Turns out the "extreme rainfall" records being reported by NY Times might be neglecting paper records in existence prior especially prior to the 1940s.
"The heavy downpour ... let loose upon the city and which probably broke all records for a similar period ... flooded subways, railroad tunnels, basements and streets ..."
"...bolts of lighting played a tattoo upon church steeples" (?)
July 28, 1913 RECORD RAINFALL FLOODS THE CITY
Sewer overflow swamps hotels
BACK GUSH FROM DRAINS 😲
Same infrastructure as today,. not built to withstand weather from 108-years ago 👇
Property Owners to Demand Relief from Inadequate Sewers
"From 4 o'clock to 4:12 more rain fell than had fallen in any other twelve minutes known to the Weather Bureau. The storm completely flooded and blocked the sewer system in many sections."
"The result was many inundated sub-basements, in which the water stood six feed deep"
August 28, 1983
"Thunderstorms dropped more than 2" of rain on the metropolitan area in a little more than an hour yesterday evening, stopping subway service on many lines and causing widespread flooding and extensive delays for weekend travelers on the ground and in the air."
Link to August 29, 1983 NY Times describing the deluge.
Hopefully paper records exist of weather observations (prior to digitization) that go back to 19th Century in NYC. It would be useful to compare recent extreme rains from Henri and Ida w/historical deluges reported in NY Times.
Do hourly precision records exist > 100 years ago?
I wish we had similar high-resolution radar & model based precipitation analysis in e.g. 1926 as we do today. But, w/rankings of heaviest 1-hour rainfall, hard to imagine Hurricane Ida (2021) was exceeded historically.
Everything came together perfectly for record inundation.
It's truly a pleasure reading newspaper articles about extreme weather -- hurricanes, floods, snowstorms -- from 50-100 years ago. The descriptions usually focus on individual experiences, sometimes with a comedic slant.
Tuesday, March 13, 1888 "Great Blizzard"
THE WORST STORM THE CITY HAS EVER KNOWN.
BUSINESS AND TRAVEL COMPLETELY SUSPENDED. NEW-YORK HELPLESS IN A TORNADO OF WIND AND SNOW WHICH PARALYZED ALL INDUSTRY, ISOLATED THE CITY FROM THE REST OF THE COUNTRY, CAUSED MANY ACCIDENTS AND GREAT DISCOMFORT
Atmospheric Science or meteorology was just a hobby until I showed up to grad school, then it got serious.
I could double-major in 4-years b/c I showed up w/my math and foreign language credits in the bag. Had to take 2 summer sessions to bang out some electives, but I spent almost all my time w/liberals arts focus believing I was headed to law school. But, got sidetracked ...
... took intro meteorology class from a popular professor at Michigan who co-founded the Weather Underground. And then started down the Atmospheric Science degree track. Yet, I spent the majority of my time, 20-years ago, studying history. Combining the two is so relaxing.
And, of course I studied Witchcraft my senior year of college. You can't be a good weather forecaster without it. 🪄🧙♀️
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@Mailchimp In the 1860s, Ponce De Leon Springs are popular attraction for Atlanta residents. Later in 1903, the site is turned into the "Coney Island of Atlanta" -- an amusement park.
@Mailchimp In 1907, the Ponce de Leon lake is drained to make way for a minor league baseball park, where the Atlanta Crackers play for decades, until moving to Atlanta Stadium in 1965.
There is a popular narrative being amplified by media outlets that recent extreme weather events are unpredictable, came out of no where, or were unexpected.
Actually, it's failed leadership to be ignorant of extreme weather & climate threats, and then use that as an excuse!
Former NYC Mayor Bloomberg was a disaster when it came to preparing for extreme weather especially blizzards.
This is in direct contrast to Mayor de Blasio who proactively got the plows running for his first major snowstorm in Jan 2014.
While we have a forecast track cone based upon historical errors (170 miles at 4 days) plopped on the map, there isn't a similar intensity uncertainty graphic that conveys information for intensity -- about 15 knots. Example would be 100-115 knots or Cat 3 or Cat 4.
Error trend:
The chart of average intensity errors shows last 30 years lumping all forecasts together. You could filter further by region, month, initial intensity, etc.
Intensity skill improvement has leveled off in past 10 years, or so.
I saw similar reporting that Gulf of Mexico sea-surface temperatures were ridiculously warm, 85°-90°F, and that's certainly true. But, the Gulf of Mexico on average is always that temperature in August (unless a previous hurricane mixes up cooler water from below).
The entire Gulf of Mexico ocean surface can support a major hurricane if it is given enough time over the ocean to intensify, and other wind shear, humidity factors are favorable. Obviously, the long history of Gulf hurricanes is a testament to what nature hath wrought.
Just overheard "eyeball replacement cycle" 🧐
The intensity has thankfully leveled off at 130-knots - top end Category 4. #HurricaneIda continues a recent trend of Gulf of Mexico storms that do not weaken approaching landfall instead blowing up to max intensity.
The Gulf of Mexico is always warm enough to develop a major hurricane in August, with warm eddies spinning and looping providing extra ocean heat content. But a major recent difference is top-to-bottom extreme warmth of shallower shelf waters along TX and LA coasts.
30°C+
There's the Gulf of Mexico "loop current" strategically located along the track of Hurricane Ida.
Random chance that Ida crossed it? Or some chicken and the egg here?