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Marcelo P. Lima Profile picture
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8 Sep, 11 tweets, 3 min read
Three-letter government agencies in the US are, increasingly, an embarrassment
Other recent examples: CIA
IRS
NHS
FDA & CDC

amazon.com/Premonition-Pa…
DOD
FBI
time.com/magazine/us/52…
NSA
theverge.com/2013/7/17/4517…
TSA
theatlantic.com/national/archi…
FAA
inverse.com/innovation/spa…
When you see the pattern, it's hard not to wonder if we should dismantle our entire regulatory apparatus, scrap all the laws, and start again from scratch.

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More from @MarceloPLima

Marcelo P. Lima Profile picture
10 Sep
My prediction: BNPL providers will grow much faster than CC over the next decade, because they’re starting with a tiny sliver of commerce. That’ll create enormous value. 1/4
V/MA will be like mainframes: IBM’s MIPS continue to go up but it’s no longer where the cutting edge is. Cash is still growing and CC will keep growing but I expect BNPL to grow a lot faster. 2/4
Because Affirm is a digital-first company with real engineering chops, they have a massive advantage in building great software. They are unbundling credit cards… but maybe that’s the just the start? 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Marcelo P. Lima Profile picture
9 Sep
Peloton Apparel... I think this could be huge if well executed. Maybe I'm anchoring too much on Lululemon (which is fantastic) but I don't think in 2021 many people want to wear a large logo? $PTON
If you're a "lets get sweaty brand," do you really want cotton apparel?
The press release only talks about synthetic fabrics, which is the way to go:
Read 4 tweets
Marcelo P. Lima Profile picture
9 Aug
Tim Cook, 2016:

"While we believe the FBI’s intentions are good, it would be wrong for the government to force us to build a backdoor into our products."

Tim Cook, 2021:

"We're building a backdoor into our products."
See:
arstechnica.com/tech-policy/20…
Of course catching bad guys is laudable.

But Apple is creating a scanning tool on E2E encrypted messaging.

This is just the start.

"These efforts will evolve and expand over time," Apple writes.

Where will they draw the line?
Read 4 tweets
Marcelo P. Lima Profile picture
16 Jun
The Ovarian Lottery and the Internet

1997 Berkshire AGM, Buffett talks about the John Rawls idea of the ovarian lottery:

In the lottery, you can't control if you'll be born man or woman, black or white, abled or disabled, etc.

In that lottery...
"You would try to figure out a system that is going to produce an abundant amount of goods, and where that abundance is going to increase at a rapid rate during your lifetime, and your children and your grandchildren, so they can live better than you do, in aggregate...
...and their grandchildren can live better. [...] I mean, Charlie — when we were born the odds were over 30-to-1 against being born in the United States, you know? Just winning that portion of the lottery, enormous plus. We wouldn’t be worth a damn in Afghanistan."
Read 10 tweets
Marcelo P. Lima Profile picture
15 Jun
Wake up woke America.
“Even North Korea isn’t this nuts.”
What happened in the 15 years following 2000 that all of American academia was infected with wokeness?

Did all liberal arts academics get simultaneously brainwashed?

What was the process through which this happened?
Read 4 tweets
Marcelo P. Lima Profile picture
20 May
$LMND's LTV/CAC is trending in the right direction. This chart shows 1.4x LTV/CAC in the MRQ. The second series shows the *growth* in IFP over the LTM per dollar of ad spend in the same period (~70% of S&M as a proxy):
Here are the inputs. The company released annual dollar retention data with earnings. 81% in Q1 2021, of which 7 points were upsells, so let's say 74% retention. That means 26% yearly churn, or an LTV of 3.8 years. Gross margins are about 20% but will see upward pressure...
...from two sources: first, life insurance, which flows thru at 100% since it's not an owned policy, just commission. Second, a reduction in reinsurance over time as the company proves out its underwriting and keeps more of the economics. I'm using 25%. Note that...
Read 7 tweets

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