Takehiro Tomiyasu is a Gunner! Here's what you need to know about the 22-year-old fullback/center back hybrid. (1/x)
First of all, he doesn't only play RB. Tomiyasu joined Bologna starting in 2019. He's played both CB and RB since, although most of his transfer links have him as an RB. Last year he played each of the back 4 spots, and occasionally in a 3 atb, but settled in as RB by year-end.
I've seen my previous chart make the rounds today. Takehiro ranked a little lower than the likes of Emerson, Mbabu, etc., when I did my study because he was dragged down by his offensive numbers (lack thereof). I've wondered aloud whether it was because of the time split at CB...
Here's why you bring in a Tomiyasu. This is the same chart, isolating for defense and ball progression and dropping the stats for goal/shot contributions. Very secure defender who isn't dribbled past often, wins duels in the air. Good at pressing, secure in the tackle.
A little deeper dive on Tomiyasu's defensive stats. He tackled more than half the dribblers he took on, a 90th percentile performance. He was dribbled past 13 times in more than 2700 minutes last year. Bellerin: 29 times in <2,100, Cedric: 16 times in 746 minutes.
More on Tomiyasu: He won 56% of his duels last year. That's a huge jump from any of Arsenal's three. It also put him in the top handful of RBs I looked at. In the air: 58%, Chambers led the Arsenal options with 53%, but then...we just saw Cal's prowess in the air Saturday.
(By the way, Tomiyasu's 94 tackles + interceptions last year would have led Arsenal last season, although a couple of midfielders beat him in the per-90 stat. He had 82 the year before, so it's no fluke)
Here's what I'll want to learn about TT: What can he contribute to an attack? His numbers there are low, as illustrated above. But is that because he can't, or hasn't been asked to? Here's his heat map; as you can see he's not getting involved near his opponent's goal often.
(Here's Bellerin's, just so you can see the differences, particularly in the attacking third)
Tomiyasu completed just 10 passes into the penalty area all last year, about once every three games. Arsenal's three options each did that about once every 90 minutes. But he completed 4 passes into the final third/90, something none of Arsenal's RB did. That points more to role.
Look at Bologna's other fullbacks, and sure enough, none of them are completing penalty-area passes. Here's their leader in that stat at FB: Lorenzo de Silvestri. He completed one pass into the penalty area every ~75 minutes or so. Just short of Cedric.
Based on all the above I think you'll likely see Tomiyasu tuck into a back three while Tierney bombs up the left. Maybe even more action on the right coming from Ben White's CB spot or the midfield? It will be interesting to see how Tomiyasu is deployed.
Another stat I think backs this: Tomiyasu completed 52% of his long balls last season, successfully playing three per game. That's better than any of Arsenal's RBs. Bellerin, for example, was accurate 43% of the time, but he only played about two long balls every 180 minutes.
So, that's what I can tell you about the big Japanese international. From what little I've seen of him, he's a high-IQ player, agile, good with the ball at his feet. Add in stability and defensive reliability, and I think he's someone who could be of value to Arsenal's back line.

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More from @adamvoge

14 Sep
Recent reports put a striker and a midfielder at the top of Arsenal's to-do list as the club plots its return path to European football. With specifically a defensive-oriented midfielder rumoured to be the priority, here's my watchlist for the 21-22 season (1/x)...
Same disclaimer as always in mind, I set out to find midfielders who fit a few criteria:
-They're young. Pre-prime as a general definition, with 25 generally my upper boundary. Lower leagues had lower age limits.
-They're not promised or strongly linked to another huge club.
-They're effective at pressing, tackling, ground duels and show at least decent distribution. As always, a radar chart will capture what a player does/has done at a high level; it's not meant to indicate what a player absolutely cannot do.
Read 29 tweets
12 Sep
Through four weeks, your thread of relevant #Arsenal statistics (not including LFC, LUFC, Burnley and Everton)...
Expected Goal Differential:
City +8.9
Liverpool +4.7 (through 3)
Wolves +3.2
...
Spurs -2.5
Watford -2.7
🔴⚪️Arsenal -3.7
LCFC -4.4
NUFC -4.8
Norwich -5.3

Arsenal were -6.3 against City and CFC.
(Non-Penalty) Goals minus xG:
United +5.2
West Ham +3.7
Chelsea +3.3
Brighton +1.1
...
Soton -3.1
🔴⚪️Arsenal -4
Wolves -5.3
Read 11 tweets
10 Sep
Arsenal are facing change at striker, with their two main options on the wrong side of 30 and (pretty likely) leaving for free. Now's a great time to scan the market for replacement. So who should the club be watching? I'm tracking 50 strikers; here are some highlights (1/x)
First, a disclaimer: This analysis is built on the data available to me. I try to learn about these players and their clubs, but don't know everything. Also: just because they don't or haven't done something, doesn't mean they can't! The eye test is important, too.
What follows is built on a 17-point grading scale. I think one limitation is it may be somewhat punitive to one-trick ponies, and I'll try to point that out where it happens. I'll also come back to this thread a few times this season and give updates!
Read 26 tweets
28 Aug
Ruminating the last eight hours. There are multiple things wrong with the club, but at the end of the day what we see every weekend is lower than what the squad is capable of. There’s not a one-step solution, but I think it indicates a problem.
Fear of over-correction is real and valid. But stability for stability’s sake can also manifest as stagnation. It’s not hard to find multiple examples of the club being overly cautious and paying for it later.
I’d understand if Arteta were shown the door. I don’t expect it before Norwich. That’s an absolute must-win, and I’d peg about 13 points by Oct. 31 as my bar for the club. Everyone back, no excuses, show us what you can do. This is not a bottom-half squad. Now go play like it.
Read 4 tweets
26 Aug
The Arsenal RB situation...It's among the most mentioned issues with the starting XI, but the club have been linked to few solutions...so who should they sign?

I analysed 34 somewhat realistic options on a nine-metric scale. Here's who stood out to me... (1/x)
I'll start from the "bottom," as it were. Mert Muldur seems to be a favorite among ITKs and fans. My statistical profile is by no means comprehensive, but it doesn't love him. He ranked 32nd out of 34, with an average percentile rank of just 34. So he would not be my pick.
Another one you'll see occasionally is Bologna's Takehiro Tomiyasu. His mean percentile rank was 53rd, putting him 18th on my ranking. He's really anchored by some low attacking numbers, but his defensive numbers are solid. Seems like he'd be a secure option, great at aerials.
Read 15 tweets
31 Jul
Who is Lautaro Martinez? Here's a breakdown of his numbers at Inter, and how he compares to other notable strikers linked with the club this summer. (1/x)
Put it simply: The 23-year-old Argentine is good. Lautaro played a key role ending Juventus' reign this season and leading Inter to the Scudetto, with 17 G and 6 A for a club that also included Romelu Lukaku and his 35 G/A. He was key in their run to the UEL finals last year.
A couple of solid comps for Lautaro: Alvaro Morata and Gabriel Jesus. They all finished at around the same skill level last season, all put solid pressure on the ball, Lautaro lags a bit as a playmaker/creator.
Read 12 tweets

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