Thread by @OECtoday

Climate change is making your morning coffee cup more expensive. Here's a brief story of how much more depends on your taste. /1 oec.world

#Brazil #Coffee #ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency #OECPro #ForeignTrade #EconomicComplexity #DataVisualization #DataScience

Brazil grows 28% of the world's Robusta crop (bitter, used for instant coffee and espresso), and 41% of Arabica, the beans favored by Starbucks & Dunkin'. Trade data shows how coffee is affected by climate change, and how our taste for coffee could evolve in a warmer future. /2

Coffee is one of the most traded commodities ($30B in 2019). Two species, Arabica(70%) and Robusta(30%), account for virtually all production. Climate change studies suggest a 50% reduction in the area suitable for Arabica by 2050. Robusta grows in hotter temperatures. /3

In Brazil, Arabica production is located in the states of Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Bahia. Robusta is almost exclusively grown in the state of Espírito Santo. During the last six months, only the state of Espírito Santo has grown its coffee exports in Brazil. /4

Brazil's decline in coffee exports comes with a decrease in Arabica production during the last years. According to the US Department of Agriculture database, Brazil’s Arabica production is expected to drop by 30% this year, while Robusta will grow by 5%. /5

This year, Brazil’s Arabica production will be at the same levels as 2011, when the price of coffee peaked. In 2011, Arabica production in Brazil declined 17%, while Robusta increased 14%. /6

Along with Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia, Ethiopia, Mexico, Central America, and Uganda produce 90% of the world’s coffee. Colombia, Ethiopia, Mexico and Central America yield mostly Arabica. Vietnam, Indonesia, and Uganda grow mostly Robusta. /7

Even in Brazil, Robusta is gaining ground among producers. In 2011, 30% of total production was Robusta. This year, it will be 40%. /8

Robusta has been traditionally viewed as inferior to Arabica and thus only fetches a fraction of the cost. It's characteristics have also made Robusta a good option for consumers with a taste for espresso or instant coffee. /9

Something to be seen is the effect that changes in Arabica would have on prices this time. Demand in 2021 isn't the same as 2011. It seems that over the years some have gradually altered their taste. Maybe even in the United States coffee comsumption is evolving. /10

Recent trade data shows the US is substituting coffee imports from Brazil and Colombia with imports from México, Central America, Ethiopia, Kenya, and China (all of them Arabica producers). However, Indonesia, Vietnam and Uganda are also increasing exports of Robusta to the US/11

Robusta's fruit has more caffeine, and that’s what we might need now. Yes, it’s also bitter, and that’s what we might need also. Pricier blends dominated by Arabica and a warmer climate could be the push we needed to adapt. Climatically, Robusta might save our morning coffee. /12