Thread by @RyanMaue

Initial forecast for Tropical Depression 9 (Ida) from NHC went with 95-knots (Category 2) maximum prior to landfall.

That is 1 knot under Category 3 major hurricane, and it was noted this intensity was conservative.

nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2021/a…?

While we have a forecast track cone based upon historical errors (170 miles at 4 days) plopped on the map, there isn't a similar intensity uncertainty graphic that conveys information for intensity -- about 15 knots. Example would be 100-115 knots or Cat 3 or Cat 4.
Error trend:

The chart of average intensity errors shows last 30 years lumping all forecasts together. You could filter further by region, month, initial intensity, etc.
Intensity skill improvement has leveled off in past 10 years, or so.

Now it's important to note that NHC is not forecasting a range of results. They aren't putting out forecasts saying Ida could be 105 to 120 knots, but based upon previous errors, it's implied that there is inherent uncertainty.

And, it would be a big problem if NHC started out their forecast high at Cat 5, saying Ida has the maximum potential of 160 mph, and then issue a later forecast saying never mind. Thus, it's a balancing act.

I think some sort of graphic or messaging needs to be created that conveys the one Saffir-Simpson category historical intensity error. Perhaps a color coded chart.
I know this treads into probabilistic forecasting but maybe it's time for it. 🌀