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Lion

28 Aug, 10 tweets, 7 min read

Now that most companies have reported earnings, it is a good time to assess where current valuation multiples stand and the estimates of revenue CAGR for the next few years.

This is the consolidated graph with all the companies:

In this other one, I included some companies that I had to exclude in the first graph:
$AFRM
$SNOW
$DLO
$GLBE

The next graphs are grouped by industry.

E-Commerce

EV/GP NTM and EV/EBITDA NTM (for profitable Cos)

$AMZN 8.4x / 20.6x
$BABA 6.5x / 12.6
$SE 36.4x
$MELI 24.4x / 123x
$JD 4x / 32x
$W 7.4x / 44x
$SHOP 66x / 266x
$CPNG 10.6x
$ETSY 14.1x / 36.64x
$PDD 9.1x
$OZON 8.1x
$BIGC 21.2x
$GLBE 116x

Fintech and Payments

$V 22.6x / 29x
$MA 26.2x / 28.9x
$PYPL 26.3x / 40x
$SQ 22x / 109x
$COIN 9.7x / 19.3x
$AFRM 117x
$SOFI 20.3x / 94x
$UPST 22.4x / 123x
$LSPD 44x
$DLO 116x

Social Media and Digital Ads

$FB 9.7x / 14.4x
$GOOGL 12.3x / 17.2x
$PINS 16.2x / 42.7x
$SNAP 43.8x / 150.7x
$TWTR 13.8x / 30x
$ROKU 28.6x / 124.9x
$TTD 26.9x / 79.2x
$MTCH 17x / 35x
$MGNI 13.4x / 29.2x
$PUBM 7.5x / 18.6x

Mega Cap

$AAPL 16x / 20.2x
$MSFT 16.8x / 23.7x
$GOOGL 12.3x / 17.2x
$AMZN 8.4x / 21.6x
$FB 9.7x / 14.6x
$TCEHY 13.4x / 17.4x
$BABA 6.5x / 12.6
$TSLA 50.5x / 55x
$NVDA 32.4x / 50.9x
$NFLX 20x / 37.3x

SAAS

$TWLO 37.6x / 268x
$DOCU 35.2x / 134x
$SPLK 12.7x
$WDAY 16.4x / 46x
$NET 67.8x
$FSLY 23.1x
$PD 13.5x
$ADBE 21.3x / 37.8x
$ZM 33.3x / 63
$TEAM 41.9x
$SNOW 98.4x
$CRM 12.4x / 33x
$VEEV 33x / 65x
$CRWD 52x / 317x
$DDOG 42x / 277x
$OLO 36x
$NOW 24x / 61x
$OKTA 40x
$MDB 44x

Real Estate / Healthcare / Gig Economy / Gaming / Other

$FVRR 23.7x / 241x
$UPWK 13.9x / 170x
$Z 6.9x / 44.6x
$ABNB 18.5x / 67x
$RDFN 12.1x
$PTON 14.4x / 101x
$TDOC 15.4x / 72x
$GDRX 17.2x / 50x
$EGLX 15.7x
$SKLZ 8x
$AMD 17.6x / 31.1x
$RBLX 22.2x / 71x
$XPEL 21.7x / 41.4x

Valuation and growth are just some of the variables to take into account. But once you know a company really well, it can help to add at better valuations over time.

I have a feeling this is going to be an interesting September/October period. Let's keep compounding! 🔥📈

@BackpackerFI

Sharing with some friends:
@BackpackerFI @Invesquotes @caleb_investTML @Couch_Investor @Innovestor_ @7Innovator @IrnestKaplan @InvestmentTalkk @EugeneNg_VCap @StockMarketNerd @Brian_Stoffel_ @NeuroStockDoc @Mayhem4Markets @borrowed_ideas @skaushi @Keith_Wasserman @Badpak

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More from @Investing_Lion

Lion

@Investing_Lion

26 Aug

What is the most underfollowed fintwit account that is sharing quality content on a consistent basis?

@StockMarketNerd

Many interesting suggestions. Here is the list.
I have arranged it based on follower count:

10k+:
@StockMarketNerd @dhaval_kotecha @skaushi @plantmath1 @aadhansen @realEstateTrent @Crussian17 @hiddensmallcaps @caleb_investTML @lhamtil @SagaPartners @Badpak @qcapital2020

@Mayhem4Markets

5K+
@Mayhem4Markets @ecommerceshares @Invesquotes @MaxTheComrade @Varro_Analytics @InvestiAnalyst
@the10thman1 @joshtarasoff @RishiGosalia @GWInvestors @LaughingH20Cap @MultibaggerAnil @w_biltmore85 @Red_BULLish

Read 6 tweets

Lion

@Investing_Lion

5 Aug

This earnings season the market is adjusting post covid. Seems like we are back to a stock pickers market. One of the important variables to look for is multiple expansion.

The following graph is a comparison of this metric for some companies pre and post pandemic.

To calculate the multiple expansion of each company, I compared the average multiple of every quarter from 2018-2019 vs today, using the following metrics:
- EV/GP
- EV/EBITDA
- EV/FCF

This has some limitations as multiples in 2018-2019 may be considered high or low.

But I wanted to get an estimate of how the pandemic and its consequences have affected valuations.

I used only positive metrics, so if FCF or EBITDA multiples were negative, I excluded those from the average. Gross profit was always used.

Read 18 tweets

Lion

@Investing_Lion

24 Jul

I like to compare companies with different metrics. It helps me understand a little better each business. This time, I am sharing the metric Gross Profit / Employee.

Hope you find it interesting 🙂

This is the consolidated graph. The next graphs are grouped by industry 👇

1.E-Commerce

Gross Profit / Employee (FY 2020)

$ETSY $909k
$PDD $712K
$W $248k
$SHOP $234k
$BABA $179k
$GLBE $154K
$CPNG $148k
$BIGC $132k
$MELI $125k
$AMZN $120k
$OZON $100K
$JD $55K
$SE $54K

Fintech and Payments

Gross Profit / Employee (FY 2020)

$COIN $888K
$V $859K
$KPLT $612K
$SQ $499K
$MA $481k
$UPST $475k
$PYPL $431k
$FUTU $282k
$SOFI $279k
$AFTPY $260k
$DLO $198k
$MELI $126k
$LSPD $105k
$AFRM $63k

Read 10 tweets

Lion

@Investing_Lion

15 Jul

After a few volatile days, it is a good time to assess where current valuation multiples stand and the estimates of revenue CAGR for the next few years.

This is the consolidated graph with all the companies. The next graphs are grouped by industry.

E-Commerce

EV/GP NTM and EV/EBITDA NTM (for profitable Cos)

$AMZN 9.1x / 23.6x
$BABA 9.2x / 17.5
$SE 37.6x / 152x
$MELI 23x / 202x
$JD 4.7x / 34x
$W 6.7x / 34x
$SHOP 70x / 499x
$CPNG 17x
$ETSY 13x / 33x
$PDD 10x
$OZON 9.6x
$BIGC 26x
$WISH 2.4x
$GLBE 116x

Fintech and Payments

$V 25x / 29x
$MA 31x / 35x
$PYPL 29x / 44x
$SQ 18x / 115x
$AFTPY 37x / 196x
$COIN 9.4x / 21x
$AFRM 90x
$SOFI 11x / 113x
$UPST 15x / 139x
$FUTU 16x
$LSPD 40x
$DLO 85x
$KPLT 6.7x / 53x

Read 8 tweets

Lion

@Investing_Lion

28 Jun

The past 6 months I have been working to determine my personal (and biased) quality score for most of the companies on my checklist and others I see on fintwit.

Valuation was not a part of this score. Also, this list is not meant to be a stock recommendation.

In order to assign a quality score, I used standard parameters to score aspects such as:
- Management
- Culture
- Financial Resilience
- Moat
- Competitive landscape
- Potential
- Past performance
- Share dilution
- Risks

I am sharing this list for three reasons:

1. I put a lot of work and hours to this, so I thought that this might be useful for others on fintwit.

2. I benefit so much from investors constantly sharing valuable information in here, that I like to add some value in return.

Read 18 tweets

Lion

@Investing_Lion

25 Jun

Struggling with the decision to add between $BABA $AMZN or $JD 🤔

$AMZN
✅ E-commerce tailwinds
✅ AWS Cloud
✅ Ads business
✅ Solid moat with logistics
🔢 Good valuation
⛔ Size/Market Cap
⛔ Jeff Bezos out
⛔ Google and Microsoft Cloud

$BABA
✅ E-commerce tailwinds
✅ AliCloud
✅ Potential Multiple Expansion
✅ Margin Expansion w/Cloud
✅ Higher Growth %
🔢 Cheapest valuation
⛔ China Anti-trust
⛔ Jack Ma
⛔ More E-commerce competition

Read 5 tweets

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