36/ "Since Trump's trade war, there has been a total increase of about $200 billion in tariffs from China. For e-commerce companies, this means direct China-US trade has become too expensive. The solution? Mexico."
ht Spencer Potiker @CharmaineSChua
37/ Beijing is popping China’s $52 Trillion property bubble that caused:
underinvestment in industry (crowding out effect)
decline in R&D (talent going to RE)
low consumer spending (tightening belts to save for pricier houses)
low growth (fewer babies)
38/“How China Avoided Shock Therapy” changes the terms of the debate.@IsabellaMWeber's Q is not...how 🇨🇳benefited from opening up,but how it succeeded in avoiding the disaster that integration into the world economy was to become for the Soviet"@adam_tooze noemamag.com/how-china-avoi…
39/ Don't stop at #EvergrandeCrisis. NOTHING in China can be understood without the forced-pace urbanization of 21stC. A nexus of credit-boom housing as families accumulated private assets off the public land that local party elites flogged off @Birdyword
wsj.com/articles/china… Image
40/ Can China continue to RIDE THE TIGER w new green growth model? "difficult to shift to a new growth model because constituencies that have...benefitted from the old model tend to be disproportionately powerful politically, and block attempts to adjust."
41/ "When Xi came to power in 2012/2013, he initiated his “anti-corruption drive” to resolve three primary constraints:

- Reduce corruption
- Soften the power-base of entrenched interests
- Uproot the most acute sources of factionalism"
Nice thread
42/ RIP Janos Kornai. Even when wrong about China's market socialism (that he did so much to build) he was so brilliantly wrong. A single Kornai footnote packed more insight than entire books @andrewbatson
andrewbatson.com/2018/01/22/why… Image
43/ '"...Xi explicitly addressed two social phenomena, “involution” and the “lying flat” movement, both of which emerged lately among urban youth tired of the rat race and the superficial meritocracy."

Chang Che on China's 'Red New Deal ht @leee_harris
prospect.org/world/china-re… Image

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More from @70sBachchan

21 Oct
Pentagon just unclassified its Climate report to the National Security Council.

Department of Defense wants you to know climate change is a "threat multiplier". What are all our poor bases in shithole countries going to do?
#GeopoliticsOfGHGs
media.defense.gov/2021/Oct/21/20…
US defense technocrats will now include Climate in prioritizing threats; in strategies for countering threats; in planning missions of the armed forces; in what weapons to develop and five-year plan for investments that support strategy #GeopoliticsOfGHGs
media.defense.gov/2021/Oct/21/20…
gotta love the big nerd brain energy in Pentagon planners.

Guys guys this climate change thing that our scientists are telling us about for 50 years? What if, like, its too hot for planes to take off or, get this, wildfire smoke makes bombing harder?
media.defense.gov/2021/Oct/21/20…
Read 13 tweets
21 Oct
US- Russia a thread

Worlds largest oil and gas producers? ✅✅
Military budgets many times larger than green investment? ✅✅
Grains in drought?✅✅
Massive forests going up in smoke? ✅✅
Massive chutzpah to create carbon offsets with said forests? ✅✅
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… ImageImage
2/“You wouldn’t always know it, but it went up every year I was president. That whole, suddenly America’s like the biggest oil producer & the biggest gas — that was me, people"-@BarackObama

Energy Independence/Dominance is a hell of a drug in both US (green line) & Russia (blue) Image
3/ Biden's infrastructure bill is now ~$2 Trillion over 10 years. Sounds like a lot right? $200 billion each year. But just about $30B each year is for Climate

US spends ~$750B p.a on the military,25 TIMES more than all climate programs #GeopoliticsOfGHGs Image
Read 6 tweets
19 Oct
US Power Sector emissions alone "exceeds GHG emissions of all but seven countries". US is the largest oil & gas producer on the planet.

Fight in US Congress is a big deal. If Biden can't do it with legislation, he will face opposition on regulations from GOP dominated courts
The N American oil complex has raised ~$1000 Billion from banks & pension funds to frack oil & gas over next 5 yrs.

At UN's #COP26, developing countries haggle over a symbolic $100 Billion from rich countries for climate wri.org/blog/2018/11/n…
Useful to zoom out. What makes climate action hard in the US?
1 It became the worlds LARGEST producer of Oil & Gas over last decade.
2. The Oil & Gas industry employs 10 million people across a dozen states that are overrepresented in Senate
ht @HelenHet20 newstatesman.com/world/americas…
Read 5 tweets
21 Sep
71/BIG news from Xi : "China will not build new coal-fired power projects abroad"

Will Coal stop? In eyeopening research @kellysgallagher et al found (1)domestic interests in countries push Coal (2)that 87% of coal finance is non-🇨🇳estatements.unmeetings.org/estatements/10… Image
72/ EU's Hydrogen strategy was to build 6GW of renewable hydrogen electrolyses by 2024.

China's response? Go big or Go Home! 100 GW! Its manufacturing economies of scale that gave rest of the world cheap solar and cheap batteries, now applied to Hydrogen rechargenews.com/energy-transit…
73/ Look around you. Everything you can kick & touch is made by burning carbon. All the machines we use to move,heat,cool,melt burn carbon. It hasn't sunk in everywhere, but Beijing gets that gains from redoing the Industrial Revolution *all over again*
Read 7 tweets
11 Sep
Democrats 'build back better' bill will give unto $12,000 in tax credit for new Electric Vehicle purchases! waysandmeans.house.gov/sites/democrat… Image
"Even if the president persuades Congress to fund his climate aid proposal, it’ll still be less per year than what the U.S. spends on a single aircraft carrier." ht @AlexCKaufman
Its the 0.4 in $11.4 billion for developing countries that is *chefs kiss*
huffpost.com/entry/biden-un…
"annual cost of *five* Green New Deal bills combined is still almost $300B less than the amount the House voted to give the Pentagon next year" ht @stephensemler
@JamaalBowmanNY @sunrisemvmt @CoriBush @AOC @saaaauuull
More Arms Race or more Schools... stephensemler.substack.com/p/climate-chan… Image
Read 4 tweets

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