Day 3 of tracking 'NPHETs Exit' with it appears more certainty that its a date in late September. Today's 1866 cases as a blue dot are 103% last Weds & so far its a very encouraging better than minimal. Only 3 days but that's cutting into the possible peak in the near future /1 Image
This carries into hospitalisations although the increased incidence in older groups makes me feel this is more precarious - indicated by week increases
332 Hospital is 136% last week
332 New Hospital Cases this week is 152% previous week
332 NHC is 2.6% of cases to Aug19 /2 Image
ICU occupancy is not so comfortable, here we are more on Optomistic but the rate of increase is slower so that may fall back. Very little wiggle room
61 ICU is 117% last week
37 ICU admissions this week is 103% previous week
37 ICU admissions is 14% of NHC to August 23rd /3 Image
What concerns me is the rapidly increasing incidence is the most vulnerable age group, the over 85s. Yesterday that had trebled in 14 days & it was up again today. With no HSE press conference we didn't here why but suspicion is nursing home outbreaks /4
The HPSC deaths bulletin to 21/08 has 5 nursing home deaths in it - given the rise in over 85s cases, the age between cases & deaths & dreadful recent experience in the north with 130 such outbreaks we may see a lot of such deaths in the next weeks /5
The leaks from the CMO letter this evening make it clear that we are not going to see restrictions coming back to control cases - rather the argument is around how soon more opening up with happen with a 90% 16+ fully vaccinated target liable to be reached as cases peak /6 Image
Hard not to see how that will mean anything other than 100s of additional deaths, most of them in late September & then being reported through the months up to xmas. It's what the north & England (164 today alone) have been going through for weeks /7
Likewise this NPHETs Exit will involve a wave of school age infections. The unstated gamble here is that on a collective level few children will get very sick so the benefit of uninterrupted eduction for the many will outweigh that risk /8
And Covid19 will remain with us, indeed as we get very old may well be the cause of death for a lot of us. A permanent bad flu year for decades although a new generation of vaccines & the discovery of effective treatments may reduce that cost /9
This BTW is the optimistic scenario - at least it suggests an exit from the Pandemic as we have lived it for too long. Bad decisions about the economy V cost of elimination were made in February 2020 and now we live with those & hope any new variants are not that much /10
The roots of those bad decisions lie in the nature of the society we live in, one that prioritises the wealth of the few over the needs of the many. At least you've been vaccinated so you can be got back to work, a large proportion of the worlds population are cut off /11
I'm grimly fascinated by the way Electric Picnic seems to be what people most want to argue about. But music helps us through things and early on this became my theme tune of the pandemic as Boris embarked on his herd immunity experiment across the water

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More from @andrewflood

29 Aug
While I’m hopeful that our high & rising vaccination levels will prove enough over the next month to see cases fall from peak this threads a good data based counter view that so far the evidence is not that strong for this hope.
🀞🏻orπŸ™πŸ» time depending on your preference
The challenge now is that only short term data gives us a clue as in the last 2 weeks alone the remaining unvaccinated adult population has been cut by 1/3. But short term data bounces around with good days & bad days - right now they are good
And we are putting an enormous additional load on in terms of mass sports events, schools reopening, universities soon & probably a whole lot of additional relaxations rolling though September. But the unvaccinated should also be cut by at least another 1/3 in that timeframe
Read 4 tweets
28 Aug
Calling my final tracker NPHETs Exit becomes 'official' with this morning's announcement - todays 1997 cases are 94% last Sat & we have slightly negative growth for the week as the 12,640 cases this week are 99.7% previous - hopefully this better than expected track holds /1
Hospitalisation is still showing a working week on week increase but on the plot its not a problem so far as so far its better than the best NPHET scenario
324 hospital is 125% last Sat
337 new hospital cases this week is 139% last week
337 NHC is 2.7% of cases to Aug 22
/2
The initial tight grouping of curves makes ICU more ambiguous but it also appears to be following the least worst 'Reduced Transmission' path
61 ICU is 113% last Sat
37 ICU admissions this week is 116% previous
37 ICU admissions this week is 12% of NHC to Aug 25th
/3
Read 5 tweets
27 Aug
Todays 1875 cases are 89% of last Friday & on the NPHET's Exit plot are almost on Reduced Transmission curve which is well interesting. There are 12,768 cases this week which is 101% last week - a growth rate close to 0 despite the level of 'return to normal' /1
The hospital plot is also optimistic so far, below the RT curve but the rate of increase from last week is less reassuring if it continues into next week
326 hospital is 130% last Friday
344 new hospital cases this week is 154% last week
344 NHC is 2.7% of cases to Aug 21 /2
Not enough time has passed to separate out the least worst ICU curves but if case growth stays near zero then the ICU growth should be slow
59 ICU is 113% last Friday
36 ICU admissions this week is 116% last week
36 ICU admissions is 12.5% of NHC Aug24 /3
Read 9 tweets
27 Aug
NISRA total of Covid19 deaths in the north rises to 3140 - thats the figure to 20th August its likely the real total is last least 3181 and more likely 3197. April excess deaths peak across pandemic has also been exceeded which confirms error of opening too much too early /1 ImageImageImage
I messed up with my thread linking last week with the result that there are two weeks of my daily stats updates at the linked thread from two weeks back but will continue todays & the rest of next week below this one /2
Continuing pattern of a larger proportion of cases in the north occurring in over 60s but at least last weeks rapid rises in cases & severe outcomes has settled down. Now at 1690 deaths per millions, 165% the rate per million in the south /3 ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
11 Aug
There a seriously misleading error on the HSE advice page about vaccinating 12-15 years olds where is says the hospital risk of Covid is 1 in 100,000. In fact 1% of those cases under 14 to December were hospitalised, 63 in 5-14 are group, 60 in 0 to 4.
This is the error & the stats to December for actual hospitalisations by age here - it was close to 1% at that point
www2.hse.ie/screening-and-… ImageImage
This stat appears in the CMO letter to the Minister of 26th July. It looks like NIAC may have just been talking of severe events in the 2 week period highlighted and not the entire pandemic? Image
Read 17 tweets
10 Aug
5th day with sizeable case increase, the 1508 cases today is 149% last Tuesday and has us on a path close to NPHET Central 2 scenario by end September (details follow).
11,282 cases this week are 123% last weeks
206 hospital is 116% last Tues
33 ICU is 114% last Tues
/1
Currently 2.2% cases hospital 12% of which go to ICU. Using those rates & taking as growth last 5 days cases,133% last week (10 days after opening indoors hospitality)
June 25 to end Sept;
346660cases
7417 hospital
867 ICU
Slightly under NPHET C2 with its 1150 deaths /2
Reporting of deaths in the south is much delayed, but we can see whats happening north of the border to get some inclination. DoH reported 41 deaths since July 30th which would typically by 55 NISRA deaths (slower more accurate count) /3
Read 13 tweets

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