@Peter_Fitz The Vic second wave was almost completely created by outbreaks in federally regulated aged care. The state didn't know, because the cases and deaths were reported to Colbeck, who didn't pass the data on to the state. The coroner alerted the govt to the issue./2
@Peter_Fitz Even once the data were formally requested, it took 3 months to reconcile Colbeck's data against the coroners records. The situation got so bad that the state set up SWAT medical teams to raid aged care facilities, quarantine the staff and transfer the residents to hospitals. /3
@Peter_Fitz Many of the residents were in a terrible state unfed or watered for nearly 24 hours, maggots in bed sores, lying in their own excrement. Many of the swat team members are still being treated for PTSD. And then Morrison called it the "Victorian outbreak". /4
@Peter_Fitz Morrison, "Doc" Hunt and Frydenberg DAILY coordinated a disinformation campaign with #NewsCorpse and the Vic Liberal Party attacking Victorians, our government, and our health response for the outbreak that they fed, hid and regulated as a political PR hit. It ran for 3 months./5
@Peter_Fitz And killed 665 people. You might remember that number as 768. That's because even by the time the outbreak was over, Colbeck STILL hadn't released the full details of the people who died in his care. If you like I can tell you about his failure to vaccinate them this year.
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COVID Mortalities, Shades of Truth, and Under the Spin (Thread).
We know the raw case mortality rate of COVID in Australia: 1,039 deaths from 61,609 cases = 1.69%.
If we take all COVID deaths to the beginning of June '21, we get 910 deaths from 30,118 cases = 3.03%. /2
It looks like we got better at looking after COVID, right. But we can go further: Vic 2nd wave (804/2,0393=3.94%) vs NSW current wave (126/28,321= 0.44%). Wow - that must mean Labor is shit and Liberals are brilliant. Or vaccines are magic. /3
The problem with all of those raw mortality calculations, except the one embedded entirely in 2020, is that they assume that that a person who dies of COVID immediately they are informed of the diagnosis. Which is obviously a stupid assumption. /4
Where are we? - A thread.
A pandemic can be modelled very simply by a modified hunter-prey chaotic system. Lions and rabbits. Rabbits eat grass and multiply if there are few lions, but the more rabbits there are, the more lions can eat them and multiply. /2
Until there are so few rabbits that the lions start to starve and die out, allowing the rabbits to multiply. This system illustrates some remarkable dynamics, with two apparently relative stable positions (very few rabbits or very few lions), /3
and an apparently wildly dynamic state in between with wildly see-sawing numbers of both rabbits and lions in between. The most extraordinary feature of this system is that the outcome of running a scenario depends on the starting values: /4
The COVID setting used in Victoria were devised and periodically revised by scientists. How can we tell? Because each strategy was left in place for long enough for it to be possible to determine if it had significantly improved case numbers. /2
This allowed them to systematically move towards a series of interventions that were effective. The effects of these strategies could be seen by the inflection points in a plot of daily case numbers, generally ~a week after implementation. Much of this work is now published. /3
There is no such precision in changes to NSW case numbers. Settings are changed almost daily, so that although the rate of increase in daily case numbers has changed over time, this has not happened in a way that particular settings can be attributed to any outcome. /4
Here, I would like to propose a #CovidCommission - a multidisciplinary committee to devise and contract the work needed. /2
A significant step forward, would be to develop a preliminary list of perhaps 10 of the sorts of advances that could be commissioned, to determine the sorts of skills needed for a #CovidCommission, and the nature of support that work would need. /3
At this point, what I am seeking is proposed advances in public health, engineering, architecture, humanities, arts - any area of human endeavour that can make living in a world with COVID, not just safe but, a better world. #CovidCommission /4
Prahran Market has just been made aware by the DHHS that a confirmed COVID-positive shopper visited the market on Saturday the 17th of July between 9.40 am and 11.15 am. /2
DHHS advises that the customer visited a number of traders including Pete n Rosie’s Deli, Q le Baker, Prahran Seafoods, John Cester’s Poultry and Game, Gary’s Quality Meats, Reliable Fruit and Veg and Market Lane Coffee. /3
Due to the broad geographic spread of the traders, DHHS has taken the step of classifying the whole of Prahran Market a Tier 1 exposure site. /4
From Saturday Paper (link in thread): Before Sydney’s outbreak of the Delta variant, NSW Health approached Qantas and offered to provide vaccinations for all its staff.
This offer was made not just for those flying internationally or directly connected to border and quarantine operations, but accountants, commercial teams, loyalty program managers and communications staff.
Every back-office employee could be vaccinated, even if aged under 40 – a cohort not yet eligible under national guidelines.