Thread by @AlanBixter

Where are we? - A thread.
A pandemic can be modelled very simply by a modified hunter-prey chaotic system. Lions and rabbits. Rabbits eat grass and multiply if there are few lions, but the more rabbits there are, the more lions can eat them and multiply. /2

Until there are so few rabbits that the lions start to starve and die out, allowing the rabbits to multiply. This system illustrates some remarkable dynamics, with two apparently relative stable positions (very few rabbits or very few lions), /3

and an apparently wildly dynamic state in between with wildly see-sawing numbers of both rabbits and lions in between. The most extraordinary feature of this system is that the outcome of running a scenario depends on the starting values: /4

The **precise** numbers of lions and rabbits and the relationship between them. Despite the model appearing wildly random, the outcome is predetermined, and can be predicted. In a pandemic, we are the rabbits. /5

The difference is that in the middle of running a scenario, we can change the rules. Not every COVIDiot needs to behave selfishly, and not every Premier will always do the right thing at the right time. /6

So where are we now? For a few months, case numbers have been low, and small outbreaks stabilised relatively quickly. We were near the stable "strange attractor" of little virus and few cases; we were far from the other attractor, of unrestrained spread. We were complacent. /7

This state is that it "feels" safe, but it isn't. There are many paths between it and the opposite attractor. And we found one. The oscillating case numbers between low numbers and exponential growth are typical of this transition and occurred a few months ago in NSW too. /8

This kind of modelling doesn't "predict" the future. But it does provide a better feel for where we are in a topology of futures: If we do nothing different, the future is bleak. /9

We have already stepped off a cliff, but this cliff has no floor until every family is touched by tragedy. If we "open up" as @TheAge so stupidly demanded in their demented rant today, we hasten calamity, and by pushing closer to the attractor, make the path back much harder. /10

On the other hand, we can take steps that push back towards the zone of instability between the two attractors. We can take find a hand hold in the cliff, halt our fall, find our feet and take steps to walk back the damage already done. /11

The way to do that, is to hide rabbits. Just as the lions need rabbits to multiply, COVID needs people to multiply. If people minimise physical interactions with other people, and wear clinically tested & certified face masks, they minimise viral spread. /12

The sad thing is, that most of the next week's case numbers are already infected. We can't change the past, and in this case, we can't much change the immediate future either. We stepped off that cliff, and it is going to hurt. But we can change how much it hurts. /13

What do we need to change about our public health orders? Not really anything - they are probably fine. But we do need to change two things: compliance and enforcement. We have got complacent. We thought we could evade the rules & could get away with it. We couldn't. /14

What felt like skirting the rules was a steady march towards the cliff face. Put all the ingenuity you used to break the rules into making them more successful. Wear a face mask. Not that baggy misshapen crap you dangle off your chin to avoid a fine. Get certified masks. /15

GET THE BEST BLOODY MASKS YOU CAN AFFORD. AND WEAR THEM. ON YOUR FACE. OVER YOUR MOUTH AND NOSE. As if the lives of your family depends on it. Because they do. And if you don't, they will know you don't give a shit about them. /16

Put all the ingenuity you used to break the rules into making them more successful. STAY THE FUCK AT HOME. Yes, you need exercise; yes you need to see daylight; yes you need food, supplies and health care. Do those things and THEN GO HOME. /17

Doing things is not an excuse not to wear a mask. If you are having walk, wear a mask. If you are riding an electric bicycle, wear a mask. If you are buying food, wear a mask. Do these things and THEN GO HOME. /18

And enforcement? That feeling that you were getting away with it was reinforced by there not being consequences for your actions at the time. But the consequences stacked up and now you are paying for them. The delay hid the cause-effect relationship. /19

Authorised officers and police need to reinforce the association of cause and effect. They know best how to encourage compliance, by acting as an example, supporting good behaviours and calling out bad. /20

It is a job of tact and diplomacy and steely determination. Got an exemption to not wear a mask? Best to stay home then, because unless we get this under control, you will be at greatest risk of COVID - and as one of the most vulnerable, you need to be protected. At home. /21

We can do your shopping for you. Or would you like to try one of these masks? They are certified. /22

At the end of the day, there is no other way to do this. We can do it now, before the inexorable force of gravity accelerates out fall, or we can wait and hope that the families we tear apart are not our families. The health destroyed, is not our health. /23

But the one thing that I can promise you, is that if we don't take a hand hold and stop this fall now, we will hit the bottom of the cliff sooner or later, at the point that every family is touched by tragedy. And you will still have to wear a bloody mask then. <end>