Fig 1 of Kanduc & Shoenfeld (2020) uses a very simple analysis: shows that CoV-2 shares many 6-chain amino acid sequences with human and mouse genomes, but not other genomes such as cow, pig, gorilla, chimp, rhesus monkey, fruit bat
2/ The same applies to polio, measles, dengue, influenza H1N1, smallpox, HPV, and Ebola viruses. Also bacterial pathogens like anthrax, plague and toxoplasmosis; all overlap more with mouse (and rat) than other animals.
3/ This implies we have frequently swapped pathogens with rodents - which we live very closely with. (Apparently bat experts say bats have the most dangerous viruses. But rodent experts say THEY, rodents, harbour the worst viruses!)
4/ But CoV-2 doesn’t bind well to mouse ACE2
This strongly suggests
(a) CoV-2 has undergone many cycles of replication in humanized mice engineered to express human ACE2 (lab-leak)
Or
(b) CoV-2 has been in humans for years, & before that it was in mouse-like rodents, not bats
5/ Note that chimp doesn’t overlap much with us – presumably because our/their sequences have changed to avoid infection in the last 6.5 million years
This implies that fruit bats may also be rather different from eg horseshoe bat in their sequences
6/ Kanduc & Shoenfeld don’t show us the CoV-2 overlap with horseshoe bat. We’d like to make the comparison of that overlap with the mouse one. Maybe they’ll publish that soon
7/ For those without biological backgrounds:
1. the most important defenses against viruses are T cells, not antibodies (since viruses spend most of their time INSIDE cells)
Is something else going on? Didn't measles come from cattle about 1000 yrs ago? So why no strong cattle signal there?
My interpretation of this data is that sequences that exist in the human proteome are rapidly selected in viruses because we lack T cell receptors (equiv of antibodies) for them.
(I thought obvious but other interpretations exist eg viral sequences have invaded human proteome)
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The problem is that we essentially have ONE observation - that hundreds of often unrelated viruses in all regions (outside the Tropics) with very diverse climates, have winter seasonality
2/
If we say the winter surge of colds in one place is due to eg school buses, business travel and humidity, but somewhere else it's sports events, snow and sunshine, we are cheating. We’re “overfitting” - we are using too many variables to model a 1-d phenomenon
3/
One reason I’m convinced that viruses moderate their pathogenicity much more than is often appreciated comes from observations of hemorrhagic fevers, which give fascinating insights
/1
People occasionally pick up viruses from animals especially rodents & bats. Usually they cause mild flu-like symptoms but here's the extraordinary thing: if they get a hold they often cause internal & external bleeding & are fatal – in spite of NOT being well-adapted to humans
/2
Ebola is one example. There are many others eg Rift Valley, Lujo, Bolivian and Brazilian hem. fevers. Ebola, Marburg, Crimean-Congo and Lassa hem. fevers can spread from person to person.
/3
IMO you can’t understand CoV-2 or any other virus without understanding the "virulence-transmission trade-off hypothesis"
This hypothesis was introduced in the 1950s to explain observations of myxomatosis. Basically, very mild strains became moderate, while very virulent ones also became moderate
The hypothesis says a virus must balance the amount of shedding against the time during which the shedding takes place – the time will be reduced if viral virulence is too great
1/ The Nobel laureate André Lwoff suggested part of the hypothesis in 1959, when he noted that the degree of virulence of viruses is often related to their level of thermal sensitivity
2/ In 1979, Richman and Murphy developed this further, discussing many examples of thermal sensitivity in natural and lab‐made viral strains, and noting that the near‐universal attenuation of ts strains made them good candidates for vaccines. doi.org/10.1093/clinid…
3/ The full hypothesis was proposed by Shaw Stewart and discussed at length in 2016, focusing on seasonality and the natural selection of strains with varying degrees of thermal sensitivity and pathogenicity
The UK 10-day self-isolation period is highly disruptive to industry.
But it may also be counter-productive in combating Covid-19.
2/ 5
We know that Covid-19 incubation periods vary hugely, with some illnesses appearing 2 or 3 days after exposure, but others taking 14 days or more.
Some of this variation is likely to be related to the properties of the particular “isolate” (ie strain) involved.
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It is also likely that strains with short incubation periods are more pathogenic. This is the basis of the “virulence-transmission trade-off hypothesis” and has been proposed for several viruses including influenza and myxomatosis.