on each other?

But for now … is what we’re seeing with both the Helmandis/Kandaharis & the Haqqanis rocking up actually a power struggle within the Taliban leadership playing out on the ground in Kabul?

Both claim they are responsible for the security of Kabul…

Didn’t take long did it for talib factionalism to come out, did it?

Ok. Some clarification. Mullah Shirin, a Kandahari, appointed Governor of Kabul by Quetta Shura. Anas Haqqani appointed Kabul’s in charge of security by Quetta Shura.

Apparently they have been meeting to work out their responsibilities.

Some earlier thoughts on the Taliban

https://twitter.com/spectator/status/1425833779839438859

And here on Sky (three short clips on Taliban government formation):

https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1427553413806448644

Still very unclear who is in charge of Kabul on TB side. An announcement from @Zabehulah_M33 would be helpful in this regard….

Ok. Another twist - apparently Abdul Rahman Mansur (a Helmandi, from Baghran District in Helmand) is the Talib Governor of Kabul.

Baghran is the most conservative district in the most conservative province….. interesting signal to send.

wsj.com/articles/afgha…

And apparently Massoud has surrendered to / done a deal with the Taliban. If true, his resistance didn’t last long!

Still confusion over Massoud ….

Meanwhile, a massive shout out to @TOLOnews who are sticking to their guns

https://twitter.com/saadmohseni/status/1429090370357452807

If it wasn’t so tragic it would be hilarious …

Random Talibs are going round to Ministries and government departments and asking employees where the money is. Shaking them down. They basically don’t know how government works, says someone who experienced this.

Also - reports of a couple of hundred Helmandis turning up every day in Kabul.

Still tensions between the Helmandis (who have started to take over checkpoints) and the Haqqanis

Rumours that there are plains clothes ISI officers embedded in the Haqqani group …

Thé Massoud thing is downgraded to ‘ongoing conversations’

Super interesting thread of on-the-ground reporting on girls education and frictions within the TB in Kabul (in Danish so use Twitter translate)

https://twitter.com/NagiebK/status/1429077279511089158

Interesting. Retaliation for early possible US cyber attack against TB websites? That would be an uptick in TB capability or more likely an allied state actor like Russia …

https://twitter.com/JacquiHeinrich/status/1429173367643516936

So I guess the question is - if Hibatullah, the leader of the Taliban not yet seen, is actually dead, who is going to lead the movement?

I mean, it’s rumoured that he’s dead

Interesting comments here from TB spokesman that they want ‘a strong central [government] system’.

This of course is usually the kiss of death in Afghanistan which probably needs a lot more decentralisation (as centralisation requires force to enforce).

https://twitter.com/ieaoffice/status/1429142059475156994

They are of course at the moment trying to work out the structure of their government.

Which includes stuff like this. Later Mahdavi met Anas Haqqani which is a surprise.

https://twitter.com/sulaimanhakemy/status/1429071762831065088

If stuff like this is pukka, it would seem to suggest that the Talibs are trying to craft a ‘Afghan national’ flavour to their government, rather than a jihadi flavour. Who knows? Remains to be seen.

There are basically three interlocking circles that the Taliban leadership have to square:

- Internal Taliban factions (Haqqani, Helmandis etc)
- Other Afghan factions e.g. Panjshiris, Hazaras, etc)
- External recognition.

And they all affect each other.

Apologies for the double shape metaphor.

Please @Twitter can we shut down the accounts of anyone who tweets about Afghanistan and gets the people confused with the currency?

An Intimate War featured on @TheEconomist Afghanistan reading list

https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/1428137152605523986

You can get a

**** 50% DISCOUNT ****

off the paperback edition of 'An Intimate War' direct from @HurstPublishers.

Go here: hurstpublishers.com/book/an-intima…

And use the code ‘INTIMATEWAR50’ at checkout

See, down in the southwest it’s about Iran, and water

pajhwok.com/2021/08/22/no-…

Meanwhile, in Kabul …

https://twitter.com/AishaKHM/status/1429364554186862599

Veteran Afghan journalist @bsarwary has decided to leave Afghanistan as he does not feel that he can continue under Taliban rule.

Price of flour has doubled in Kabul

Getting the economy going again definitely the first task for the TB once they’ve finished their internecine squabbling.

Conquest is so easy in comparison to governing.

There is a woman sitting at this table….

https://twitter.com/1tvnewsaf/status/1429854573947150346

Some thoughts from @ProfAnkersen and me
technologyreview.com/2021/08/23/103…

And back to the Panjshiris ... there are a couple of reports of helicopters flying from Tajikistan into the Panjshir

I guess there's three options: Russia, India, or possibly the US (trying to distract to buy time for its evacuation).

Overall, the Panjshiri's position seems pretty rubbish. I mean they could hold Panjshir indefinitely, but so what?

It strikes me as much more likely that what we are seeing part of their negotiating strategy - I mean this is how you negotiate in Afghanistan - no-one will take you seriously unless you have a bunch of guys with guns.

And this idea is supported by Abdullah2 still being in Kabul talking to the Taliban (who have said that they want a government with non-Talibs in it).

But it also seems to me that no-one is going to seriously support the Panjshiris until it has been decided who is going to recognise the main (Talib) government in Afghanistan, and I think for that, everyone is waiting for China to blink.

So Massoud et al have got to hold out until then, and maybe then they'll get serious support, but, like I said, I think this is just a negotiating strategy.

It isn't, as some have styled it, Resistance 2.0. And I think that all the people stoking that are people who don't live in Afghanistan where, in the main, people want peace, not continued fighting.

And the Taliban have said that they won’t form a gov until the US leaves … which means we’ll be waiting for a while …

Interesting reporting on the non-government formation by the Taliban
nytimes.com/2021/08/23/wor…

aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/22…

Gul Agha (Helmandi) is going to be finance minister reportedly. And Sardar Ibrahim (Helmandi) will be interior minister. Looks like it paid off for the Helmandis to get guys up in Kabul and occupy the ministry of finance building.

https://twitter.com/El_Hunto/status/1430156226915184644

And Hibatullah, the Taliban leader, will apparently make an appearance soon.

https://twitter.com/el_hunto/status/1430162449462874121

Some thoughts on the Iranian-Taliban relationship
spectatorworld.com/topic/iran-imm…

And back to the old Taliban
politico.com/news/2021/08/2…

Mullah Zakir - ex Guantanamo, released in 2007 ish, then became head of military commission, has just been appointed Minister of Defence.

You can read his gitmo Detainee Assessment here (he used a fake name, and the US fell for it):

wikileaks.org/gitmo/pdf/af/u…

Read the file. It’s extraordinary. After 6 years in captivity, the US hasn’t even bothered to translate the documents/books he was captured with.

Yes, the war on terror was lazy, as well.

wikileaks.org/gitmo/pdf/af/u…

Zakir is Alizai/Khalozai. Interesting that Sher Mohammad Akhundzada (Alizai/Hassanzai), the other bigwig in the Alizai, has been seen hanging around with Talibs in Kabul recently. With two of the three major sub tribes of the Alizai sewn up, that sort out Northern Helmand.

Also fascinating how many major positions are going to the Helmandis: finance, defence, interior, potentially Governor of Kabul. With the Haqqanis in charge of security of Kabul is this a compromise?

Doesn’t seem like a compromise I’d be happy with if I were the haqqanis.

But more broadly if these appointments are true, it gives the lie to TB claims to a broad based government. They’ve just given all the positions to militants from the most backwards province.

And we’re out
theguardian.com/world/2021/aug…

From Bagram to Kabul International Airport in just under twenty years. We did a good job of equipping the Taliban and rebuilding the state for them.

Bit of a treasure trove on the new Talib Minister of Defence, Mullah Zakir (he was claiming he was a bodyguard, with a fake name, rather than a TB corps commander).

Detainee personal statement: int.nyt.com/data/documentt…

Further surreal interview transcripts:
int.nyt.com/data/documentt…

Whether by intention or not, the Taliban are not appointing a government that the US will find easy to accept. Perhaps they don't care. Perhaps they are flush with victory.

But it seem to me that the main reason is that (I assume) China has already told them that they will recognise them, and most importantly, be the main sponsor of the Afghan state.

Interestingly, within less than a week of the fall of Kabul, two Chinese publishers contacted us in order to start acquiring the Chinese rights to An Intimate War.

Of course, the West translated all the Russian works on Afghanistan when we went in.

What with China being what it is, with no freedom of the press, I assume that this is with the agreement of the CCP, if not on their direction.

I think China may go for it. Good luck.

For the detail on all these Talib personalities now popping up in government you can get a

**** 50% DISCOUNT ****

off the paperback edition of 'An Intimate War' which charts it.

Go here: hurstpublishers.com/book/an-intima…

And use the code ‘INTIMATEWAR50’ at checkout

The # of Helmandis in the Talib gov speaks to a couple of things 1) how rich they got off the opium there (so the Talibs won't be banning opium) and 2) how totally the US & UK failed to 'defeat the Taliban' in Helmand. It's the opposite - they are the most powerful faction now.

These appts speak to s/thing else as well - I assume China has allowed them as a way of causing max embarrassment to the US ....

... which it will enhance by recognising the Talibs in gov, the Talibs will 'renounce' militancy (as per China's demands), and China will crow that it's model of dev is better than the US's.

This will last about 5 years before China get's sucked in.

I think the western leaders going on about giving up influence to Russia and China are missing the point.

In real politique terms this is a win for the US, if they can get China to get stuck. See here:
unherd.com/2020/01/will-c…

I'm surprised it took this long for the TB to pick up this theme. I mean why would they let all the educated people leave?
aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/24…

But how does this position stack up against giving the conservative Helmandis many of the prominent positions in the so-far-announced TB government.

Time will tell.

And back to Helmand for an update:

Mawlani Talib is Governor of Helmand (Ishaqzai, from Sangin)
Haji Mohammad Khan is Helmand Hd of Security (Taraki, from Nad Ali)

These are minority tribes in Helmand.

Gul Agha announced as Min Finance nationally (also Ishaqzai)
Sardar Ibrahim Minister of Inferior nationally (Alikozai)

Both also small tribes in Helmand.

And Zakir for Minister of Defence. He’s Alizai. Big tribe in Helmand. Tiny on national stage.

The Talibs are relying on a very narrow faction, unless this is just a power grab by the Helmandis.

Talib footsoldiers in Lash/Kabul are mostly Ishaqzai and Alizai.

In Helmand the lack of Barakzai and Noorzai doesn’t bode well for future stability. (The barakzai make a lot of money out of the checkpoints in Gereshk - who will get this now?)

And the Russians are out of Afghanistan (ironically evacuating under the US security umbrella). Guess those talib groups whom they supported in the north haven’t ended up in power. Surprise surprise. tass.com/world/1329745

One wonders if, coupled with those helicopters flying from Tajikistan to Panjshir, and the Tajikistani President staying there would be no recognition of a TB gov unless it included Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras etc, whether Russia has switched horses from the TB to the Panjshiris

History going full circle with double backflips again in Afghanistan

This leave China in the recognition game

Word is that the political Talibs like Barardar would like to try for a more inclusive gov, but that the Helmandis have just gobbled stuff up. They want all the power.

Fascinating that Karzai has been evicted from his home, his guards disarmed, and he has to live with Abdullah2. Dont know what to read into it - that Barardar is making a play for Popalzai tribal leadership from Karzai, or that Barardar doesn’t have much power in Kabul (no guns)?

Back on the Russia story - Modi and Putin chatted yesterday about ‘ensuring stability in Afghanistan’. Uh huh. Sure they did.

https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status/1430098467100119047

Talibs need to get the economy going again in Kabul (let alone the provinces). Total joke.

Wow. The Haqqanis popping up on Twitter. First time he’s tweeted since the fall of Kabul.

https://twitter.com/anashaqqani313/status/1430617624006778880

I want the Helmandi Talibs to go on Twitter!

It seems that the Taliban have had more luck with appointing local gov figures than at national level. Their war-fighting shadow governance (e.g. Shadow Provincial Governor for x province) has just slid across with the old ‘shadows’ becoming the de facto Talib governors now

But really clear they had no idea about the national structure. This was a series of local wars for them. Each province, each district, with a different set of actors and a different set of e.g. tribal actors, political economy etc.

Now they have the same problem as every other government of Afghanistan - how to fashion the disparate parts into a whole.

And previously they relied on Islam as a unifying factor. But I don’t think that will work now. Too much of the population is urban, educated, and less religious.

Will the British Gov @DefenceHQ @ukhomeoffice comment on whether it prioritised single UK passport holders (majority white) over dual passport holders (majority in Kabul context brown) in the evacuation?

Keen to know if this constitutes an illegal military order due to its separation of UK citizens into 2 classes?

Possibly one for UK opposition/média to raise?

@jreynoldsMP @EdwardJDavey @bealejonathan

Having been involved in getting a small number of people out, I can confirm that this is the case from inside the system
theguardian.com/world/2021/aug…

The evac operation at Kabul appears to be collapsing in on itself. UK pulled back from wire, Turks going home, ‘imminent’ threat of attack, French going etc.

I think the reality is that it will be citizens only, with very few exceptions.

The attack that was imminent has now occurred: bomb attack at Kabul Airport

Suicide attack. Abbey Gate / Baron Hôtel. Was mostly used by the Brits as a reception centre. Brits have been gone about 24 hours now.

Global Times reports second explosion.

Confirmed

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1430908345876058113

https://twitter.com/rajshekhartoi/status/1430907976940867591

Here’s some questions behind the suicide attack:

What is the venn diagram between the Taliban, ISIS and Haqqani? There are overlaps and mixed allegiances.

How did this play out in the background to the attack; was it anything to do with the current political vacuum in Kabul?

Either way, can’t see US not responding to this. I would expect some more bombs to fall on Afghanistan soon.

And now we know that the evac is really wrapping up… a fascinating short thread.

https://twitter.com/nafisehkbbc/status/1430996005911244816

And in a fortnight of news that is beyond parody, we have this, which I think takes the biscuit.
politico.com/news/2021/08/2…

Zabihullah Mujahid: "The Islamic Emirate strongly condemns the bombing of civilians at the airport. The blast took place in an area where security is in the hands of US forces."