Thread by @abdsayedd

I don’t know when I will be able to write a piece on heartbreaking developments in Kabul but meantime, a thread on Islamic State Khurasan Province as I am seeing both interest and confusion about the group. 1/n

As feared, the so-called Islamic State Khurasan Province (ISKP) claimed today's devastating attack killing a dozen US soldiers and 60+ Afghan civilians. This is a big blow to US military and it also undermines Taliban's claim of having a monopoly over violence in Afghanistan. 2/n

I have been warning for the last year that ISKP is taking a new shape since Feb2020,& becoming more dangerous. By that time, it had been routed from strongholds in Nangarhar & Kunar to intense US CT operations,🇦🇫forces & Taliban actions. But I saw signs of a swift resurgence. 3/n

First, it announced and started planning a long new war against the Taliban, anticipating in light of US-Taliban deal that Taliban will soon take power in Kabul with the US withdrawal. I saw signs in Nangarhar & Kunar that it started gathering recruits for this new campaign. 4/n

The ISKP’s emir Dr. Shahab al-Muhajir, appointed in May 2020, also announced a new urban terrorism campaign against the Taliban, the Afghan government, and "their US masters." 5/n

These threats quickly proved true when ISKP carried out some deadly & sophisticated attacks in Kabul and Jalalabad cities, like the Nangarhar jail attack Aug 2020. 6/n

Why was/is ISKP able to hit Kabul so hard?It is important to note that ISKP has been drawing its new leadership and operational cadres from Kabul after the arrests/killing/surrenders of hundreds of its cadres, including political and military leadership..... . 7/n

..... due to the loss of territory in Nangarhar and KunarThe ISKP Kabul network is made up of battle-hardened, educated, and highly radicalized adherents of Salafism, even some Ikhwani remnants of the former Afghan Jihadists groups. 8/n

Post-9/11, some joined the Taliban for "the greater Jihad against the invaders" due to their al-Qaeda sympathy and connections. 9/n

The ISKP Kabul network also has splinters and defectors from the Taliban’s so-called Haqqani Network (HQN). Due to that, many have experience of urban warfare and conducting sophisticated attacks in Kabul for HQN over the years. 10/n

I believe the current conflation of ISKP and Haqqani Network is because of these splinters and defectors. When Afghan CT agencies arrested former HQN linked-terrorists who joined ISKP in Kabul, they assumed that HQN must be playing a role. 11/n

Many claimed the HQN field commanders were unhappy with the Doha deal, so they were carrying out terrorist attacks in Kabul in reaction to the Taliban peace deal with the US, but I never found good support for this theory. 12/n

Most don’t pay attention to ISKP literature & propaganda materials & also don’t track ISKP in Kunar & Nangarhar. As I do both, I can tell you ISKP declares killing Taliban & HQN to be a higher “religious duty” than the US and other “apostates.” ISKP followers believe this. 13/n

Under HQN top commander Bilal Zadran, HQN-ISKP fought a brutal war in ISKP strongholds in Kunar.

The history of militancy & jihad is very complicated in this region. It will get more complicated in future. I fear a lot more violence is possible due to complicated dynamics. 14/n