Thread by @btcfeen

The more and more I think about it, I think that this will be ethbtc’s last macro pump. Thread later…

first of all let's talk about how eth has had 3 major catalyst in the last 3 years but still sits at half of btc's market cap. It had ICO bubble, defi bubble and the NFT bubble. With all 3 eth had to be bought to buy these products...

I think eth will still run in the coming weeks, but it is on borrowed time imo. Once BTC starts breaking its old ath it will suck the liquidity out of ALL alts. Don't think this time is different. It isn't most likely

with that said, eth has until start of oct imo to make another run. This imo will be the highest ETHBTC will ever get to again. But why?

First of all, BTC is going to get an etf in the next year. That is going to bring a ton of pent up demand to BTC. Eth won’t be able to keep up with that unless it gets an etf itself. That is very unlikely given how Gary Gensler ( head of the SEC) views eth

He is actively trying out to get defi protocols and stablecoins. I don’t agree with this approach but we knew at some point the gov was going to go after this space. Well it’s here now. This wouldn’t be a problem is eth wasn’t centralized… well not so much

Eth’s centralization is very complex but I’ll hit on a few points. 1. Changing the protocol to make it “scarcer” does not mean it’s scarce. It can go the other way too. Eth has “rulers” making these changes 2. Staking makes the “richer richer”

It allows the biggest stakers (exchanges, lido, etc) to have more influence over decisions.This is basically the cantillon effect, which is no different than our current system. The pooled assets also makes a honeypot for regulators to go after.All those private keys in one spot

3. Eth has already had a centralized fiasco several times by forking Bc of hacks. The complex nature leads to more attack vectors

The gas fees are way to high to attract a huge user base. Right now only “rich” people can afford the fees to use defi or flip nfts.This leads me to my next point and why users are moving to other layer 1s like Solana and BSV.There will always be faster and better tech and chains

Some might argue that eth outperforms in bull markets. This is true so far but smaller layer 1s have outperformed eth. Why not invest in those instead of eth?

I think this is Bc Eth has certain casino like qualities. They have to this point been able to gamify the network to gamblers looking to increase their stack via “yield farming” “nft flipping” or “the next big thing” via crowdfunding

My question is how long can eth keep this going? When the ideas dry up who will be buying? The answer I suppose is people who are looking for defi and nfts 🤷‍♂️. These are all things that, believe it or not, are coming to BTC.

Yes BTC is slow to build, but it puts protocol uptime and safety at the base layer above anything else. The core devs and entrepreneurs for BTC know that if the base layer is broken it’s all broken.

Btc’s base layer is similar to Fed Wire. It will handle most of the bigger $ transactions while layer 2s will handle everything else and keep it cheap. @jack is building a decentralized exchange for BTC. He knows that decentralization is the biggest “invention” for cryptos.

If it’s not decentralized it’s just a database. There’s really no point to even have it on a blockchain. I admire vitalik’s original vision, but I think eth has strayed far away from that vision. Eth has way to many attack vectors now to be long term successful imo.

I truly believe that value will accrue on one chain mostly and that is Bc the network effects. Btc’s potential user base is the entire planet. I believe that most non privileged people understand btc’s true Beauty when they use it. Only privileged folks thing sending 200$ for a

Transaction is acceptable. BTC has already solved this problem and is fixing remittances problems NOW in places like Nigeria and El Salvador. These are real world solutions, not casino games

Now on to why POW and the 2 week difficulty adjustment is satoshi’s best invention and why POS won’t cut it. The 2 week difficulty adjustment ensures that miners cannot “front” run blocks. Why is this important? Bc btc’s emissions schedule is known, miners might to front run

The halvings. Knowing they will get “half” as much reward after the halving it would normally behoove them to pile in more miners. This would create an oversupply and make it difficult for the price to appreciate. Well since when hash increases the difficulty gets harder

Miners can’t do this. This also works similar the other way. When price dumps rapidly normally so will hash rate Bc it cost more to mine with the electricity costs than it does to buy on the open market. Luckily when hash decreases, so does difficulty

This also protects the network. It’s always incentivizing miners to secure the network. BTC miners are always incentivized to act on behalf of the Btc’s network’s best interest. There are aligned incentives for the users and the miners.

POS does not always have these aligned incentives. The big boys interest might not be the same as the users

All in all. I think people are going to figure out over time what the real invention is over time, and that is decentralization and POW. And for these reasons I don’t think we will see ethbtc get over the peak it hits in the next month or so

One last thing. Eth tried to take over btc’s store of value narrative, Bc it has worked so well for BTC. That’s why they are pushing the “hardest money” and triple halving narrative. But the problem is if they do push this and want high gas fees to push this burn,

Then their utility use case goes out the window and sol, Dot, ada, bsv or whatever takes over there Bc lower fees and faster speeds. But if they fully embrace the hard money narrative they can’t beat BTC, Bc eth is centralized

And subject to regularly headwinds or gov Seizure

Also before anyone calls me a hater… I dumped all my fiat from the 2017 bubble I sold into eth at the bottom. Haven’t sold yet. I believed in the ponzi then when few did. I just think eth is running out of narrative ammo soon

Just going to keep adding to this thread as I think of/remember more. A huge point I forgot to talk about is how BTC mining is becoming a vital part of energy infrastructure. BTC mining allows utilities to becoming max profitable. Every utility will be mining BTC

BTC will become “critical” infrastructure

Another reason why BTC is so much more important than eth is that govs worldwide are becoming much more totalitarian and rolling out social credit systems that will be tied to central bank digital currencies (cbdcs). They can control what you do and when you do it

With eth not being decentralized enough it allows the totalitarian regimes to continue. BTC is freedom!