"Schools will represent a high proportion of remaining susceptible individuals and it is highly
likely that exponential increases will be seen in school-attending age groups after schools
open. ...
"Vaccination will also have made almost no difference in these population groups over the summer holidays.
"When schools reopen, the mitigations in place to limit transmission within schools will be much reduced compared to the spring and summer
terms. Additionally, the prevalence of infection in the community and school-age groups will be higher than in May 2021
"This analysis shows that within-school transmission could be reduced through more
participation in twice weekly mass testing. Even without these mitigations, the more pupils
and teachers that contract COVID-19, the more missed schooling there will be, as well as
"the subsequent consequences for parents and carers, and the wider workforce implications.
While this analysis focuses on within-school transmission, schools are also inevitably linked to any community epidemic.
"Within SPI-M-O, there is no consensus whether
schools are major or effective drivers of community transmission or merely good indicators
of it.
It is highly likely that high prevalence will be seen within schools by the end of September 2021.
"This may reflect either community or within-school transmission, and the role of schools in driving wider transmission remains uncertain.
**Regardless of this, it would be sensible for government to plan for this eventuality.**
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
"The UK is currently experiencing high prevalence and likely entering a period of growth as a result of changes in behaviour.
"It is also a time of significant uncertainty given the scope for increased transmission after the end of the school holidays, the possibility for further evidence to emerge on the duration of immunity against COVID-19, and several policy areas likely to become clearer.
First of all, it is good to see that there *is* a plan, particularly after the removal of restrictions after Step 4 of the Government's earlier Roadmap.
"...the modelling is currently under review by SPI-M. A significant future wave could occur in this period as a result of waning of vaccine effectiveness, as well as if there is a vaccine-escape dominant variant." gov.uk/government/pub…
"To demonstrate this risk, we have therefore created an alternative scenario by shifting the highest peak in the Warwick scenarios to 2 months later, hence a peak of about 170,000 infections per day falls into the period where a vaccine would have most impact. ...
"It is important to note that there are plausible scenarios even worse than the contingency scenario presented here."
This is the most important slide. Vaccines work *very very well* at preventing death.
Vaccines work well at preventing hospitalization. They are not perfect but they significantly reduce the chance of being hospitalized.
Vaccines work at preventing infection.
"This is likely to be due to a variety of reasons, including differences in the population of vaccinated and unvaccinated people as well as differences in testing patterns"