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Ben Chu Profile picture
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11 Jun, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Here's Boris Johnson's remakrs today opening the G7.

Says after global financial crisis policy mistakes were made & "the recovery was not uniform across all part of society"...

gov.uk/government/spe… Image
...actually what mainly characterised the period after 2008 was how feeble it was relative to previous UK recoveries, rather than how unequal it was 👇

independent.co.uk/news/business/… Image
...inequality, as measured by the Gini co-efficient, was broadly flat in the decade after 2008... ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… Image
...although child poverty has risen, mainly as a result of the Government's benefit cuts...
jrf.org.uk/data/poverty-l… Image

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More from @BenChu_

Ben Chu Profile picture
14 Jun
I gather the Treasury has decided NOT to introduce any additional financial support for hospitality firms alongside the extension of restrictions beyond 21 June.

- 10% employer furlough contribution to kick in from 1 July

- no extra grants/loans
...will not go down with hospitality sector and business lobby groups who had argued that restriction extensions should be accompanied by additional support...
...Treasury sources say local authorities still have £1bn in grants to distribute to struggling firms from previous support packages - also point out that hospitality VAT cut still in place and access open to Recovery Loan Scheme...
Read 8 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
4 Jun
Does trying to defund fossil fuel companies make economic and environmental sense?

🏭💸🔨🌎

A thread…🧵1/14
Extinction Rebellion has been exerting pressure on banks over their financing of fossil fuel companies.

Asset managers have come under increasing pressure to sell shares in these firms too...2/

independent.co.uk/climate-change…
Some argue such financial divestment campaigns are foolish and counterproductive.

Bill Gates claims they haven’t done any good...3/

ft.com/content/21009e…
Read 14 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
3 Jun
The framing of this polling by @PublicFirst_PF is questionable.

Why would taxes need to rise to pay for *catch up* tuition?

By definition it's a *one-off* bump in expenditure not an increase in the structural deficit requiring remedial fiscal action...

cps.org.uk/files/reports/… Image
...clear argument, as @TimPitt11 says, for treating it like emergency furlough spending & temporarily increasing public borrowing to cover it....
...especially as one can plausibly argue that the long-term fiscal benefits will outweigh the short-term fiscal costs due to an increase in the future earning power of the kids affected...
Read 6 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
19 May
Is the UK economy in danger of becoming the new Italy?

🇬🇧🇮🇹🤦‍♂️

A thread...1/23🧵
...@resfoundation and @CEP_LSE raised this prospect as they launched their Economy 2030 research programme yesterday…2/23

economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/wp-content/upl…
...So let's look at why it’s such a dire prospect and whether or not it’s possible.

Italy’s a good comparator country for the UK because recently as the 1980s it was broadly equal in economic size, population and prosperity…3/23
Read 23 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
18 May
This feels rather like the Brexit political economy chickens coming home to roost. 👇

As experts stressed before & after the referendum, the politics of trade deals comes down not just to aggregate economic outcomes but industrial/sectoral interests...

...In theory everyone wins economically from reducing trade barriers.

In practice the economic impact is uneven across different sectors of the economy - and that's often a political barrier to doing trade deals...
...The government's own modelling analysis shows a positive (albeit small - 0.01-0.02%) long run impact on UK GDP from a UK-Australia free trade deal...

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Read 8 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
14 May
European official data (Eurostat) and UK official data (ONS) have shown a somewhat different picture on post-Brexit trade patterns.

🚄🚚🇬🇧🇪🇺

What's going on?

A thread...1/11
...This discrepancy has been flagged by @thom_sampson ...2/11

...the Eurostat data shows a significantly larger fall in UK to EU goods exports than the ONS data

(Note: this comparison doesn't include March - Eurostat data for that month isn't out yet though ONS's is)...3/11

...
Read 12 tweets

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