Thread by @BjornLomborg

New Nature study shows net-zero will cost each American more than $11,000 every year by 2050

That's ~100x more expensive than what Americans are willing to pay

Current, super-expensive climate policy simply won't get net-zero past voters

nature.com/articles/s4155…

New Nature study shows net-zero will cost the US more than 12% of its GDP every year by 2050

For comparison, Social Security today costs 5% of US GDP and Medicare/Medicaid 6.4%

Implausible voters will accept such cost of net-zero

cbo.gov/system/files/2…
nature.com/articles/s4155…

New Nature study shows net-zero will cost the US more than $4 trillion every year by 2050

For comparison, Social Security today costs $1.1tr and Medicare/Medicaid $1.4tr

Implausible voters will accept such cost of net-zero

cbo.gov/system/files/2…
nature.com/articles/s4155…

New Nature study shows that national, uniform climate policy to reduce emissions 80% (still 20% from net-zero) will cost 5.6% of US GDP ($2.1 trillion per year)

Some states will pay less (e.g. California), some will pay much more (Louisiana)

nature.com/articles/s4155…

New Nature study shows that letting states set their own climate policy costs slightly more

but is politically more realistic

Reducing emissions 80% will cost 5.9% of US GDP ($2.2 trillion per year)

nature.com/articles/s4155…

Not surprising that 20% lower than 2005 by 2050 is affordable

— 2020 was 30.5% lower (although Covid)

But "cost increases dramatically from moderate to ambitious" climate policy

It is implausible to sell $1000s or more in annual costs to most voters

nature.com/articles/s4155…

Instead of high-cost climate policies telling people 'no'

We should dramatically ramp up investment in green R&D, from $15 to $100bn/yr (much cheaper)

Such innovation can drive price of low-CO₂ energy down below fossil fuels and help everyone switch

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…