New Nikkei poll shows the dynamics of the race at the popular level.
1) Kono is the popular favorite (27%), the LDP grassroots favorite (31%), and has decent support from independents (22%).
1) Kono is the popular favorite (27%), the LDP grassroots favorite (31%), and has decent support from independents (22%).
https://twitter.com/IsayaShimizu/status/1436651022579949575
2) Ishiba continues to enjoy popular and grassroots support, but since it appears that he's not running, the question now is where his supporters go.
3) Kishida's numbers have improved, passing Ishiba for second place among LDP supporters. Is his insider support enough to compensate for the gap with Kono and perhaps repeat Abe's 2012 comeback against the more-popular Ishiba?
4) Takaichi is a distinctly minority taste. She got a bump among LDP supporters, from 4% to 12%, but 7% overall and 4% among independents suggests that she could be at least as much an electoral liability as Suga (for very different reasons).
Another thought on Kishida: to some extent, his weakness is the story of the race. His inability to build a strong national brand has created the opening for Kono that might otherwise not have existed if LDP MPs were more confident in Kishida's leadership.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
