Amazing new paper by @amirrkermani @francisawong on the racial gap in housing returns.

Black and Hispanic households see their housing wealth grow less, contributing to the overall racial wealth gap substantially.
The large raw differences are mostly about differences in borrower characteristics, particularly about *place* of purchase.
The returns gap is 1) amplified by high leverage and 2) entirely concentrated in distressed sales (foreclosures and other sales arising out of delinquency).
Because distress sales arise from liquidity / cash flow shocks, this means that more volatile labor income increases foreclosure risk.

The paper therefore shows how the labor market, fed through the mortgage market, makes it hard to use housing to close the racial wealth gap.
The paper might therefore be called "the foreclosure crisis strikes back" because it's about how the foreclosure crisis, which hit black and brown communities particularly hard, also did long term damage by increasing the racial wealth gap.

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More from @p_ganong

20 Aug
Millions of people have had federal UI benefits cut off

Stated goal: speed the labor market recovery.

Is it working?

Tldr: Nope. Per person losing benefits, net employment changes by -0.14 to + 0.08. Uncertainty remains large.
What makes today special? BLS releases state employment data, so we can compare July employment in states that cut off benefits and states that did not.

The new data capture employment during the payroll period containing July 12. @pascaljnoel and @JoeVavra and I analyze.
First, we plot the change in employment by state, coloring each state by whether they terminated benefits
Read 19 tweets
19 Aug
New findings on spending during unemployment and macro conditions by my colleagues at #JPMCInstitute

TLDR: UI policy and liquidity are the key drivers of spending for unemployed households.

Macro conditions, in contrast, appear not to matter.

Thread
^ Spending very similar for
* Green line: Great Recession
* Blue line (almost identical): 2010's boom

These are two periods where macro conditions are very different, but income in the first few months of unemployment are very similar
^ The orange line for 2020 when PUC available, is radically different -- much more income paid out and much higher spending too
Read 10 tweets
6 Aug
Tomorrow is jobs day and everyone wants to know how early cut off of pandemic benefits will affect employment

I can tell you the answer tonight... you won't learn anything tomorrow‼️

no state data are released ‼️

🧵 on evidence from 5 other data sources that *are* by state
TLDR: four data sources point to no significant/detectable effect, one data source finds a decrease in employment. issues with parallel trend assumptions and inference are plentiful though.
1) The BLS releases state-level employment estimates based on the establishment survey two weeks after the national numbers. For July data, have to wait until August 20. Analysis of the June state-level estimates is here. Looks like a noisy zero.
Read 11 tweets
29 Jul
New research on Pandemic Unemployment Assistance by JPMC Institute w @FionaGreigDC @Dan_M_Sullivan @pascaljnoel @JoeVavra

PUA is for people not eligible for regular UI

PUA meaningfully insures inc risk, but w/much longer wait for benefits!

jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jp…
The plot above shows that for people who got regular UI in 2019, non-UI income falls at exactly the same time that UI kicks in (green line).

Regular UI in 2020 (orange line) income starts to fall four weeks before UI kicks in

PUA (blue) income starts to fall ten weeks before
There is also a smaller decline in income after UI receipt for the blue line. Two likely interpretations:
--PUA recipients account for smaller share of HH income
--some PUA recipients have already gone back to work by the time they finally get their benefits
Read 4 tweets
29 Jul
🚨new results on the effect of UI supplements on job-finding 🚨

2 designs x 2 policy changes yield consistent pattern: small, precisely estimated disincentive effects

Disincentive remains small even after job openings up
An overarching theme of the pandemic has been to view the supplements as responsible for the biggest problems (slow employment recovery, usually conservatives) and the biggest successes (rising wages at the bottom, usually liberals).

Our results are inconsistent with both views.
Instead, it makes sense to think of the effects of pandemic UI primarily as an ambitious anti-poverty policy. I can’t think of a time before when a country gave *full* insurance to earnings losses (examples welcome in the comments)
Read 22 tweets
28 Jul
Why is UI hard to access?

Most policy discussions (rightly) focus on issues of state capacity.

Amazing paper by Sorkin, Lachowska, and Woodbury focus on *firms* who make it hard to get UI and the seamy underbelly of experience rating.
I think of this as the academic paper which captures @IndivarD's political economy model of a major problem with the UI system
Experience rating is the system where firms that lay off more workers pay more in UI taxes.

Goal: discourage layoffs
Read 6 tweets

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