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Marsilio's Market Musings

5 Sep, 10 tweets, 2 min read

Total Sum
In big picture 2 major positives for stocks/risk just happened or about to:
NN in term of Mercury last week, historical bullish edge
Jupiter in term Mars this week, best term for stocks in bull markets by decent margin

What to make of this?

I've been trying to wrap head around indexes continuing to coast higher with what is my view, significant astro weakness:

Pluto in Cap-Saturn (double Saturn sign & term ruler)
Jupiter in Aquarius-Saturn (same!)

Instead just easy coast up up up

My conclusion has been:

Bad news = good, because bad = QE continues, and no hikes

And maybe I have been dumb to adopt this so late, but one wonders, how this can continue - fasting doubling of SPX ever? 100%+ off covid low, 18 months.

Recently validated a few times with JPow and EE#

So this can end either:

Worst astro passes, covid recedes, FOMC starts tapering, then rate hikes; institutions realize gig is up

So worst astro = near market top

OR

FOMC continues to accommodate despite improving data, no hikes, very slow reluctant taper, occasional sound bites about it but jeez...

That would mean big blow-off further strength into 2022 Jupiter Pisces cnj Neptune

Probably the latter is more likely

That's big pic

Near term, combo of 3 planets losing term strength soon, plus Sun term change, plus Moon cycle, Mars in term Saturn, there's a lot ahead

Think some trading top immanent, and task is just to watch & adjust crypto/ index ports to avoid damage

No sign of trouble currently, & indexes would have to have some change of pivot status along with VIX to really hold any shorts (not yet!) or go bigger

Main call for week both stocks & cyptos is 9/6 high
Turnaround Tues selling
Weds probably recovers
Thurs up? Then more at risk

Safe havens may not get really in gear to following week

Basic call is 9/6-8 top possible stretch to 9/10 but that is not preferred

Ideally stocks top first with more damage, cryptos less damage

There it is folks thanks for reading

Google sheet link - to show these *timestamped* weekly sums

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

good luck, ciao
~Marsilio~

but I'd like to do just one more data study!

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More from @MarsiliosMM

Marsilio's Market Musings

@MarsiliosMM

15 Sep

#MarsiliosTA

Bollinger bands

Interesting concept - 20MA, then 2 standard deviations away from it create the bands - you can also edit the MA

It does work - like all market indicators, nuance required for best results

If really interested read the book by the creator

Here's BTC with just the daily BBs

So how does this work?

Sometimes taking reversal trade on band is awesome, sometimes slaughtered

Context is key
Slope matters a lot
Divergence is what the pros look for

To explain...

Power move, up or down, is high & close outside the band with the band sloping strongly in direction of the trend - this usually (not always) means continuation

You have to review charts to get this concept but now I will mark arrows with this power move outside band

Read 9 tweets

Marsilio's Market Musings

@MarsiliosMM

12 Sep

Also should I continue TA threads?

See hashtag #MarsiliosTA for intro to

pivots
simple MAs
tweaked MACD

combined these give us great idea of "trend" and is my core positioning guidance

if continuing, then:

Bollinger bands & how I use them - divergence & spotting reversals, 1st stage in change of trend

Along with the momentum indicators RSI (better) and stoch (more like early warning, I don't use this much)

Already sketched entry idea, but really I have 3 setups, & 2 variations

Then we have risk management, when to hold, when to cut, stops

Exits - actually back to MACD histogram for this, along with all else

Read 4 tweets

Marsilio's Market Musings

@MarsiliosMM

12 Sep

Total Sum

Stocks have gone further & smoother than I ever imagined at start of 2021, unprecedented rally with SPX above smoothly rising D50MA since election except, count them, 2 days!

Obv aided by US tech, GOOGL +60%, MSFT +32%, banks also up decently, energy, pretty broad

And whether market tops on the "worst astro" (maybe just in?) or has even more massive blow-off next year with Jup in Pisces remains to be seen

Near term however, everything lining up for Sept smash

All major index TA
VIX, with VXX SVXY nearly there
Astro many ways weak ahead!

Preferred scenario is risk assets down to end Sept & then another low 10/8-10/10

For stocks probably not easy as aggressive dip buyers have made a lot of $, and indexes come back over and over

This is a sharp counter-trend call but that's how I see it

Read 6 tweets

Marsilio's Market Musings

@MarsiliosMM

12 Sep

Index TA

Now some of these lines will make more sense to those who read TA threads

DJI exceeded QR1 AugR1 combo for 2 trading days, since then levels as resistance; slight poke above QR1 9/2 (small red arrow)
Broke SepP 9/7 (orange)
Broke D50MA 9/9
Back under YR1 9/10 (red)

This is significant technical deterioration in short amount of time

Medium term levels acting as resistance
Pivot status change
Break of D50 & yearly level

So, comeback or smash? With astro, thinking smash

SPX

HR1 QR2 resistance
Sept pivot break

Still far above D50MA though

Read 8 tweets

Marsilio's Market Musings

@MarsiliosMM

12 Sep

Astro (long thread)

Pluto Rx in Capricorn-Saturn from 6/29
Saturn ruling sign & term, should be quite nasty, these 4' among worst in zodiac. Though some bond rally & covid again, muted impact for markets.

FOMC has twisted everything:

Bad news = QE pumping = good for markets

Could worst astro produce big top? Maybe, but depends on taper schedule; more likely is slow taper & gradual hike so perhaps big blow-off top next year 2022

Neptune in Pisces-Mars from 1/23, Rx from 6/25
Expected volatility & larger moves both ways; this term in play a while

Uranus in Taurus-Jupiter from 7/7, Rx from 8/19
Think this is helping tech & cryptos with Jupiter in Aqu

*

Saturn Rx in Aqu-Ven 6/18
Saturn worse out of term Jupiter, & helping safe havens lift when triggered; but not hitting that hard in big picture

Might take direct?

Read 15 tweets

Marsilio's Market Musings

@MarsiliosMM

12 Sep

Full market analysis ahead:

Review
Astro
TA (just a bit)
Sum with next forecast

Check threadreader post after each section

Read what sections interest you

This process has resulted in many accurate takes on major asset classes - focus on indexes, cryptos & safe haven trades

Many - but not all - accurate statements from last week:

From spread,
Indexes: "Prefer 9/6-8 trading top, then lower into following weeks"
Good for indexes so far, main futures made highs 9/2-7 and tests 9/6, leader NQ 9/7 high, then all lower
This gets check!

Cryptos: "Same, but less damage expected, could stretch to 9/10 top"
Ugh, 9/6 key high, but more damage

Hottest coins SOL ALGO LUNA highs closer to 9/10, and ATOM pushing higher today

I don't have different astro on every coin, only general conditions, TA for the rest

Read 11 tweets

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