Thread by @therealarod1984

8/21 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

Highlights:

1) More good news!
2) Rt & PCR Pos% all looking good
3) Cases decline vs last week!
4) Hospitalizations pretty good day!
5) No fatality breakdown today. 190 reported, +73 vs LW

1/n
.

https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1428811690045493250

8/21 Rate of Growth (RoG) Analysis:

** For Case & Hosps, RoG is calculated by comparing Week over Week (WoW) 7DMAs

* PCR Pos% Rate of Decline of 2.1% WoW. 6 straight days of decline. (More in 3/n)
* Case RoG down to 13.7!%
* Hospitalization RoG down 2.0% to 19.5%

2/n
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8/21 Positivity Rates & Rt:

* PCR 8/9 peak holds
* PCR pos% is 18.23%, down 2.1% WoW
* As mentioned yesterday, by Monday, the PCR graph will be a nice peak.
* Covidestim Texas Rt revised up to 0.97 (below magic # of 1.0). No worries right now.

3/n
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8/21 Cases

* 18.8K Cases vs 21.9K last Sat, therefore a decline in 7DMA
* Lowest 7DMA since Tues
* Case RoG declines to 13.7%
* I predicted case peak by this weekend, no later than Monday. Based on pos% peak, pos test arrivals, 2020 comps, feeling good about prediction

4/n
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8/21 Hospitalizations

* Solid Day
* +110 to 12951. Last Sat was +120
* Good drop in RoG, down 2.0% to 19.5%
* In the vs 2020 charts, the general bed trend line is really showing curve towards peak
* Decent Day 2 of #weekend. Need a good Sunday!
* Predicting 8/30 peak

5/n
.

8/21 Conclusion

* Great day for cases, -400 in the 7DMA
* Pos% going to look real good on Monday
* Rt adjusted upwards, but still below 1.0. I think we will see it trend back down in the next couple of days
* Hospitalizations - solid. Still good calling an 8/30 peak

6/end