"The UK is currently experiencing high prevalence and likely entering a period of growth as a result of changes in behaviour.
"It is also a time of significant uncertainty given the scope for increased transmission after the end of the school holidays, the possibility for further evidence to emerge on the duration of immunity against COVID-19, and several policy areas likely to become clearer.
First of all, it is good to see that there *is* a plan, particularly after the removal of restrictions after Step 4 of the Government's earlier Roadmap.
"...the modelling is currently under review by SPI-M. A significant future wave could occur in this period as a result of waning of vaccine effectiveness, as well as if there is a vaccine-escape dominant variant." gov.uk/government/pub…
"To demonstrate this risk, we have therefore created an alternative scenario by shifting the highest peak in the Warwick scenarios to 2 months later, hence a peak of about 170,000 infections per day falls into the period where a vaccine would have most impact. ...
"It is important to note that there are plausible scenarios even worse than the contingency scenario presented here."
This is the most important slide. Vaccines work *very very well* at preventing death.
Vaccines work well at preventing hospitalization. They are not perfect but they significantly reduce the chance of being hospitalized.
Vaccines work at preventing infection.
"This is likely to be due to a variety of reasons, including differences in the population of vaccinated and unvaccinated people as well as differences in testing patterns"
"Schools will represent a high proportion of remaining susceptible individuals and it is highly
likely that exponential increases will be seen in school-attending age groups after schools
open. ...
"Vaccination will also have made almost no difference in these population groups over the summer holidays.