Here's the general election policy pact concluded by the @CDP2017 @jcp_cc @SDPJapan @yamamototaro0 @shiminrengo. cdp-japan.jp/files/download…
First section: national security
-Undo Abe-era national security laws (state secrecy, conspiracy, 2015 collective self-defense laws)
-Asian diplomacy that advances peace, based on the constitution
-Accede to treaty banning nuclear weapons
-Suspend base construction at Henoko
Second: Covid-19 measures based on science
-Reverse prevailing policies reducing medical costs, promote public health
-Improve treatment of essential workers
-Provide full financial support to individuals and companies unemployed and bankrupted by the shock
Third: inequality and poverty reduction
-Raise the minimum wage, improve treatment of freelancers and non-regular workers
-Expand public support for healthcare, education, child care, housing for younger generations
-Tax reform to promote redistribution, reduce consumption tax
Fourth: energy transition
-Promote renewables, phase out coal, realize nuclear-free decarbonization
-Foster new industries, esp. in regions, to promote energy transition
-Realize "political system that protects lives from natural disasters"
-Support ag to ensure food security
Five: realizing a free and fair society from the perspective of gender
-Laws to ensure selective surnames, LGBT rights, prevent sexual violence
-Review employment and family systems and related services from the perspective of gender equality
Six: fair and transparent administration
-Investigate Moritomo/Kake Gakuen, cherry blossom viewing allegations
-Appoint recommended candidates to Science Council
-Reform the Cabinet Personnel Bureau
With the exception of section five, which at least points in the direction of dramatically different type of society, what strikes me most about this is how backward-looking it is.
The fixation on the Abe-era laws, for example, seems largely out of step with the public's thinking on national security given concerns about China. Is there really much appetite for repealing the 2015 laws?
Meanwhile, say what you will about the Abe government, but it did raise minimum wage repeatedly, pressure corporate Japan constantly about wage increases, strive to improve conditions for non-regular workers, and aimed for "social security for all generations" (lifted from DPJ).
The energy section is also hand-wavey. Obviously the Suga administration has been ramping up efforts on renewables, but also in the immediate term, it is very difficult to see how Japan cuts emissions sharply without some nuclear generation.
I realize that this is a "lowest-common-denominator" agenda and not necessarily a blueprint for government, but I wish, particularly on foreign policy, they would stop fighting the battles of 2015.
Anyway, there's not much point fixating on the opposition's platform, since Japan's elections seem dominated by trust, perceptions of competence, and other valence issues.
On the plus side, at least they're not running against monetary easing anymore.

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More from @observingjapan

14 Sep
Because I'm a glutton for punishment, I've started reading Takaichi Sanae's newly released campaign book.
Let's just say that it takes only a few pages before she starts essentializing about Japan.
The title itself is explicit homage to Abe: 美しく、強く、成長する国へ. Not just towards a beautiful country, but towards a beautiful, strong, and growing country.
Read 43 tweets
12 Sep
Kono on Fuji TV's Mr Sunday.
Naturally, he says that the LDP leader should be able to speak directly to the public, have the support of the public.
Asked what he saw as absolutely necessary to do in office, he starts with Covid and then launches into a defense of the vaccination campaign.
Read 8 tweets
12 Sep
The share of the electorate that says they will vote for the LDP in the general election rose ten points, to 53% (!). In case there were any doubt about Suga's impact down ballot...
The question is how the LDP's choice affects that number going forward. But the window of opportunity for the opposition is closing.
Some other data points from the Nikkei poll:
-72% say that Suga's decision to exit was proper (which is actually lower than the 88% who approved of Abe's decision last year)
Read 7 tweets
11 Sep
New Nikkei poll shows the dynamics of the race at the popular level.
1) Kono is the popular favorite (27%), the LDP grassroots favorite (31%), and has decent support from independents (22%).
2) Ishiba continues to enjoy popular and grassroots support, but since it appears that he's not running, the question now is where his supporters go.
3) Kishida's numbers have improved, passing Ishiba for second place among LDP supporters. Is his insider support enough to compensate for the gap with Kono and perhaps repeat Abe's 2012 comeback against the more-popular Ishiba?
Read 5 tweets
7 Sep
With a general election imminent, perhaps not surprising that members will try to vote in a way that they think maximizes their chances.
Not being able to rely on factional discipline will make it harder to anticipate the outcome, of course.
There's also probably more than a little truth to the perception of Kono the maverick vs. Kishida the pliable.
Read 5 tweets
5 Sep
Kyodo has @konotarogomame with a big jump, leading among the general public (32%) and even more so among LDP supporters (37%).
Ishiba is second in both, 26.6%/23.3%. Kishida third with 18.8%/20.7%.
Takaichi is a distance fifth with 4%. Whatever game Abe is trying to play with Takaichi is going to get harder to pull off if Kono cements that lead.
Read 5 tweets

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