This is the most important slide. Vaccines work *very very well* at preventing death.
Vaccines work well at preventing hospitalization. They are not perfect but they significantly reduce the chance of being hospitalized.
Vaccines work at preventing infection.
"This is likely to be due to a variety of reasons, including differences in the population of vaccinated and unvaccinated people as well as differences in testing patterns"
The small print - which is vital in intrepreting the numbers
"The rate of death within 28 days or within 60 days of a positive COVID-19 test increases with age, and is substantially greater in unvaccinated individuals compared to fully vaccinated individuals.
"The rate of hospitalisation within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test also increases with age, and again is substantially greater in unvaccinated individuals compared to vaccinated individuals.
"The rate of a positive COVID-19 test varies by age and vaccination status. The rate of a positive COVID-19 test is substantially lower in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated individuals up to the age of 39, and in those aged greater than 80. ...
" In individuals aged 40 to 79, the rate of a positive COVID-19 test is higher in vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated. ...
"This is likely to be due to a variety of reasons, including differences in the population of vaccinated and unvaccinated people as well as differences in testing patterns
** "The vaccination status of cases, inpatients and
deaths is not the most appropriate method to assess vaccine effectiveness and there is a high risk of misinterpretation.** ...
*** "Vaccine effectiveness has been formally estimated from a number of different sources and is described earlier in this report." ***
"In the context of very high vaccine coverage in the population, even with a highly
effective vaccine, it is expected that a large proportion of cases, hospitalisations and
deaths would occur in vaccinated individuals, simply because a larger proportion of the ...
"population are vaccinated than unvaccinated and no vaccine is 100% effective. This is
especially true because vaccination has been prioritised in individuals who are more
susceptible or more at risk of severe disease. Individuals in risk groups may also be
more at risk ...
"of hospitalisation or death due to non-COVID-19 causes, and thus may be
hospitalised or die with COVID-19 rather than because of COVID-19.
"The UK is currently experiencing high prevalence and likely entering a period of growth as a result of changes in behaviour.
"It is also a time of significant uncertainty given the scope for increased transmission after the end of the school holidays, the possibility for further evidence to emerge on the duration of immunity against COVID-19, and several policy areas likely to become clearer.
First of all, it is good to see that there *is* a plan, particularly after the removal of restrictions after Step 4 of the Government's earlier Roadmap.
"...the modelling is currently under review by SPI-M. A significant future wave could occur in this period as a result of waning of vaccine effectiveness, as well as if there is a vaccine-escape dominant variant." gov.uk/government/pub…
"To demonstrate this risk, we have therefore created an alternative scenario by shifting the highest peak in the Warwick scenarios to 2 months later, hence a peak of about 170,000 infections per day falls into the period where a vaccine would have most impact. ...
"It is important to note that there are plausible scenarios even worse than the contingency scenario presented here."
"Schools will represent a high proportion of remaining susceptible individuals and it is highly
likely that exponential increases will be seen in school-attending age groups after schools
open. ...
"Vaccination will also have made almost no difference in these population groups over the summer holidays.