#MarsiliosTA

The pivot is the basic bull/bear dividing line, so trend indicator

Most pivot systems include support & resistance levels, so these are potential turn indicators

There are various formulas:

R1 = P*2 - L(ow)
S1 = P*2 - H(igh)
R2 = P + (R1 - S1)
S2 = P - (R1 - S1)
But don't worry about the math because all we need to do is turn them on in tradingview or whatever you are using

So here is DJI with yearly levels only, P & S & R

2020 panic covid low, smart $ bought YS3

Recently YR1 saw minor selling a few times, then turned into support
SPX
2020 covid low on YS2

Similar "resistance into support" idea on YR1 later in 2020 and again this year
NDX

2020 covid low on YS1

YR1 more resistance last year with a few tradable drops before it cleared
Wait - you are saying "the low" was DJI YS3, SPX YS2 and NDX YS1 all on the same day and after those held the low was in?

Yes

And not the first time that markets have made a major turn with multiple main indexes on major levels
Does this work on cryptos?

Yes, in a modified way.

BTC high of 2021 is YR3.

But the % moves are often so large, that the market will trade through levels much more quickly than stocks or other assets. So this needs to be factored in.
BTC again with addition of half-year pivots

Jan - Jun
Jul - Dec

yearlies in thick crosses on my charts, half-year in dots

So now "the 2020 low" on HS1 stands out.

but a lot of levels pretty quick
I can go on, suffice to say I've seen these work on indexes, cryptos, VIX, sector, bond, commodity ETFs, & forex

But the pivot is still the most important because that is the trend

Resistance is potential turn, so that is judgment what to do? Let play, hedge, exit?
Support is potential turn, so what to do? Cover if short, buy?

But main money is NOT made by selling resistance and buying support, because these are actually counter-trend

Although buying a monthly S1 in context of above YP HP QP often works

Main $ made with trend
That said, the more indexes at major R or S levels, more likely a turn is important

And if it doesn't turn and market continues like we saw on indexes rallying above YR1s, that's important too

PS: for swing trading on short term charts, monthly & weekly R & S work great

end

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More from @MarsiliosMM

15 Sep
#MarsiliosTA

Bollinger bands

Interesting concept - 20MA, then 2 standard deviations away from it create the bands - you can also edit the MA

It does work - like all market indicators, nuance required for best results

If really interested read the book by the creator
Here's BTC with just the daily BBs

So how does this work?

Sometimes taking reversal trade on band is awesome, sometimes slaughtered

Context is key
Slope matters a lot
Divergence is what the pros look for

To explain...
Power move, up or down, is high & close outside the band with the band sloping strongly in direction of the trend - this usually (not always) means continuation

You have to review charts to get this concept but now I will mark arrows with this power move outside band
Read 9 tweets
12 Sep
Also should I continue TA threads?

See hashtag #MarsiliosTA for intro to

pivots
simple MAs
tweaked MACD

combined these give us great idea of "trend" and is my core positioning guidance

if continuing, then:
Bollinger bands & how I use them - divergence & spotting reversals, 1st stage in change of trend

Along with the momentum indicators RSI (better) and stoch (more like early warning, I don't use this much)

Already sketched entry idea, but really I have 3 setups, & 2 variations
Then we have risk management, when to hold, when to cut, stops

Exits - actually back to MACD histogram for this, along with all else
Read 4 tweets
12 Sep
Total Sum

Stocks have gone further & smoother than I ever imagined at start of 2021, unprecedented rally with SPX above smoothly rising D50MA since election except, count them, 2 days!

Obv aided by US tech, GOOGL +60%, MSFT +32%, banks also up decently, energy, pretty broad
And whether market tops on the "worst astro" (maybe just in?) or has even more massive blow-off next year with Jup in Pisces remains to be seen

Near term however, everything lining up for Sept smash

All major index TA
VIX, with VXX SVXY nearly there
Astro many ways weak ahead!
Preferred scenario is risk assets down to end Sept & then another low 10/8-10/10

For stocks probably not easy as aggressive dip buyers have made a lot of $, and indexes come back over and over

This is a sharp counter-trend call but that's how I see it
Read 6 tweets
12 Sep
Index TA

Now some of these lines will make more sense to those who read TA threads

DJI exceeded QR1 AugR1 combo for 2 trading days, since then levels as resistance; slight poke above QR1 9/2 (small red arrow)
Broke SepP 9/7 (orange)
Broke D50MA 9/9
Back under YR1 9/10 (red)
This is significant technical deterioration in short amount of time

Medium term levels acting as resistance
Pivot status change
Break of D50 & yearly level

So, comeback or smash? With astro, thinking smash
SPX

HR1 QR2 resistance
Sept pivot break

Still far above D50MA though
Read 8 tweets
12 Sep
Astro (long thread)

Pluto Rx in Capricorn-Saturn from 6/29
Saturn ruling sign & term, should be quite nasty, these 4' among worst in zodiac. Though some bond rally & covid again, muted impact for markets.

FOMC has twisted everything:

Bad news = QE pumping = good for markets
Could worst astro produce big top? Maybe, but depends on taper schedule; more likely is slow taper & gradual hike so perhaps big blow-off top next year 2022

Neptune in Pisces-Mars from 1/23, Rx from 6/25
Expected volatility & larger moves both ways; this term in play a while
Uranus in Taurus-Jupiter from 7/7, Rx from 8/19
Think this is helping tech & cryptos with Jupiter in Aqu

*

Saturn Rx in Aqu-Ven 6/18
Saturn worse out of term Jupiter, & helping safe havens lift when triggered; but not hitting that hard in big picture

Might take direct?
Read 15 tweets
12 Sep
Full market analysis ahead:

Review
Astro
TA (just a bit)
Sum with next forecast

Check threadreader post after each section

Read what sections interest you

This process has resulted in many accurate takes on major asset classes - focus on indexes, cryptos & safe haven trades
Many - but not all - accurate statements from last week:

From spread,
Indexes: "Prefer 9/6-8 trading top, then lower into following weeks"
Good for indexes so far, main futures made highs 9/2-7 and tests 9/6, leader NQ 9/7 high, then all lower
This gets check!
Cryptos: "Same, but less damage expected, could stretch to 9/10 top"
Ugh, 9/6 key high, but more damage

Hottest coins SOL ALGO LUNA highs closer to 9/10, and ATOM pushing higher today

I don't have different astro on every coin, only general conditions, TA for the rest
Read 11 tweets

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