Ben Chu Profile picture
25 Aug, 13 tweets, 4 min read
Is more worker immigration from the EU the right solution to the UK haulier shortage crisis?

🇬🇧🚚🛒🛍️🚛🇪🇺

A thread…
...In June a minister suggested the industry was “crying wolf” about the consequences of driver shortages (down 100,000 on pre-Covid levels)…thegrocer.co.uk/supermarkets/m…
...With the shortages now hitting supplies to fast food outlets and supermarkets it’s fair to say the wolf is at the door....bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
...The industry is pressing minister to put drivers on the immigration Shortage Occupations List (SOL), which they argue would encourage some of the 10-15,000 or so EU hauliers who left last year to return....gov.uk/government/pub…
...The government has rejected this, specifically citing the Brexit vote when, in their words, people “repeatedly voted to take control of our immigration system”...ft.com/content/514834…
...This has created some cleavages on the liberal left.

On the one hand some feel EU immigration *should* be encouraged and especially to help solve the haulage crisis.

Interesting @politicshome poll here...

politicshome.com/news/article/p…
...But others have been pointing out that hauliers have been badly paid and that the industry has been overly reliant on cheap EU workers for too long.

Many of you will have read this powerful thread and FT piece from @sarahoconnor_ ....

...One migration expert I spoke to is also sceptical of the claims of haulage bosses that drivers would return given most will have had a chance to claim settled status, which would mean they could *already* return if they wanted without being added to the SOL list...
...It’s possible that both views are partly right.

I’ve been speaking to many in the haulage industry in recent days and I'm struck how they ALL agree hauliers *were* underpaid and certainly socially undervalued – and that this SHOULD change...
...They also argue that wages are now rising very fast and that this is something that WILL - in the long term - encourage more UK-born workers into the profession...
...They also accept that the industry did not do enough in the past to make the sector resilient and sustainable from an employment perspective...
...Yet I'm also struck how adamant they are that there is no lever that the government can pull now (e.g increasing the number of HGV tests or instructors etc) that will have a hope of alleviating this problem in the coming months EXCEPT trying to entice back EU workers....
...A final thought: there’s also a growing feeling in the industry that the government will ultimately have to u-turn on this visa demand, with one haulage boss comparing the situation to the 2000 fuel protests.

More on @BBCNewsnight tonight from 22.30

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More from @BenChu_

8 Jul
UPDATE on the flat cladding/fire safety crisis.

FT reports government asking banks if they can help solve it - meeting with ministers (including PM) & bank bosses on Tuesday....

ft.com/content/226d30…
...Banks won't lend to people seeking to buy flats with cladding/safety issues helping to make them impossible to sell.

Sounds like banks are proposing government guarantee on mortgages made on flats that could be identified as dangerous to help unlock bank lending...
...Would this work?

Seems to miss the fact that even if someone *could* get lending to buy one of these flats, why would they if they could be hit with bill of up to £100k after purchase?...
Read 5 tweets
6 Jul
Tonight on @BBCNewsnight we'll be taking a closer look at the politics and economics of the Triple Lock in light of the @OBR_UK warning today that it could add £3bn to state pension bill next year unexpectedly.

Some thoughts on the figures...

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
...If average wages do rise at a rate of 8% year-on-year in July, a possibility flagged by the OBR, that would be the highest growth rate in the records of the ONS's Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) current series going back to 2000...ons.gov.uk/employmentandl… Image
...but what about beyond that?

Haven't got a monthly series, but using the BoE's dataset, which has annual estimates of compensation per employee & splicing it with the July AWE growth rates from the ONS it looks like it would be the fastest rate since the early 1990s... Image
Read 8 tweets
5 Jul
Important thread from @lewis_goodall here on the new Building Safety Bill - points which will be reflected in tonight's @BBCNewsnight from 22.30...

...as Lewis says, the Government has now accepted two key points of principle.

1) Leaseholders should not pay...
2) Substandard builders should be sued...
...given this - and given the manifest difficulties in leaseholders & even freeholders suing builders - would it not be the natural solution, as Sir Peter Bottomley advocates, for the Government to pay for the repairs upfront...
Read 9 tweets
14 Jun
I gather the Treasury has decided NOT to introduce any additional financial support for hospitality firms alongside the extension of restrictions beyond 21 June.

- 10% employer furlough contribution to kick in from 1 July

- no extra grants/loans
...will not go down with hospitality sector and business lobby groups who had argued that restriction extensions should be accompanied by additional support...
...Treasury sources say local authorities still have £1bn in grants to distribute to struggling firms from previous support packages - also point out that hospitality VAT cut still in place and access open to Recovery Loan Scheme...
Read 8 tweets
11 Jun
Here's Boris Johnson's remakrs today opening the G7.

Says after global financial crisis policy mistakes were made & "the recovery was not uniform across all part of society"...

gov.uk/government/spe… Image
...actually what mainly characterised the period after 2008 was how feeble it was relative to previous UK recoveries, rather than how unequal it was 👇

independent.co.uk/news/business/… Image
...inequality, as measured by the Gini co-efficient, was broadly flat in the decade after 2008... ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… Image
Read 4 tweets
4 Jun
Does trying to defund fossil fuel companies make economic and environmental sense?

🏭💸🔨🌎

A thread…🧵1/14
Extinction Rebellion has been exerting pressure on banks over their financing of fossil fuel companies.

Asset managers have come under increasing pressure to sell shares in these firms too...2/

independent.co.uk/climate-change…
Some argue such financial divestment campaigns are foolish and counterproductive.

Bill Gates claims they haven’t done any good...3/

ft.com/content/21009e…
Read 14 tweets

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