Basic strategy (wong) teasers carry the bulk of the discussion during NFL season - and rightfully so. But how many people are sleeping on teasing teams that are -6.5 down to -0.5? Here is a quick explanation of why (sometimes) it is a much better bet than you might think...
Week 1 is a good example as we have two 6.5 point favorites at home (Kansas City and Buffalo). Here are the current prices at for the spread and moneyline.

Buffalo -6.5 and -275
Kansas City -6.5 and -275
If you were to parlay the Bills and Chiefs on the moneyline at odds of -275 and -275, here is the math:

1.36 * 1.36 = 1.849 or odds of -118 (risking $118 to win $100).

If you are playing the same teaser you are getting both teams at -0.5 for odds of -110. 1.6% better.
Obviously, the main difference here is that any game ending in a tie will push the moneyline parlay, but lose the teaser. With the historic tie probability in the NFL at 0.1% it is not a significant difference, but adds around 1c to the price of the teaser.
With 7 being such an important number in the NFL, books tend to manage how they handle moving to and off of it in a different way. This often leaves times where the ML will move too much or too little, making the teaser in these situations more valuable than the parlay.
The general rule to keep in your mind is that -263 on the moneyline for a 6.5 point favorite (1.38 in decimal) is the cut off for books that offer 6 point teases at -110 and -270 on the moneyline for a 6.5 point favorite is the cut off for books that charge -115.

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More from @adamchernoff

13 Sep
Thread of NFL Week 2 bets and mini write-ups.

Thread will be updated throughout the week.

Tap to expand to scroll down and read...
🏈 New England -3.5 (-110)

Belichick vs Wilson who looked flustered and anxious vs a weak CAR defense. Disagree with NE not being upgraded after seeing that Mac can work within this offense. Great secondary in MIA to now a bottom 5 in NYJ (Darnold 8.0 ypa!) It just feels short.
🏈LA Chargers -3 (-110)

Trust in Staley. LAC 62% pass vs a tough WFT DEF. LAC OL improved, allowed pressure just 12% of drops. LAC goes from one of the best DEF to a horrendous DAL DEF unit. Do we really upgrade DAL after TNF? Lost badly in YPP, YPA & YPR despite +3 TO's.
Read 8 tweets
7 Sep
Thread of NFL Week 1 bets and write-ups based on the Tuesday morning segment with @MitchMossRadio and @PaulyHoward on @VSiNLive.

Thread will be updated throughout the week.

Tap to expand to scroll down and read...
🏈 SF -7.5 (-110)

Shanahan vs Campbell/Lynn with 12+ weeks of prep. Goff now without McVay helping him (look at his '16 numbers!) vs the depth of the 49ers pass rush. Huge number on the road but a big mismatch. IMO reminiscent of BAL @ MIA in Week 1 2019.
🏈 SEA -145 & o49 (-110)

Seattle to see a big pace uptick from 2020. New OC Waldron has been implementing up-tempo passing game all camp/preseason. Wilson full control of call at line. Great DEF game planning coach in Gannon out from IND. SEA DEF horrible in coverage. Points.
Read 10 tweets
11 Aug
Any NFL bettor can make (a fairly decent) total on their own with a pen, paper and seven basic stats.

Will this allow you to beat the books? Probably not. But it will answer questions and serve as a simple, basic place to begin making totals.

Here is a thread on how it works...
These are the seven statistics that you need to use. The goal of this "exercise" is to ultimately weight the output numbers of each team to the opponent allowance and then adjust for pace and pass rate.
Start by getting the defensive numbers for each team and organize by yards per rush allowed and yards per pass allowed.
Read 11 tweets
9 Aug
The easiest way for most bettors to create NFL Power Rankings explained in a thread. (Key words in that sentence are "easiest" and "most bettors".)

The 0-100 method begins as it sounds, take a piece of paper and draw a line with 0 on one side and 100 on another. Image
0 = the worst team in NFL history
100 = the best team in NFL history

Plot four teams on the 0-100 scale based on how you feel about the team. Examples included...

Best: (KC 90)
Worst: (HOU 15)
Avg or Worse: (LAC 40)
Avg or Better: (TEN 60) Image
Continue to add teams in as you go. It is easiest to work from left to right. Just keep asking if the team you are rating is better or worse than each team on the plot. Once the answer is no, that is where the team should be plotted. Work through the league. Image
Read 10 tweets
27 Nov 19
On @YouBetterYouBet tonight, @JoeO670 told me that this week is the most popular download week of the year for podcasts. On that note, I thought I would share some of my favourite betting shows that I listen to each week for those travelling. Thread below 👇
More X's and O's focused than betting, but @CSimmsQB is able to talk about football in a way that everyone can understand. Every episode I learn a ton and high recommend it for those wanting to understand more about the game.

podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/chr…
No brainer here. @AndyMSFW and @whale_capper have an incredible way of talking about betting and making it feel like you are in the room with them. The improvement and growth of the show the past three years is extremely well deserved. Easy sub for all.

podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/dee…
Read 8 tweets
24 Oct 19
I learned a simple way to calculate a baseline for NFL totals during my first bookmaking job almost a decade ago. I still use it today to spot numbers on the board at open which may be too low or too high. I thought I would explain today in a thread below to offer some value. 👇
The most important thing I learned to think about was how teams are affected by their opponent. Rather than thinking “what can these teams do together” to bet a total, I think, “does this opponent increase or decrease the likelihood of success in the matchup”. In order to do...
this, I like to look back at how a team has made their opponents better or worse this season. I set up my paper with the defences in question and list out opponents and their yards per play/rush attempt for the entire season against all opponents. The second temp is taking the...
Read 16 tweets

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