"Stocks - bull party to continue; maybe quiet week ahead but expecting higher than Friday's highs this week or next"
check for SPX NDX RUT NYA ARKK, just not DJI
"Cryptos - Prefer more positive from early 8/30 or anytime from now; if does not kick in then 9/2 low & UP"
ETH low late 8/29 then massive rally
BTC low late 8/31 then up
next largest market cap ADA 8/30 then up
close enough? i think so esp if you took the ETH long
"Safe havens - Probably whacked esp 9/2 midday into following week"
VIX, TLT & DXY all lower on the week, so 3/4 that I track (and all 4 together would be rare)
From 9/2 remains to be seen
So, basically, another week "pretty good" take on these major asset classes
I'm not perfect but that review will be interesting on how much is actually written out like this in advance
Asset class performance - just what happened, so y'all know what I am looking at
Risk-on
Indexes: SPX NDX RUT NYA ARKK up, NDX & ARKK the best (as called); DJI bit lower
Cryptos: ETH massive up, BTC up, ADA up but faded
For me clear connection of NDX ARKK & ETH rally...
which is simply the most liked tech trades, due to Venus position
Commodities: (not that active here, but good opportunities) USO small, DBC some up, DBA down
High Yield (not traded, market tell): barely up
*
Safe havens:
VIX VXX SVXY (inverse) all lower on the week, so far turn 9/1-2
TLT did get whacked last week despite massive EE# miss
DXY down
GLD & SLV rallied on DXY drop
As noted, 3/4 of these lower
Often we will see safe haven strength before larger index drop
Interesting concept - 20MA, then 2 standard deviations away from it create the bands - you can also edit the MA
It does work - like all market indicators, nuance required for best results
If really interested read the book by the creator
Here's BTC with just the daily BBs
So how does this work?
Sometimes taking reversal trade on band is awesome, sometimes slaughtered
Context is key
Slope matters a lot
Divergence is what the pros look for
To explain...
Power move, up or down, is high & close outside the band with the band sloping strongly in direction of the trend - this usually (not always) means continuation
You have to review charts to get this concept but now I will mark arrows with this power move outside band
Stocks have gone further & smoother than I ever imagined at start of 2021, unprecedented rally with SPX above smoothly rising D50MA since election except, count them, 2 days!
Obv aided by US tech, GOOGL +60%, MSFT +32%, banks also up decently, energy, pretty broad
And whether market tops on the "worst astro" (maybe just in?) or has even more massive blow-off next year with Jup in Pisces remains to be seen
Near term however, everything lining up for Sept smash
All major index TA
VIX, with VXX SVXY nearly there
Astro many ways weak ahead!
Preferred scenario is risk assets down to end Sept & then another low 10/8-10/10
For stocks probably not easy as aggressive dip buyers have made a lot of $, and indexes come back over and over
This is a sharp counter-trend call but that's how I see it
Now some of these lines will make more sense to those who read TA threads
DJI exceeded QR1 AugR1 combo for 2 trading days, since then levels as resistance; slight poke above QR1 9/2 (small red arrow)
Broke SepP 9/7 (orange)
Broke D50MA 9/9
Back under YR1 9/10 (red)
This is significant technical deterioration in short amount of time
Medium term levels acting as resistance
Pivot status change
Break of D50 & yearly level
Pluto Rx in Capricorn-Saturn from 6/29
Saturn ruling sign & term, should be quite nasty, these 4' among worst in zodiac. Though some bond rally & covid again, muted impact for markets.
FOMC has twisted everything:
Bad news = QE pumping = good for markets
Could worst astro produce big top? Maybe, but depends on taper schedule; more likely is slow taper & gradual hike so perhaps big blow-off top next year 2022
Neptune in Pisces-Mars from 1/23, Rx from 6/25
Expected volatility & larger moves both ways; this term in play a while
Uranus in Taurus-Jupiter from 7/7, Rx from 8/19
Think this is helping tech & cryptos with Jupiter in Aqu
*
Saturn Rx in Aqu-Ven 6/18
Saturn worse out of term Jupiter, & helping safe havens lift when triggered; but not hitting that hard in big picture
Review
Astro
TA (just a bit)
Sum with next forecast
Check threadreader post after each section
Read what sections interest you
This process has resulted in many accurate takes on major asset classes - focus on indexes, cryptos & safe haven trades
Many - but not all - accurate statements from last week:
From spread,
Indexes: "Prefer 9/6-8 trading top, then lower into following weeks"
Good for indexes so far, main futures made highs 9/2-7 and tests 9/6, leader NQ 9/7 high, then all lower
This gets check!
Cryptos: "Same, but less damage expected, could stretch to 9/10 top"
Ugh, 9/6 key high, but more damage
Hottest coins SOL ALGO LUNA highs closer to 9/10, and ATOM pushing higher today
I don't have different astro on every coin, only general conditions, TA for the rest