steve Profile picture
13 Sep, 19 tweets, 4 min read
A little thread on why I think crypto continues to pump for the next 6 months or so…
Macro: the fed is in a crazy spot right now. With debt/gdp at 130% and and entitlements and defense spending at aths, they can’t let rates rise. This means they have to buy bonds. So they are financing the usg’s debt. They need to keep real yields under -5% or more
Until debt/gdp is below 80 percent so they can normalize policy. If they don’t the debt/gdp gets worse as debt has been added at a 9% CAGR since 2008. So they have to print, all while fooling the bond market into think inflation ISN’T transitory. If the bond market gets spooked,
Then the fed has to buy even MORE bonds to keep rates from rising. See why it’s such a touchy situation? They are literally walking a tightrope above Niagara Falls with a blindfold. One false step and it’s over.
One more thing to note is they can’t stop injecting liquidity to the market Bc if they do stocks will falls and so will tax receipts. Gdp falls even more
Margin: margin is still very low right now. Premium is running negative all while funding is neutral. Markets haven’t topped like this. Generally those stats mean a bottom is way closer than a top
Hidden margin in the way of taxes will need to be paid by oct 15. We are clear for takeoff after that
Fundamentals: balance on exchanges is as low as ever. A supply squeeze will happen and price will have to go higher to unlock more supply. The only reason for this recent drop was derivatives getting a bit overheated
Ta: while this still could technically be a complacency leg, I do not think it is. For the reasons above and below
I think 2013 analog makes more sense than 2017. Big pump, big dump, big pump. 6 months or so in between
pretty damn close
as long as we stay closing weeklies above the 50 wma i have no worries. price always bounces on the first test. a close below on the 2nd time testing is no good
this is the 20wma. it should confirm as support soon for confirmation that we are still bull.
s/r flip.
3d chart. a lot going on here. last year bottomed on fall equinox and went on a tear. pumped in late july while premium went high, dumped early sept into the 50 ma. stoch reset. premium turning negative again just like last year after the dump
this is what happens if i copy the bars from that dump last sept to spring equinox. seems realistic. I have said we will hit 200k + for a while. now it is go time!
for my final closing remarks... fuck the bears. why short the best performing asset of all time? HFSP.

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More from @btcfeen

12 Sep
Similar look. Also exact same time of year ImageImage
One more stab at the lows now and rally
3d 50 ma served as support. premium has flipped negative again. more confluence with last sept. Image
Read 6 tweets
1 Sep
The more and more I think about it, I think that this will be ethbtc’s last macro pump. Thread later…
first of all let's talk about how eth has had 3 major catalyst in the last 3 years but still sits at half of btc's market cap. It had ICO bubble, defi bubble and the NFT bubble. With all 3 eth had to be bought to buy these products...
I think eth will still run in the coming weeks, but it is on borrowed time imo. Once BTC starts breaking its old ath it will suck the liquidity out of ALL alts. Don't think this time is different. It isn't most likely
Read 32 tweets
10 Jul
A little thread on buyers vs sellers.
Sellers: right now there shouldn’t really be any forced sellers (liquidations) left. Oi really hasn’t increased in this range if anything funding has been negative in this range so likely shorts that would be forced buyers if we break up
Short term holders are almost completely gone. We can see this is the data as this low 3k range has had the highest amount of realized losses for short term entities in history.
Read 14 tweets
20 Aug 20
A little thread on the defi stuff and yield farming. I do think there is a short term opportunity to make money but you really have to know your stuff. If you don't you will get burned fast. Part of the problem is it moves so fast it is hard to get caught up unless you have time
Basically the concept (as most of you know) is to send eth to these platforms where you can lend out or get a loan based upon using your eth (or in some cases other coinsas collateral. You get a small amount for holding eth there plus you get a token payout for using the platform
The token is worth what the market says it is worth. I think the inherent long term value is zero but for the short term it is worth what the market says it is worth. This is why let's say Comp, might be paying out 100% APY. BC the token is worth a decent amount atm.
Read 8 tweets
13 Apr 20
Thread on why I think btc behaves the way it does especially around halvings
Read 5 tweets
24 Jan 19
I was looking at some weekly and monthly candles using Heiken Ashi (the drunken master). After a series of red candles buying the doji on the monthly has worked out very well. x's are halving. arrows are dojis
another thing. Old tops doesn't necessarily mean old bottoms. a lot of times we didn't even reach the old top.
so keep an eye out for the monthly doji.
Read 4 tweets

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