Thanks to @TimListerCNN for including my thoughts in this @CNN report on the ISKP threat and on the future Jihadist landscape in Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover of the country. cnn.com/2021/08/26/asi…
“However, Abdul Syed, a researcher and author on militant movements in Afghanistan and Pakistan, says that through devastating attacks in Kabul and Jalalabad, IS-K "has transformed to a new shape for a long battle in Afghanistan."
“He told CNN that it enjoys support from radical Salafists in several provinces.”
“Abdul Syed, who has studied the Pakistani Taliban in depth, notes that the fall of Kabul resulted in around 800 TTP prisoners being freed, including the group's deputy emir.”
“The TTP renewed their oath of allegiance to the Taliban and exhorted their members to follow in the footsteps of their Afghan counterparts.”
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
I don’t know when I will be able to write a piece on heartbreaking developments in Kabul but meantime, a thread on Islamic State Khurasan Province as I am seeing both interest and confusion about the group. 1/n
As feared, the so-called Islamic State Khurasan Province (ISKP) claimed today's devastating attack killing a dozen US soldiers and 60+ Afghan civilians. This is a big blow to US military and it also undermines Taliban's claim of having a monopoly over violence in Afghanistan. 2/n
I have been warning for the last year that ISKP is taking a new shape since Feb2020,& becoming more dangerous. By that time, it had been routed from strongholds in Nangarhar & Kunar to intense US CT operations,🇦🇫forces & Taliban actions. But I saw signs of a swift resurgence. 3/n
Ehsanullah Ehsan, a TTP & JuA former spokesman, reveals some interesting information of 🇦🇫Taliban relations with the most radical anti-Pak TTP group, led by Umar Khalid Khurasani, known TTP Mohmand, separated from TTP in 2014, named itself JuA & remerged in TTP in Aug 2020. 1/7
Ehsan criticizes all such Pakistani media analyses, claiming whether the TTP Khurasani group has severe relations with the Afghan Taliban. He counts three examples as evidence that JuA enjoys good mutual relations with the Afghan Taliban inside Afghanistan. 2/7
According to him, AT took strict actions on the TTP Mohammand complaints against its important commander in Kunar, Haji Abdul Rahim, in 2012 and removed him from his responsibility. Rahim is a LeT linked Afghan Salafist commander affiliated with the AT. 3/7
ISKP has released a propaganda video announcing its "return in Khurasan" with a new strategy of attacks. The 27 min video bashes the Taliban on its peace negotiations with the US, criticizes Pakistan, and shows footage of its attacks in Nangarhar, Kabul, and Peshawar. 1/n
The video starts with an extract from the slain TB military chief Mullah Dadullah's interview with AQ As-Sahab media conducted in 2006 strictly rejecting any Taliban option for peace negotiations with the US, saying if anyone does so, he will be targeted similar to the US. 2/n
The videos claim that the Taliban have compromised their fundamentals, and they have left their path. To show these claims valid, the video includes statements extracts of Zalmai Khalilzad and Taliban political leadership, Suhail Shaheen and Abbas Stanikzai. 3/n
Without naming AQ, TTP issued a statement rejecting the latest UNSC committee on AQ/ISIL report and claims that neither a "global [jihadist] organization" nor any state helped mergers of various anti-state Pakistani jihadist groups into TTP last year. 1/n
The UNCS report published on 3rd Feb claimed that AQ moderated the TTP mergers process. The TTP statement could be surprising for many observers, but there seem two strategic aims for TTP behind releasing this statement. 2/n
First, TTP remains a natural ally of the Afghan Taliban, both having historical roots. TTP is sheltered in the controlled areas in Afghanistan. Thus, TTP will want the AT soon to reach power, for which the AQ's presence in Afghanistan remains a major obstacle. 3/n
The latest UNSC Committee report on AQ and IS and its associated groups and members has some latest information about both groups in Afghanistan and their relations with Afghan and Pakistani Taliban. 1/9
The report estimates TTP, ISKP, and AQ strengthen in Afghanistan, respectively, maximum 6000, 2200, and 500 respectively. The report claims that ISKP Central Asian members defected and joined IMU in Northern Afghanistan. 2/9
The report claims that AQ maintains close links both with TTP and Afghan Taliban and is spread across at least 11 Afghan provinces: Badakhshan, Ghazni, Helmand, Khost, Kunar, Kunduz, Logar, Nangarhar, Nuristan, Paktiya, and Zabul. 3/9
TTP issued a statement confirming its two senior commanders' assassination, blaming it on the Pakistani security agencies. Both originally belonged to JuA or TTP Mohmand. The statement condemns the news reports which claimed these assassinations as intra-TTP fighting. 1/6
Several TTP senior commanders are assassinated in Kunar-Nangarhar in the last two years, but it is the first time TTP issued such a statement on these mysterious killings. The statement has three important points. 2/6
First, TTP claims their assassination location in the Methay area of Mohmand agency, which is few kilometers away from the Baharabad-Shonkray locality of the Sarkani district of Kunar province, where local sources confirmed that this attack took place. 3/6