New blog: to stop the comic-horror sequel of a Trump candidacy, we need a project to identify a GOP candidate + give them a plan/tools over the next 12 months so they're building & ready BEFORE the midterms launch the next Presidential cycle in 15 months dominiccummings.substack.com/p/regime-chang…
Even if you wanted Trump to beat Biden you shd support this because Trump showed neither the interest in nor skills to control the government, so another Trump term just means pointless twitter bitching at the media (while actually sending them power & $$) while blundering around
The crucial political/psychological obstacle for Republicans to overcome viz governing is to shift from 'reforming' DC institutions to *start closing them in Inaugural speech 1/25 & replace with startups*. This is the only way for *the government to control the government*
Over the next 12 months, build best predictive model of electorate (as we did in UK 2018-19) + massive research program in crucial states + plan for Gvt + talent identification etc - & find/recruit the best candidate to stop Trump/beat Biden...
NB. The hard thing will NOT be beating Biden - the hard thing will be taking a startup from 0 to 1 & getting momentum with semi-deranged GOP fearful of Trump. If this is cracked, beating Biden will be relatively easy
The most important part of US Government to close & replace? THE PENTAGON. If you want to understand how modern bureaucracies work, cancel your subscriptions to newspapers & instead read this by Col Boyd ally amazon.co.uk/Pentagon-Wars-…
Why is the Valley arguably the place for the startup to beat Trump/Biden & fix DC? It's the world capital of *startups & scaling* which are needed BOTH for the movement to beat Trump/Biden AND to reboot DC from the Inaugural Speech Jan 2025: closing + startups, NOT 'reform'
But arguably Florida wd be better - big effort by local authorities to attract Valley talent plus Florida is a crucial state so the startup would be 'living in the village', per Col Boyd, unlike in SV...
Just as FDR warned Congress in his Inaugural - my way or the highway - the Jan 2025 speech should announce: today I'm closing ABC as I said in the campaign, introducing legislation, & creating the following startups, starting with the Pentagon... dominiccummings.substack.com/p/regime-chang…
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Discussion over security minister classic example of media believing & telling you fairy stories. Overwhelming % of this job is done by officials. *The system* runs 'security'. The minister cd not exist/sensible/clown: largely irrelevant to policy/operations
NB Im not saying this is good, just explaining fact that over 15 yrs the Cabinet Office & other elements have taken huge powers from ministers & this junior minister role has something like 1000 or 10,000 times less power than the Cabinet Secretary on 'security'
Theres literally hundreds of officials whose names never appear in the papers who wield more power over security than this junior ministerial role, but the media & MPs will talk about the ghost of power rather than actual power
Good example of how elite Remain are like Japanese soldiers still fighting 1950... And using weapons that blow themselves up... If these idiot-elites continue to dominate environmental debates they'll turn everybody into SUV driving coalminers stat
Something the London world of media, lawyers, Remain activists, ER etc still don't grasp: despite being Trump, Trump still nearly won partly cos of the extremely common & deeply felt HATE, far beyond Trump supporters, for the way mainstream media covers politics
This network is making climate their new thing - they will screw that up as badly as they handled Brexit, Trump, terrorism, crime etc. If you want serious action on the environment, it's VITAL these deluded Left networks don't dominate or they'll provoke massive counter-campaign
Remember the 🛒's words in No10 July when suggested that gvt comms machine push back vs tide of disinformation from e.g Telegraph & the hack known in SW1 as 'Bonkers'. "Nooooooo, the trouble is Dom my heart is with Bonkers!' Hence, autumn disaster, >50k more dead, econ tanked
Why has Bonkers-ism spread so widely? Partly cos ERG and Cadwalladr types have both *encouraged* seeing covid policy as *political identity*. This is deeply irrational but reinforced by newspapers with collapsing business models & the most extreme activists...
If you're rational you don't tie your judgements of covid science/policy to Brexit/Remain or LAB/CON identity. But if you look around SW1 you see vast swathes of MPs/pundits actively embracing this stupidity & others reinforcing it for clicks/£: e.g Cadwalladr/Farage/Campbell/ERG
One way you can tell Starmer's team are rubbish at politics is they keep giving their broadcast people 'liar' soundbites. It's pointless. Public *know* PM's a liar. If Blair were in charge he'd say something *voters care about*. This most basic principle is beyond Starmer's mob
DEMs made exactly the same error viz Trump, focusing on character. Many of their attacks INCREASED support for him. But it pleased media/activists so they did it. Politicians usually do not optimise for *relentless focus on voters* (winning) but *media/in-group*
If you're an MP quietly thinking about the next leadership contests (CON or LAB), check out my blog on Lee Kuan Yew & Singapore. Ideas galore for you to steal & more important an overall *method* that wd put you in the history books: dominiccummings.substack.com/p/high-perform…
A lot of Westminster seems happy that *hire people to do urgent job X INSTANTLY in a pandemic x2 each 2-3 days* was borderline illegal 3/20 & very keen we keep the system/approach that killed >100k unnecessarily so next time there's a deadly crisis we kill even more
If we'd listened to this conventional wisdom spring 2020, we'd have done the conventional vaccine procurement instead of ripping it up & saying we'll ignore all normal rules/EU laws & *we don't care* if a court later says 'that was unlawful'
In the legal shitshow of spring 2020 we cd prioritise either A) 'don't lose a JR in a year' or B) 'solve problems killing 10000s'. Vote Leave chose B. Jolyon's legal cases are reinforcing the SW1 power structure & conventional wisdom back to A...
When I saw shocking lack of data @ DHSC/CABOFF *I acted immediately* to get data for SAGE et al as covid x2 each 2-3 days. This improved policy + saved lives. A vaguely rational polity wd learn from this. Instead SW1 incentives = pay lawyers to confuse the media/MPs #InquiryNow
Why Hanbury? Just weeks ago they’d worked with me on GE. Unlike normal polling companies I *knew* they cd connect *instantly* to new No10 data science team & cloud *with zero mtngs*. INSTANTLY, without mtngs/debate, was what we needed as covid spread in 3/20
Taxpayers *gained* from a/ instant action (better policy, fewer deaths), b/ free riding on work paid for by others to develop a cloud system for polling data *instead of having to procure/build from scratch/train people when we had no time* etc