I gather the Treasury has decided NOT to introduce any additional financial support for hospitality firms alongside the extension of restrictions beyond 21 June.
- 10% employer furlough contribution to kick in from 1 July
- no extra grants/loans
...will not go down with hospitality sector and business lobby groups who had argued that restriction extensions should be accompanied by additional support...
...Treasury sources say local authorities still have £1bn in grants to distribute to struggling firms from previous support packages - also point out that hospitality VAT cut still in place and access open to Recovery Loan Scheme...
...on the furlough taper, they point out many hospitality firms have brought workers back from furlough & are complaining about labour shortages (i.e not a prospect of lack of work for existing workforce)
...Claire Walker of the British Chambers of Commerce still pushing for more support (furlough taper delay, cash grants, extension of VAT deferral & Business Rates relief)...
...Mike Cherry of the Federation of Small Business also calls for furlough taper to be delayed & points out that Business Rates 100% relief for hospitality & leisure is due to end on 30 June...
...Roger Barker of Institute of Directors says businesses are now facing a cliff-edge...
...UK Hospitality says support for firms needs to be "adjusted"...
...especially as one can plausibly argue that the long-term fiscal benefits will outweigh the short-term fiscal costs due to an increase in the future earning power of the kids affected...
This feels rather like the Brexit political economy chickens coming home to roost. 👇
As experts stressed before & after the referendum, the politics of trade deals comes down not just to aggregate economic outcomes but industrial/sectoral interests...
...In theory everyone wins economically from reducing trade barriers.
In practice the economic impact is uneven across different sectors of the economy - and that's often a political barrier to doing trade deals...
...The government's own modelling analysis shows a positive (albeit small - 0.01-0.02%) long run impact on UK GDP from a UK-Australia free trade deal...