A brief explainer on ballot styles and why they make injecting manufactured (aka bamboo) ballots into the system next to impossible.

A thread using maps of @maricopacounty

*all numbers are estimates using GIS union algorithm.
Ballot styles are what we refer to the different versions of the ballot. Every ballot has multiple races on it with different contests for different areas.

Maricopa would have 1 ballot style without cds, lds, cities, schools, etc...
At this point printing bamboo ballots would be pretty simple. Since everyone gets one ballot you can just load up on one style. Let's add congress.

There are now 8 ballot styles
Still not bad, pretty easy to hide bamboo ballots amongst only 8 ballot styles and make everything look on the up and up. Let's add legislative districts. Total is now 46
We're now starting to run into problems. While 46 is a manageable number of ballot styles the area and populations are really starting to vary. If we inject 15k bamboo ballots in a tiny area of Scottsdale it will be obvious.

Adding precincts. Total 772
Just got real...We now need to inject 772 different bamboo styles keeping population and voting behaviors into consideration. Luck! We can pull most of this off azsos so lets start coding.

Adding school districts, total now 1,017
We are nearing fantasy realm. From here on out a bamboo roadmap needs to come from a parsed and reconstructed county results file. Any registration denominators either need to be estimated with either math or geocoding.

City/Town boundaries: estimate now 1,314
The numbers just go up from here. I have not added JP, Constable, Special Taxing, MCBOS, etc...

Maricopa county had 10,920 different ballot styles.

Fraudulent ballots would have to consider population and voting behavior among frequently changing, small geographic spaces.

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More from @Garrett_Archer

13 Sep
Someone just sent me a link to an entire @maricopacounty voter file that was posted online for public access by an outside the state GOP group.
or alleged GOP group. I've never heard of them and I haven't found any filings yet.
To be clear. It's the publicly available file. There are no restricted fields in there, but posting it online without a password is against statute.
Read 6 tweets
7 Sep
Ok, as requested. I looked at @SKeshel analysis, which I will thread here.

All in all, pretty basic stuff. A lot of "this looks weird therefore it must be fraud."

1/*
Report starts with "Number of disputed ballots." Disputed by whom? There has been a ton of unsubstantiated speculation in this area with literally zero empirical evidence brought forth by those claiming disputed ballots.

2/*
Non-Citizen voters:
Keshel claims to have a survey of voters by Trump's legal team for the estimate of 36k to 237k non-citizens (that MoE).

They then go after the "fed-only" which was .4% of cast ballots in Maricopa (8,114). Here's how they broke

3/*
Read 10 tweets
20 Aug
I need to go through a Jovan Pulitzer video that "the media doesn't want you to know."

He is showing his hand at what may be on the report.

It's called "Legal Ballots Are Encoded," and like most things Jovan puts out. It is extremely misleading.

A thread:
In the video, Jovan is showing an extremely closeup of what I assume is a Maricopa ballot. He then tells people:
"Watch it for your own eyes."
"Those are the coding in the ballot."
"This is what our systems do."
At :36 he goes on to blames the media for talking about "bamboo ballots" and that it was never about bamboo (it was, but I digress). "They play on your mind and play tricks and jokes on you because they think you are all a bunch of cabbage heads."
Read 11 tweets
1 Jul
Bennett changes his tone entirely depending upon the perceived bend of the outlet.
Here's what's wrong about this. A thread 👇

t.me/ArizonaAuditLi…
-The batching disparity he mentions at :42 is arbitrary based on the audit, there's nothing nefarious. In fact, it's concerning since it's unknown at this moment if the ballots remain grouped in their original batches.
-1:16: "the county finally admitted that they had never given these documents, some documents called blue sheets that explain how they took ballots out of batches and sent them to duplication."

They didn't include it because the subpoena didn't ask for it per county response.
Read 11 tweets
24 May
Some #AZ #COVID19 stats for 5/24
Dailies
Tests: 4,576 | Testing Day Rank: 359
Cases: 450 | Day Rank: 338
Deaths: 0 | Death Rank: 415
7 Day Case Average: 534
7 Day Case Average Change from Peak: -94.6%
7 Day Test Average: 5,786
7 Day Death Average: 12.7
Deaths this week: 8
Hospitalizations
Inpatient
COVID-19 Patients529 | Day Ranking: 82
7 Day percent Change: -10.9%
Days from Peak: 83 | Percent Change: -56%
ICU
COVID-19: 144 | Day Ranking: 385.5
Days from Peak: 132 | Percent Change: -87.8%
7 Day Percent Change: -27.6%
Percent on Ventilators: 38.89%
Vaccines
Doses Administered: 5,761,828 | New Today: 47,342
People with 1+ Dose: 3,259,477 | New Today: 43,794
People fully vaccinated: 2,747,601 | New Today: 15,236
Read 4 tweets
15 May
This isn't even close to accurate. A directory was recovered by a vendor that had ~20 sql files in it, 6 of which were tangentially related to 2020. @BennettArizona has already walked this back. A lot. #AZAudit
I also don't think Maricopa, the county, has only one database.
Anyway, the county will have a public meeting on Monday to explain this. I've said before the more interesting aspect of the fan letter is the chain of custody and batch issues, or at least what appear to be issues.
Read 4 tweets

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