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Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
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27 Aug, 9 tweets, 3 min read
Todays 1875 cases are 89% of last Friday & on the NPHET's Exit plot are almost on Reduced Transmission curve which is well interesting. There are 12,768 cases this week which is 101% last week - a growth rate close to 0 despite the level of 'return to normal' /1
The hospital plot is also optimistic so far, below the RT curve but the rate of increase from last week is less reassuring if it continues into next week
326 hospital is 130% last Friday
344 new hospital cases this week is 154% last week
344 NHC is 2.7% of cases to Aug 21 /2
Not enough time has passed to separate out the least worst ICU curves but if case growth stays near zero then the ICU growth should be slow
59 ICU is 113% last Friday
36 ICU admissions this week is 116% last week
36 ICU admissions is 12.5% of NHC Aug24 /3
We are reaching very high levels of over 16 vaccination - hence the hope that most restrictions can be removed by the end of next month
1st: 3,649,203 (+10,027) 73.3% (12+ 87.2%)
Full*: 3,318,661 (+21,420) 66.7% (12+ 79.3%) 18+ 87%
/4
I had a thread on what it all means yesterday - certainly not simply good news as there will be an ongoing cost but yet possibly the end of the pandemic as we have known it (indeed to an extent that is already underway)
It's very welcome that cases in the north have stopped rising.
All Ireland stats NI/ RoI
Cases 1875+1875=3750
Hospital 383+326=709
ICU 45+59=104
1st vaccine 4,928,296 (+11,253) 71.8%
Full 4,474,219 (+22,829) 65.2%

/5
BTW I am not 100% sure what the 'Reduced Transmission' scenario is in the NPHET slide - transmission from children perhaps? Or a high vaccine effectiveness
I went back & listened to that bit of the press conference where Nolan explains Reduced Transmission as if we "happened to reduce social contacts (I don’t think that has happened) or where the vaccines were more effective than expected" /7
This thread explain what I am doing with the NPHET scenarios & some of the discussion around them

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More from @andrewflood

Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
29 Aug
While I’m hopeful that our high & rising vaccination levels will prove enough over the next month to see cases fall from peak this threads a good data based counter view that so far the evidence is not that strong for this hope.
🤞🏻or🙏🏻 time depending on your preference
The challenge now is that only short term data gives us a clue as in the last 2 weeks alone the remaining unvaccinated adult population has been cut by 1/3. But short term data bounces around with good days & bad days - right now they are good
And we are putting an enormous additional load on in terms of mass sports events, schools reopening, universities soon & probably a whole lot of additional relaxations rolling though September. But the unvaccinated should also be cut by at least another 1/3 in that timeframe
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
28 Aug
Calling my final tracker NPHETs Exit becomes 'official' with this morning's announcement - todays 1997 cases are 94% last Sat & we have slightly negative growth for the week as the 12,640 cases this week are 99.7% previous - hopefully this better than expected track holds /1
Hospitalisation is still showing a working week on week increase but on the plot its not a problem so far as so far its better than the best NPHET scenario
324 hospital is 125% last Sat
337 new hospital cases this week is 139% last week
337 NHC is 2.7% of cases to Aug 22
/2
The initial tight grouping of curves makes ICU more ambiguous but it also appears to be following the least worst 'Reduced Transmission' path
61 ICU is 113% last Sat
37 ICU admissions this week is 116% previous
37 ICU admissions this week is 12% of NHC to Aug 25th
/3
Read 5 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
27 Aug
NISRA total of Covid19 deaths in the north rises to 3140 - thats the figure to 20th August its likely the real total is last least 3181 and more likely 3197. April excess deaths peak across pandemic has also been exceeded which confirms error of opening too much too early /1 ImageImageImage
I messed up with my thread linking last week with the result that there are two weeks of my daily stats updates at the linked thread from two weeks back but will continue todays & the rest of next week below this one /2
Continuing pattern of a larger proportion of cases in the north occurring in over 60s but at least last weeks rapid rises in cases & severe outcomes has settled down. Now at 1690 deaths per millions, 165% the rate per million in the south /3 ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
26 Aug
Day 3 of tracking 'NPHETs Exit' with it appears more certainty that its a date in late September. Today's 1866 cases as a blue dot are 103% last Weds & so far its a very encouraging better than minimal. Only 3 days but that's cutting into the possible peak in the near future /1 Image
This carries into hospitalisations although the increased incidence in older groups makes me feel this is more precarious - indicated by week increases
332 Hospital is 136% last week
332 New Hospital Cases this week is 152% previous week
332 NHC is 2.6% of cases to Aug19 /2 Image
ICU occupancy is not so comfortable, here we are more on Optomistic but the rate of increase is slower so that may fall back. Very little wiggle room
61 ICU is 117% last week
37 ICU admissions this week is 103% previous week
37 ICU admissions is 14% of NHC to August 23rd /3 Image
Read 13 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
11 Aug
There a seriously misleading error on the HSE advice page about vaccinating 12-15 years olds where is says the hospital risk of Covid is 1 in 100,000. In fact 1% of those cases under 14 to December were hospitalised, 63 in 5-14 are group, 60 in 0 to 4.
This is the error & the stats to December for actual hospitalisations by age here - it was close to 1% at that point
www2.hse.ie/screening-and-… ImageImage
This stat appears in the CMO letter to the Minister of 26th July. It looks like NIAC may have just been talking of severe events in the 2 week period highlighted and not the entire pandemic? Image
Read 17 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
10 Aug
5th day with sizeable case increase, the 1508 cases today is 149% last Tuesday and has us on a path close to NPHET Central 2 scenario by end September (details follow).
11,282 cases this week are 123% last weeks
206 hospital is 116% last Tues
33 ICU is 114% last Tues
/1
Currently 2.2% cases hospital 12% of which go to ICU. Using those rates & taking as growth last 5 days cases,133% last week (10 days after opening indoors hospitality)
June 25 to end Sept;
346660cases
7417 hospital
867 ICU
Slightly under NPHET C2 with its 1150 deaths /2
Reporting of deaths in the south is much delayed, but we can see whats happening north of the border to get some inclination. DoH reported 41 deaths since July 30th which would typically by 55 NISRA deaths (slower more accurate count) /3
Read 13 tweets

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