While we're looking at children's vaccinations, let's not lose sight of the *million* over-60s that are still not fully vaccinated.

*These* are at the highest risk of being hospitalized or sadly dying

They are very vulnerable if Covid is allowed to spread through the community. Image
Data from PHE surveillance report week 35

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

14 Sep
Review of the SPI-M (modelling) paper released today

A thread 🧵
gov.uk/government/pub…
"The UK is currently experiencing high prevalence and likely entering a period of growth as a result of changes in behaviour.
"It is also a time of significant uncertainty given the scope for increased transmission after the end of the school holidays, the possibility for further evidence to emerge on the duration of immunity against COVID-19, and several policy areas likely to become clearer.
Read 29 tweets
14 Sep
Commentary on the Government's Covid autumn and winter plan 2021

A thread🧵
To put this in perspective, here is a history of the Government's planning on Covid.

First of all, it is good to see that there *is* a plan, particularly after the removal of restrictions after Step 4 of the Government's earlier Roadmap.
Read 22 tweets
13 Sep
"...the modelling is currently under review by SPI-M. A significant future wave could occur in this period as a result of waning of vaccine effectiveness, as well as if there is a vaccine-escape dominant variant."
gov.uk/government/pub…
"To demonstrate this risk, we have therefore created an alternative scenario by shifting the highest peak in the Warwick scenarios to 2 months later, hence a peak of about 170,000 infections per day falls into the period where a vaccine would have most impact. ...
"It is important to note that there are plausible scenarios even worse than the contingency scenario presented here."
Read 4 tweets
9 Sep
On the PHE data by vaccinated/unvaccinated.

This is the most important slide. Vaccines work *very very well* at preventing death.
Vaccines work well at preventing hospitalization. They are not perfect but they significantly reduce the chance of being hospitalized.
Vaccines work at preventing infection.

"This is likely to be due to a variety of reasons, including differences in the population of vaccinated and unvaccinated people as well as differences in testing patterns"
Read 17 tweets
2 Sep
On 23 June, the Vaccines Minister highlighted the low levels of vaccine takeup among communities

A very short thread showing the disproportionate risks between different communities.
🧵
gov.uk/government/spe…
In the 23 June data (when the Minister made the comments), 59% of black over-50s had been given their second dose, compared to 91% of white over-50s.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
There has been *some* progress, but not nearly enough.

In today's data, 66% of black over-50s have had their second dose, compared to 93% of white over-50s.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Read 5 tweets
2 Sep
SPI-M statement on return to schools - 11 August 2021, published 27 August 2021

🧵
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
"Schools will represent a high proportion of remaining susceptible individuals and it is highly
likely that exponential increases will be seen in school-attending age groups after schools
open. ...
"Vaccination will also have made almost no difference in these population groups over the summer holidays.
Read 8 tweets

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