Report starts with "Number of disputed ballots." Disputed by whom? There has been a ton of unsubstantiated speculation in this area with literally zero empirical evidence brought forth by those claiming disputed ballots.
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Non-Citizen voters:
Keshel claims to have a survey of voters by Trump's legal team for the estimate of 36k to 237k non-citizens (that MoE).
They then go after the "fed-only" which was .4% of cast ballots in Maricopa (8,114). Here's how they broke
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Statistical anomalous vote dumps:
This is a basic analysis of the @nytimes feed with election day circled (AZ processes EVs prior to election day). Had they analyzed the cast vote record, they would find these anomalies.
Here you go guys, you're welcome.
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Highly secretive ballot harvesting operation:
Based off an eye witness security guy, they are claiming not just harvesting, but literal ballot fraud. I will have a separate thread dedicated to how absurd this claim is because of the nearly infinite complexity of what is needed.
So now, Seth's actual report for Arizona. The wording of this report continually leads the reader to what they think is fraud. Maricopa is a big county that has exploded in growth, so he uses raw numbers a lot because they are big.
Keshel leads with a chart for Maricopa looking at D growth in the county between 16-20. But @EvanMcMullin did quite well in Maricopa. He was not on the ballot in 20, so many of these people went to Biden. Also, 1988 was largest D gain as a percent (49%)
In fact, looking at the same numbers...2016-2020 changes are big, but not the largest. That belongs to 2000-2004.
reg. changes:
04: +27%
20: +20%
vote changes:
04: +33%
20: +30%
R gains:
04: +42%
20: +33%
D gains:
04: +31%
20: +48%
Ironically, one county that Keshel deems as "clean" has even more drastic changes. Pinal. This (now) R county was +60% registration and +63% voting in 00-04. In 16-20: +31% and +42% respectively.
R voting at top of ticket is up +432% in Pinal 00-20
Maricopa +107%
Final summary. This is a basic analysis that anyone on #ElectionTwitter can do in a day. The difference is that to lead people to the fraud conclusion, numbers are presented in integers, as well as cherry picked.
All it does show is a growing state and a paradigm shift candidate
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*all numbers are estimates using GIS union algorithm.
Ballot styles are what we refer to the different versions of the ballot. Every ballot has multiple races on it with different contests for different areas.
Maricopa would have 1 ballot style without cds, lds, cities, schools, etc...
At this point printing bamboo ballots would be pretty simple. Since everyone gets one ballot you can just load up on one style. Let's add congress.
I need to go through a Jovan Pulitzer video that "the media doesn't want you to know."
He is showing his hand at what may be on the report.
It's called "Legal Ballots Are Encoded," and like most things Jovan puts out. It is extremely misleading.
A thread:
In the video, Jovan is showing an extremely closeup of what I assume is a Maricopa ballot. He then tells people:
"Watch it for your own eyes."
"Those are the coding in the ballot."
"This is what our systems do."
At :36 he goes on to blames the media for talking about "bamboo ballots" and that it was never about bamboo (it was, but I digress). "They play on your mind and play tricks and jokes on you because they think you are all a bunch of cabbage heads."
-The batching disparity he mentions at :42 is arbitrary based on the audit, there's nothing nefarious. In fact, it's concerning since it's unknown at this moment if the ballots remain grouped in their original batches.
-1:16: "the county finally admitted that they had never given these documents, some documents called blue sheets that explain how they took ballots out of batches and sent them to duplication."
They didn't include it because the subpoena didn't ask for it per county response.
Some #AZ#COVID19 stats for 5/24
Dailies
Tests: 4,576 | Testing Day Rank: 359
Cases: 450 | Day Rank: 338
Deaths: 0 | Death Rank: 415
7 Day Case Average: 534
7 Day Case Average Change from Peak: -94.6%
7 Day Test Average: 5,786
7 Day Death Average: 12.7
Deaths this week: 8
Hospitalizations
Inpatient
COVID-19 Patients529 | Day Ranking: 82
7 Day percent Change: -10.9%
Days from Peak: 83 | Percent Change: -56%
ICU
COVID-19: 144 | Day Ranking: 385.5
Days from Peak: 132 | Percent Change: -87.8%
7 Day Percent Change: -27.6%
Percent on Ventilators: 38.89%
Vaccines
Doses Administered: 5,761,828 | New Today: 47,342
People with 1+ Dose: 3,259,477 | New Today: 43,794
People fully vaccinated: 2,747,601 | New Today: 15,236
This isn't even close to accurate. A directory was recovered by a vendor that had ~20 sql files in it, 6 of which were tangentially related to 2020. @BennettArizona has already walked this back. A lot. #AZAudit
I also don't think Maricopa, the county, has only one database.
Anyway, the county will have a public meeting on Monday to explain this. I've said before the more interesting aspect of the fan letter is the chain of custody and batch issues, or at least what appear to be issues.