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steve

@btcfeen

13 Sep

A little thread on why I think crypto continues to pump for the next 6 months or so…

Macro: the fed is in a crazy spot right now. With debt/gdp at 130% and and entitlements and defense spending at aths, they can’t let rates rise. This means they have to buy bonds. So they are financing the usg’s debt. They need to keep real yields under -5% or more

Until debt/gdp is below 80 percent so they can normalize policy. If they don’t the debt/gdp gets worse as debt has been added at a 9% CAGR since 2008. So they have to print, all while fooling the bond market into think inflation ISN’T transitory. If the bond market gets spooked,

Read 19 tweets

steve

@btcfeen

1 Sep

The more and more I think about it, I think that this will be ethbtc’s last macro pump. Thread later…

first of all let's talk about how eth has had 3 major catalyst in the last 3 years but still sits at half of btc's market cap. It had ICO bubble, defi bubble and the NFT bubble. With all 3 eth had to be bought to buy these products...

I think eth will still run in the coming weeks, but it is on borrowed time imo. Once BTC starts breaking its old ath it will suck the liquidity out of ALL alts. Don't think this time is different. It isn't most likely

Read 32 tweets

steve

@btcfeen

10 Jul

A little thread on buyers vs sellers.

Sellers: right now there shouldn’t really be any forced sellers (liquidations) left. Oi really hasn’t increased in this range if anything funding has been negative in this range so likely shorts that would be forced buyers if we break up

Short term holders are almost completely gone. We can see this is the data as this low 3k range has had the highest amount of realized losses for short term entities in history.

Read 14 tweets

steve

@btcfeen

20 Aug 20

A little thread on the defi stuff and yield farming. I do think there is a short term opportunity to make money but you really have to know your stuff. If you don't you will get burned fast. Part of the problem is it moves so fast it is hard to get caught up unless you have time

Basically the concept (as most of you know) is to send eth to these platforms where you can lend out or get a loan based upon using your eth (or in some cases other coinsas collateral. You get a small amount for holding eth there plus you get a token payout for using the platform

The token is worth what the market says it is worth. I think the inherent long term value is zero but for the short term it is worth what the market says it is worth. This is why let's say Comp, might be paying out 100% APY. BC the token is worth a decent amount atm.

Read 8 tweets

steve

@btcfeen

13 Apr 20

Thread on why I think btc behaves the way it does especially around halvings

Read 5 tweets

steve

@btcfeen

24 Jan 19

I was looking at some weekly and monthly candles using Heiken Ashi (the drunken master). After a series of red candles buying the doji on the monthly has worked out very well. x's are halving. arrows are dojis tradingview.com/x/yEsTieva/ tradingview.com/x/NvIWIMp4/

another thing. Old tops doesn't necessarily mean old bottoms. a lot of times we didn't even reach the old top.

so keep an eye out for the monthly doji.

Read 4 tweets

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