Thread by @Dr_D_Robertson

SPI-M statement on return to schools - 11 August 2021, published 27 August 2021

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assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

"Schools will represent a high proportion of remaining susceptible individuals and it is highly
likely that exponential increases will be seen in school-attending age groups after schools
open. ...

"Vaccination will also have made almost no difference in these population groups over the summer holidays.

"When schools reopen, the mitigations in place to limit transmission within schools will be much reduced compared to the spring and summer
terms. Additionally, the prevalence of infection in the community and school-age groups will be higher than in May 2021

"This analysis shows that within-school transmission could be reduced through more
participation in twice weekly mass testing. Even without these mitigations, the more pupils
and teachers that contract COVID-19, the more missed schooling there will be, as well as

"the subsequent consequences for parents and carers, and the wider workforce implications.

While this analysis focuses on within-school transmission, schools are also inevitably linked to any community epidemic.

"Within SPI-M-O, there is no consensus whether
schools are major or effective drivers of community transmission or merely good indicators
of it.

It is highly likely that high prevalence will be seen within schools by the end of September 2021.

"This may reflect either community or within-school transmission, and the role of schools in driving wider transmission remains uncertain.

**Regardless of this, it would be sensible for government to plan for this eventuality.**