Thread by @andrewflood

Calling my final tracker NPHETs Exit becomes 'official' with this morning's announcement - todays 1997 cases are 94% last Sat & we have slightly negative growth for the week as the 12,640 cases this week are 99.7% previous - hopefully this better than expected track holds /1

Hospitalisation is still showing a working week on week increase but on the plot its not a problem so far as so far its better than the best NPHET scenario
324 hospital is 125% last Sat
337 new hospital cases this week is 139% last week
337 NHC is 2.7% of cases to Aug 22
/2

The initial tight grouping of curves makes ICU more ambiguous but it also appears to be following the least worst 'Reduced Transmission' path
61 ICU is 113% last Sat
37 ICU admissions this week is 116% previous
37 ICU admissions this week is 12% of NHC to Aug 25th
/3

Doing well in these 1st days is a huge deal as every day more people are fully vaccinated. In fact in less than 2 weeks the vulnerable remainder has shrunk by 1/3 from 19% of adults on August 15 to 12% today. Looking at vaccination stats that way better shows the large gains /4

I explain methods & sources I'm using for this tracking of NPHETs Exit in the linked thread. So far though it really is quite hopeful of an exit thats a lot less costly than worst fears, perhaps because vaccine reduces transmission more than thought /5

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1430488552966664203?s=20