It was a privilege to delve into great progress being made across economics, psychology, sociology, political science, & anthropology & return to fundamental questions in the history & philosophy of science. Thanks @OUPAcademic & all those who helped.
It is more difficult (but not impossible) to reach consensus cumulative knowledge in social sciences, but that is due to the diversity of human experience & the complex, cross-level processes we study, rather than our methods. Social scientists recognize their uphill battle
3/n
Social scientists face a long list of biases, from unrepresentative researchers to imperfect scientific practices to endemic difficulties of studying ourselves. But they are longstanding & now better known, not worse; we are increasingly rigorous, relevant, & self-reflective
4/n
The reproducibility movement has highlighted both fundamental & procedural problems in social science & successfully reformed practice. But we are unlikely to agree on procedural standardization. Instead, we are learning that much research is exploratory & we need all kinds.
5/n
The empirical, causal inference, & big data revolutions are important for social science progress, but so is team science, interdisciplinary, & theoretical & methodological pluralism. Stark theory & methods dichotomies are in decline as new generations learn from all sides
6/n
The social sciences are slowly internationalizing & diversifying. That has brought new questions, evidence, & interpretations & drawn attention to how what we study is a product of who we are. But more diverse critics have systematized our studies, not simply critiqued them
7/n
Most social science occurs in universities, with all their faults, but there is not a crisis when it comes to producing more social science knowledge. Instead, the social sciences are stable, growing in applied fields, & never the main sources of university funding growth
8/n
Each discipline comes with its own biases & odd internal organization. But that does not necessitate starting over. Interdisciplinarity by decree doesn't work. But integration in applied fields, exporting established ideas from one field to another, & team science all do.
9/n
We are often interested in difficult-to-answer questions with individual & social determinants over different time scales. Some progress comes from humility; we no longer see findings as temporally or geographically universal & we are no longer sticklers for individualism
10/n
All social science draws from history (our available data) & potential applications (our aspirations for change). We need to recognize the political unrepresentativeness that guides goals & our history of overpromising & social engineering. But practice also helps us learn
11/n
Popularization is a common source of misunderstanding, but it is an opportunity to clarify disagreements, pare down overbroad claims, & bring practitioners & synthesizers into the assessment of evidence. Popular conversations advance research, but take time to congeal.
12/n
Most social scientists share my many reasons for optimism, but also cite (somewhat contradictory) reasons for pessimism. Many of the problems have been with us from the beginning.
We have a long way to go, but should be excited about the direction of our fields.
Left parties in many countries have exchanged support from low-education voters for high-education voters since 1970, but without becoming parties of the rich; the right in many places has become a coalition of the rich & the uneducated
The reversal of the educational cleavage in most countries is strongly linked to the emergence of a new sociocultural axis of political conflict & the rise of Green & anti-immigration politics
While the shift is global, the US stands out as moving from almost no left/right division on education & a large division on income in 1970 to a large division on education & almost no division on income by 2010 (by this measure)
Long way to go, but more traditional NSF funding & DOE national lab funding have successfully attached themselves as solutions to today’s focus problem of Chinese technology competition; also, the distributed locations of national labs & grant-seeking universities still matter
Compared to other issue areas, significant science & tech policy changes involve more leadership from administrative agencies; but the policymaking network is sparsely connected with no core; there has long been high international but low public influence amazon.com/Artists-Possib…
There is now a good chance that we'll more than double traditional NSF directorate funding (while creating a new directorate & funding national labs) under the guise of an anti-China technology competition bill
Senate bill now more closely tracks the House bill, but with more $
Polled issue opinions are associated with ballot initiative outcomes but popular policies underperform; voters systematically prefer the "no" option #polisciresearch dropbox.com/s/zn2uf6kyv8id…
CW among consultants is that an initiative should start with 2/3 support in the polls to pass (with 50%), usually explained not just as status quo bias but responsiveness to negative information; eg, con spending on initiatives is more important than pro: amazon.com/Populist-Parad…
Democrats lost vote share among Latinos, from 71-29% in 2016 to 63-37% in two-way, but gained among white voters with a college degree, from 50-50 to 54-46% in 2020
The run-for-President successful Republican agenda is apparently:
- restrict mail voting
- fine social media for bans
- riot / protest restriction
- ban vaccine passports
- ban transgender in girls sports
- spend the federal stimulus miamiherald.com/news/politics-…
Noem is pursuing a similar focus on symbolic cultural politics & appeals to conservative media: nytimes.com/2021/05/02/us/…
In Red State Blues, I find that Republican control of states polarized cultural politics but didn’t shift state economic policy much: amazon.com/Red-State-Blue…
Meanwhile, Democratic state governments are continuing to move leftward on economic & cultural issues, though without reinvention: seattletimes.com/seattle-news/p…
Federal $ means size & scope of gov will continue growing across Dem & Rep states, continuing long patterns I found
Biden’s reconciliation-driven spend without strings or reform policy agenda seems to reverse Obama-era technocratic trends in Democratic policymaking, with a return to old Dem pol constituency distribution objectives. But it also reflects updated & diversifying academic advice
Economists have largely changed their balance of concerns on deficit spending & on cash benefits. Biden is also relying on more diverse & sociologically-inspired academic advice, visible in defining infrastructure to include social care & greater attention to racial equity.
Points 3 & 4 in @ezraklein's column are similar, but he emphasizes economics losing credibility & change in public mood: nytimes.com/2021/04/08/opi…
Point #2 about the new generation of staffers also applies to the academic help: more diverse, liberal, & less tied to traditional econ