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Clint Watts Profile picture
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26 Aug, 6 tweets, 2 min read
As we see this first VBIED attack at Kabul airport, things to watch for to understand terrorists strength is frequency, pace & synchronization of attacks. If we see more tomorrow, shorter times between attacks, points to significant terrorist capability in Kabul #Afghanistan
This would be a significant negative indicator for viability of Kabul Airport as an extraction point
U.S. operating from airport for about 10 days, take ISIS-K, terror groups time to get in position, prep, move IED's etc. if pace, synchronization continues = bad. No CT resistance, all forces tied up with extraction, ground ops dangerous, air targeting in urban environment = no
sorry, should have typed explosive, don't have confirmation on exact make up of the detonation and typed from old memories.
.@RichardEngel just did update noting a suicide bomber

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More from @selectedwisdom

Clint Watts Profile picture
11 Sep
20 Years After #September11th thankful for opportunity @USArmy @FBI @CTCWP to work with amazing Americans & allies tracking down terrorists behind 9/11 & their spawn. I learned so much serving alongside the best people I've ever met in pursuit of the worst people on the planet.
#September11 attacks changed course of my life like many other Americans, I’ve learned a lot, but in my work and travels in the 'War on Terror', online and in the real world, I’ve arrived at no hot takes, no definitive conclusions, no exact theories or absolutes.
There will always be terrorists & America will always need to counter them. Some will hide in Afghanistan, some will be in your neighborhood. Thanks to all who continue to serve and protect all Americans against future terrorists attacks.
Read 4 tweets
Clint Watts Profile picture
26 Aug
For those confused on ISIS-K why they’d want to attack US & Taliban, lots of intricacies but short, summary version - Taliban aligned to Al Qaeda remnants (Haqqani Network, etc), ISIS rivals of al Qaeda, biggest difference between ISIS and al Qaeda is generational
ISIS-K operates against both US and Taliban-Al Qaeda, would like to hurt both. al Qaeda, older, more ideas first, violence to support. ISIS younger, more violence first, ideas later. (Simplified, there are many books about this)
.@dbyman does great work on these differences and here’s one of his explainers google.com/amp/s/www.broo…
Read 8 tweets
Clint Watts Profile picture
22 Aug
Despite way it’s presented, Taliban took Afghanistan but they don’t control everything within AFG. Lots of disparate groups, pockets of resistance and terrorist (infighting) competition is increasing nytimes.com/2021/08/21/wor…
“U.S. officials said the most serious current threat was that Afghanistan’s Islamic State branch would attempt an attack that would both hurt the Americans and damage the Taliban’s sense of control.”
Complex terrorist competition makes safe removal of all Americans particularly challenging if evacuees are spread in areas where different militant groups operate or initiate fighting against Taliban. Situation is not bi- polar, (US v. Taliban) its multi-polar
Read 5 tweets
Clint Watts Profile picture
21 Aug
Sounds like a solid, well thought out plan.
Next week on #NavySealTV O'Neill and 9 guys kill COVID-19 with a .50Cal rifle and a claymore mine (if it were real that is)
And if you like that episode of #NavySealTV, don't miss the Labor Day special where 9 guys use hand-to-hand combat to "choke out" climate change #GettinHotInHere (Literally)
Read 4 tweets
Clint Watts Profile picture
15 Jul
Certainly wonder if this document is what drove high confidence assessment by 🇺🇸 Intel community “Kremlin papers appear to show Putin’s plot to put Trump in White House” theguardian.com/world/2021/jul…
.@lukeharding1968 reporting is always good so trust his analysis of document's authenticity & the document also mirrors what we know from observation of Kremlin's 3 prong influence of election 2016 - hacking, social media, in-person operations
here's the article to go with above chart securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/so-what-did-we…
Read 5 tweets
Clint Watts Profile picture
7 Jul
New update on domestic extremism - “July 6 Update On The Jan 6 Insurrection: Domestic Extremism in the U.S., 6 months later” clintwatts.substack.com/p/the-july-6-u…
What’s changed since the insurrection, law enforcement pressure and internal disagreement have led to splintering amongst chapters in large militias. But young neo-Nazi growth online continues & they are meeting up in person
Those extremists accelerating, organizing in last 6 months are collectives better with technology & not under investigative pressure. Hence younger white supremacists.
Read 4 tweets

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