US defense technocrats will now include Climate in prioritizing threats; in strategies for countering threats; in planning missions of the armed forces; in what weapons to develop and five-year plan for investments that support strategy #GeopoliticsOfGHGs media.defense.gov/2021/Oct/21/20…
gotta love the big nerd brain energy in Pentagon planners.
Guys guys this climate change thing that our scientists are telling us about for 50 years? What if, like, its too hot for planes to take off or, get this, wildfire smoke makes bombing harder? media.defense.gov/2021/Oct/21/20…
4/"Climate change is a threat multiplier"??
US Military call air-strikes, advise & assist militaries in a staggering 76 countries. 33 of them are in the fastest growing continent -Africa. Libya horrible enough;2020s could see escalation in Horn of Africa & Great Lakes @nickturse
5/ Pentagon unclas report:guys guys,the warming is, like, GLOBAL. Anything could happen, think big picture here.
"While certain climate hazards and impacts are specific to particular regions of the world, many are cross- cutting, cascading, and/or global" media.defense.gov/2021/Oct/21/20…
6/ Taking the piss coz pentagon is full of technical people who want more to be done on climate. They have talked about climate change at NSC since 1960s!
However, the word adaptation is mentioned 15 times. Mitigation, actually cutting carbon? 5 times.
7/ Pentagon's role as driver of industrial policy & employer is going to be v imp for Green New Deal. A burst of thinking to REPURPOSE military as wars end. Eg. 1992 report "Cold War peace dividend" set out blueprint for an Office of Economic conversion epi.org/files/page/-/o…
8/ The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) today released a National Intelligence Estimate on climate change.
11/ US Natl Intelligence, ACTUALLY these EVENTS would change our climate assessment:
Zero Carbon Technological breakthrough
Climate TIPPING POINT disaster
Russia or China military action in Arctic
A scared country doing geoengineering #GeopoliticsOfGHGs dni.gov/files/ODNI/doc…
12/ Pentagon - don't you climate people who think solving climate change is about markets, tech, etc know that it is about POWER. #GeopoliticsOfGHGs
Don't forget the only reason you have Climate Models is because of Nuclear Weapons dni.gov/files/ODNI/doc…
Worlds largest oil and gas producers? ✅✅
Military budgets many times larger than green investment? ✅✅
Grains in drought?✅✅
Massive forests going up in smoke? ✅✅
Massive chutzpah to create carbon offsets with said forests? ✅✅ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/“You wouldn’t always know it, but it went up every year I was president. That whole, suddenly America’s like the biggest oil producer & the biggest gas — that was me, people"-@BarackObama
Energy Independence/Dominance is a hell of a drug in both US (green line) & Russia (blue)
3/ Biden's infrastructure bill is now ~$2 Trillion over 10 years. Sounds like a lot right? $200 billion each year. But just about $30B each year is for Climate
US spends ~$750B p.a on the military,25 TIMES more than all climate programs #GeopoliticsOfGHGs
Useful to zoom out. What makes climate action hard in the US?
1 It became the worlds LARGEST producer of Oil & Gas over last decade. 2. The Oil & Gas industry employs 10 million people across a dozen states that are overrepresented in Senate
ht @HelenHet20newstatesman.com/world/americas…
"Even if the president persuades Congress to fund his climate aid proposal, it’ll still be less per year than what the U.S. spends on a single aircraft carrier." ht @AlexCKaufman
Its the 0.4 in $11.4 billion for developing countries that is *chefs kiss* huffpost.com/entry/biden-un…
34/ China's anti-Robber Baron moment? New five-year regulatory effort on Edu & Technology-related sectors on issues like overseas listings, antitrust, privacy.
“looking after middle-class people both in their role as consumers & in their role as workers” ft.com/content/bdcbbd…
35/ Forget 'varieties of capitalism'. We need a 'varieities of corruption' literature. Her fabulous essay on the Robber Barons of Beijing should make you run out to get @yuenyuenang's seminal book foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/…
36/ "Since Trump's trade war, there has been a total increase of about $200 billion in tariffs from China. For e-commerce companies, this means direct China-US trade has become too expensive. The solution? Mexico."
ht Spencer Potiker @CharmaineSChua
2/ " “Quick Win” solutions focus on halting highly destructive practices, such as widespread deforestation, flaring and fugitive emissions of methane, and “black carbon” emissions from dirty cookstoves, biomass burning, and other sources" drawdown.org/solutions/tabl…
3/ There are obstacles to implementing all of these "Quick Win" solutions, of course, but they offer large and immediate emissions reductions, plus strong economic returns. They are among the lowest hanging fruits globalecoguy.org/we-need-4-wave…
Project drawdown: drawdown.org/solutions/tabl…
21/ "While policymakers in advanced economies...argue about whether...aggressive fiscal stimulus...will generate inflation...inflation has already reached the developing world in the form of rapidly rising global commodity prices incl food"
ht @Jayati1609foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/05/eme…
22/ "Once it is recognised that the US external accounts are driven less by relative goods and service demand—that is by real goods and services—and more by global demand for US financial assets..."
23/ EM banks borrow heavily in dollars.Dollar appreciations lead to contraction in EM banks net worth because the currency value of local assets declines while $ liabilities increase.That leads to declines in credit & invtmnt in EM federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/f…