Global inequality is lower today than last 140 years

Ineq increase hugely in 1800s bc industrialized world pulls away

Ineq decline as poor world (China, India) starts gaining

Gini: 0=no ineq, 1= total ineq

New, amazing data from @PikettyLeMonde & co
wid.world/document/longr… Image
Income development 1820-2020:

In China, per person income dropped from 82% of world average in 1820 down to 20% in 1980, before rising to 109% in 2020

In Indonesia, it dropped from 57% in 1820 to 16% in 1950, up to 68% in 2020

wid.world/document/longr… Image
What drives global inequality?

Blue line shows domestic inequality: high, but lower in 1950s-80s

Orange line shows inequality between nations: increase dramatically after rich world industrialization, decline after 1980 as poor world is gaining again

wid.world/document/longr… Image
Who gained the most in the last 40 years of growth:

Much of the world's poor
The very richest

The relative losers were the lower and middle-classes in rich and middle-income countries (jobs outsourced)

wid.world/document/longr… Image
Who gained in income over the last 200 years?

Relatively: the world's top 30% (the first to industrialize, OECD)

Absolute: everyone got to be much, much better off — even the worst saw their incomes >5x

wid.world/document/longr… Image
Definition of global inequality treats entire world as one:

Just like inequality in, say, the US places all US individuals from lowest to highest income

Global inequality places all citizens from every nation from lowest to highest income

(see: gabriel-zucman.eu/files/teaching…)
It is a great data paper collating an immense amount of data to help us get a clearer view on incomes over the past 200 years

Cudos to Chancel & Piketty

(but take their 1800s industrialization powered by exploitation of 3rd world with grains of salt)

wid.world/document/longr…

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More from @BjornLomborg

6 Sep
The world’s top medical editors argue for climate action with core argument: Global heat deaths for 65+ increased 50+%

But don’t tell you that the number of 65+ has increased almost as much

Oops

bmj.com/content/374/bm…, bmj.com/content/374/bm…, thelancet.com/journals/lance…
The world’s top medical editors argue for climate action

With amateur mistake: they forget to adjust for more old people

They should correct their paper (but of course, it would also neuter it)

bmj.com/content/374/bm…, bmj.com/content/374/bm…, thelancet.com/journals/lance…
The world’s top medical editors for climate action

Vastly overstating heat deaths
And entirely ignoring dramatic reduction in cold deaths

How are we well informed by this?

bmj.com/content/374/bm…, bmj.com/content/374/bm…, thelancet.com/journals/lance… ihmeuw.org/5k7m
Read 6 tweets
1 Sep
You're being lied to:

Report claims disasters 5x over past 50 years

But because of better reporting

How do we know?

Take well-measured US tornados:

WMO thinks they've 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝟭𝟯𝘅
In reality, 𝗵𝗮𝗹𝘃𝗲𝗱
library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?ex…
bbc.com/news/science-e…
Incompetent WMO report tells you that disasters 5x over past 50 years

But because of better reporting

How do we know?

Take well-measured US hurricanes:

WMO thinks they've 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝟰𝘅
They haven't increased at all

library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?ex…
bbc.com/news/science-e…
You're being lied to:

Report claims disasters 5x over past 50 years

But because of better reporting

How do we know?

Take well-measured US tornados:

WMO thinks they've 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝟭𝟯𝘅
In reality, 𝗵𝗮𝗹𝘃𝗲𝗱
library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?ex…
bbc.com/news/science-e…
Read 8 tweets
28 Aug
New Nature study shows net-zero will cost each American more than $11,000 every year by 2050

That's ~100x more expensive than what Americans are willing to pay

Current, super-expensive climate policy simply won't get net-zero past voters

nature.com/articles/s4155…
New Nature study shows net-zero will cost the US more than 12% of its GDP every year by 2050

For comparison, Social Security today costs 5% of US GDP and Medicare/Medicaid 6.4%

Implausible voters will accept such cost of net-zero

cbo.gov/system/files/2…
nature.com/articles/s4155…
New Nature study shows net-zero will cost the US more than $4 trillion every year by 2050

For comparison, Social Security today costs $1.1tr and Medicare/Medicaid $1.4tr

Implausible voters will accept such cost of net-zero

cbo.gov/system/files/2…
nature.com/articles/s4155…
Read 7 tweets
26 Aug
It seems truth often matters little when pushing climate crisis

Claim in media around world that ‘climate crisis’ makes more heat deaths

No: for constant population, both heat and cold deaths down

Thread

edition.cnn.com/2021/08/19/hea…
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
ihmeuw.org/5d6x
We only see more cold and heat deaths if we don’t adjust for population:

because more and especially many more older people

We are badly informed when media claims that this is because of climate

edition.cnn.com/2021/08/19/hea…
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
ihmeuw.org/5d6x
In general, all age groups die less of cold
Of 95+ year olds, 1.5% die each year from cold (29% die of all causes each year)

Heat deaths up, but from very low base, of 95+ year olds, 0.06% die each year

edition.cnn.com/2021/08/19/hea…
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
ihmeuw.org/5d6x
Read 5 tweets
22 Aug
Heatwave magnitude in the US was highest in the 1930s

How do we know? Follow the science:

It is the conclusion from the US Fourth National Climate Assessment "heat wave magnitude reached a maximum in the 1930s."

science2017.globalchange.gov/downloads/CSSR… p191
Heatwave magnitude in the US was highest in the 1930s

How do we know? Follow the science:

EPA has one — and only one — century-long heat wave indicator. It shows heatwaves strongest in 1930s decade and maxed in 1936

epa.gov/climate-indica…
The official climate information of the US government tells us that over the last century, US heatwaves peaked in the 1930s

This is incontrovertible

But some don't like this information

Climate scientist Dessler argues "that just doesn't look right"

Read 13 tweets
8 Aug
UN routinely warns us that we have just a few years left until catastrophe:

In 1972, half a century ago, Maurice Strong, first UN Environment Programme director warned that

the world had just 10 years to avoid catastrophe

arkivet.dn.se/sok/?searchTer… Image
UN routinely warns us that we have just a few years left until catastrophe:

In 1982, Tolba, head of UN Environment Programme told the world that it had just 18 years before

an environmental catastrophe as irreversible as any nuclear holocaust

timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1… Image
UN routinely warns us that we have just a few years left until catastrophe:

In 1989, a senior UN official warns Associated Press that we have to fix climate change by 1999

or climate change goes beyond human control

web.archive.org/web/2020111300… Image
Read 7 tweets

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