Thread by @AhsanDeliri

Some COVID/Vaccine thoughts.
I’m not an evolutionary biologist but I can deduce the following problem set and from it make predictions. Open to error correction of course. Novel biological agent released globally. Mutations start upon first interaction with patient 0.

We’ve got multiplicity problems here. The virus is an infinity problem. The immune system is another infinity problem. A person in isolation is a different creature to model compared to someone who is interacting with society at large.

When you engage with the enemy, it learns from you. If you vaccinate in phases, you give the virus the opportunity to learn and adapt. This isn’t rocket science. It’s just evolving as it would. When a person gets a vaccine, they don’t become immune instantly.

The immune system takes time to acquire the information from the vaccine in order to ready the defences. Now you got a person who is vaccinated but not yet immune interacting with someone who is asymptomatic. What happens then?

It is natural to map it out. The body while learning about the enemy from the vaccine all is sudden is facing the real threat. The selection pressures dictate that something will change. The variations are naturally expected.

The fact that the follow the science crowd can’t fathom to reason from first principles an approximation of the likely outcomes is startling. I imagine there are evolutionary biologists who have a much more precise understanding of all of this.

I’m not an expert and I don’t rely on data and peer reviewed papers when the system I’m faced with is an open one with unknown variance at play. In that case how should one respond?

Luckily we managed to survive for 1000s of years before science was a thing. I’m not anti science. I’m pro science and pro pattern recognition.
The people pushing science today are rigid. They want controlled verified data.

Sorry. Nature doesn’t play by your rules. She will give you noise and data. Not much of it will be clean. Stop thinking of science as some lab coat operation as portrayed on screen. Our pattern recognition system predates our ability to even speak.

It knows. Just listen to it. Jabs brings variants. Which means more jabs. About that jab though, if you stop and think. How do you mass manufacture a jab? What part of the bell curve do you cover? What about dosage?

We all know it’s not always the poison but the amount of it you ingest. Everyone is given the same amount. It’s going to turn out in ways you didn’t expect. Guess it comes down to the thing we always refer back to.

Organic systems are adapt and survive. Except us. We done become stupid enough to foolishly think we’re going to upgrade to command and control without realizing that it’s actually a downgrade.

Just look at all our fancy technologies, from bullets, to encryption, to space stations. No wonder we feel invincible. But then again a few droplets of adapt and survive have blown the system right up.

In summary. Have some humility. Stop citing science when it’s just another false misdirection. Don’t be so sure about jabs and more jabs. Don’t talk down to people who disagree with you.
Most of all. Survive. Mother fucker. We can debate later.