"...the modelling is currently under review by SPI-M. A significant future wave could occur in this period as a result of waning of vaccine effectiveness, as well as if there is a vaccine-escape dominant variant."
"To demonstrate this risk, we have therefore created an alternative scenario by shifting the highest peak in the Warwick scenarios to 2 months later, hence a peak of about 170,000 infections per day falls into the period where a vaccine would have most impact. ...
"It is important to note that there are plausible scenarios even worse than the contingency scenario presented here."
Scenarios for total infections from 18 October 2021 to 31 March 2022...

1,000,000 infections
2,200,000 infections
150,000 infections
Contingency scenario: waning vaccination immunity &/or new dominant vaccine escape variant:

6,900,000 infections

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Dr Duncan Robertson

Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Dr_D_Robertson

14 Sep
Review of the SPI-M (modelling) paper released today

A thread 🧵
"The UK is currently experiencing high prevalence and likely entering a period of growth as a result of changes in behaviour.
"It is also a time of significant uncertainty given the scope for increased transmission after the end of the school holidays, the possibility for further evidence to emerge on the duration of immunity against COVID-19, and several policy areas likely to become clearer.
Read 29 tweets
14 Sep
Commentary on the Government's Covid autumn and winter plan 2021

A thread🧵
To put this in perspective, here is a history of the Government's planning on Covid.

First of all, it is good to see that there *is* a plan, particularly after the removal of restrictions after Step 4 of the Government's earlier Roadmap.
Read 22 tweets
9 Sep
On the PHE data by vaccinated/unvaccinated.

This is the most important slide. Vaccines work *very very well* at preventing death.
Vaccines work well at preventing hospitalization. They are not perfect but they significantly reduce the chance of being hospitalized.
Vaccines work at preventing infection.

"This is likely to be due to a variety of reasons, including differences in the population of vaccinated and unvaccinated people as well as differences in testing patterns"
Read 17 tweets
4 Sep
While we're looking at children's vaccinations, let's not lose sight of the *million* over-60s that are still not fully vaccinated.

*These* are at the highest risk of being hospitalized or sadly dying

They are very vulnerable if Covid is allowed to spread through the community. Image
Data from PHE surveillance report week 35
Read 4 tweets
2 Sep
On 23 June, the Vaccines Minister highlighted the low levels of vaccine takeup among communities

A very short thread showing the disproportionate risks between different communities.
In the 23 June data (when the Minister made the comments), 59% of black over-50s had been given their second dose, compared to 91% of white over-50s.

There has been *some* progress, but not nearly enough.

In today's data, 66% of black over-50s have had their second dose, compared to 93% of white over-50s.

Read 5 tweets
2 Sep
SPI-M statement on return to schools - 11 August 2021, published 27 August 2021

"Schools will represent a high proportion of remaining susceptible individuals and it is highly
likely that exponential increases will be seen in school-attending age groups after schools
open. ...
"Vaccination will also have made almost no difference in these population groups over the summer holidays.
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!