Looking at voters who switched from Labour to Conservative either in 2017 or 2019, compared with other Con and Lab voters. All data from BES internet panel

56% of those who switched self-identify as working class (36% of Cons and 49% of Lab) /1
A third of 'switchers' think neither party looks after their local area (compared with 21% Cons and 15% Lab)

I think this is an important factor - and need to better understand the difference people draw between someone who stands up for them/their area and regional devo /2
When asked to place themselves on a left-right scale more than half the 'switchers' choose either the mid-point of the scale or 'don't know' (34% Con and 30% Lab) /3
And finally when asked about their party identity more of the switchers from Labour to the Conservatives identified with Labour than with their new party.

31% Con id 33% Labour id 27% no party id /4

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More from @p_surridge

11 May
Class, values and voting - a thread ⬇️

Some debate today about how we should think about social class. Been a topic for the last 40 years in political sociology, not going to be resolved on twitter but for Labour it doesn’t really matter... /1
...as however you think of ‘working class’ Labour are losing in that group. The key to unlocking this (as shown in the thread) is thinking about economic and social values (which have their roots in social positions) and how people engage with these as identities.

/2
First ‘class’ measured by occupation, housing and social grade

Bars show the Con lead over Lab, lines show distribution of electorate across the categories

/3
Read 14 tweets
11 May
Will get into definitions of class later - here is occupational class by values group from the @BESResearch random probability survey

The key point to take away:

Among both higher professionals and routine occupation groups more than 60% are on the 'left' BUT
For higher professional this is 35% Liberal, 17% moderate and 8% 'authoritarian'
For routine occupations this is 8% Liberal, 21% moderate and 31% authoritarian.

This is the challenge if you want to unite the 'left'
It really doesn't matter *how* you measure class you will find this divide - there are two options:

1. Make economics more salient where the common ground is
2. Find a way to at least talk to the 'moderates' on the 2nd dimension (together moderates + liberals are more than half)
Read 5 tweets
11 May
A snippet from the Rotherham Borough Council vote validation via rotherham.gov.uk/elections-voti…
We are reading so much into what 'Red Wall' and other voters think from the votes of < 1/3rd of voters who are far from a random sample of voters in a given area.

It is information to use, but it is a long way from perfect information and should be used with caution.
Also is it too much to ask that councils reported this in a standardised way?
Read 5 tweets
26 Feb 20
A short thread on my piece (behind paywall) here:

journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.11…

I look at groups of seats either lost or gained by Labour in 10 or 15 vs those lost or gained in 17 or 19 to set up a comparison pre Brexit and Corbyn and post-Brexit and Corbyn.
First, evidence on EU referendum vote. Seats lost in 2010 or 2015 are as 'leave' voting as those lost in 17 or 19
Seats lost 10/15 are very similar to seats lost 17/19 in terms of socio-economic characteristics. (And potentially worryingly for Labour those held on to are more similar to losses than gains)
Read 6 tweets
4 Feb 20
My piece from @UKandEU report out today shows the value positions of voters for Labour and Conservatives in 2017 by the parties they were likely to vote for in June 2019 1/n
Some key points:

The divide between Lab17/Lab and Lab17/LD vs Lab17 and Brexit Party is well known now and a challenge for Labour to unite those voters 2/n
But the Lab17/Con voters are different on both social values (closer to all groups of Con17 voters than Lab17 voters) *and* on economics. This matters because these switchers cost Labour twice (as a loss to them and a gain for Conservatives). 3/n
Read 5 tweets
13 Jan 20
Something even more long-term to illustrate how the Labour vote has changed. Between 92 and 2010 the Labour voters were in roughly the same average position on social liberalism scale (scales run -2 - +2 low is lib and left) more or less in the centre of the scale (at 0) 1/3
They moved on average to a more liberal position in 2015 (as they gained liberal voters from LDs and lost socially Conservative voters to UKIP). This was further compounded in 2017. 2/3
Will need to wait a few months to be able to add the 2019 point - anyone fancy a game of pin the Labour vote on the chart? 3/3
Read 4 tweets

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