Ishiba is second in both, 26.6%/23.3%. Kishida third with 18.8%/20.7%.
Takaichi is a distance fifth with 4%. Whatever game Abe is trying to play with Takaichi is going to get harder to pull off if Kono cements that lead.
The problem, of course, is that the proportional distribution of the rank-and-file votes means that it is really difficult to win in the first round, creating more room for insider gamesmanship in the second round.
Here's Takahashi Yoichi, longtime economic adviser to Abe, casting doubt on the legitimacy of the Kyodo poll.
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The share of the electorate that says they will vote for the LDP in the general election rose ten points, to 53% (!). In case there were any doubt about Suga's impact down ballot...
The question is how the LDP's choice affects that number going forward. But the window of opportunity for the opposition is closing.
Some other data points from the Nikkei poll:
-72% say that Suga's decision to exit was proper (which is actually lower than the 88% who approved of Abe's decision last year)
New Nikkei poll shows the dynamics of the race at the popular level. 1) Kono is the popular favorite (27%), the LDP grassroots favorite (31%), and has decent support from independents (22%).
2) Ishiba continues to enjoy popular and grassroots support, but since it appears that he's not running, the question now is where his supporters go.
3) Kishida's numbers have improved, passing Ishiba for second place among LDP supporters. Is his insider support enough to compensate for the gap with Kono and perhaps repeat Abe's 2012 comeback against the more-popular Ishiba?
First section: national security
-Undo Abe-era national security laws (state secrecy, conspiracy, 2015 collective self-defense laws)
-Asian diplomacy that advances peace, based on the constitution
-Accede to treaty banning nuclear weapons
-Suspend base construction at Henoko
Second: Covid-19 measures based on science
-Reverse prevailing policies reducing medical costs, promote public health
-Improve treatment of essential workers
-Provide full financial support to individuals and companies unemployed and bankrupted by the shock