Just HOW effective are the COVID-19 vaccines at protecting you from severe illness and hospitalization even in the face of Delta?
BEFORE Delta variant increase: 95% effective
DURING Delta variant increase: 92% effective
Answer: VERY EFFECTIVE
Let’s discuss. 🧵
Real-world data out of King County, WA (which includes Seattle) confirms vaccinated individuals are significantly better protected from illness, hospitalization, AND death due to COVID-19 compared to unvaccinated individuals, even as the Delta variant surges through the state.
Over the PAST 30 days, unvaccinated individuals were:
•7X more likely to test positive for COVID-19 (69% of cases)
•49X more likely to be hospitalized for COVID-19 (87% of hospitalizations)
•32X more likely to die of COVID-19 related illness (72% of deaths)
Charts measuring COVID-19 between the two groups show a sharp, unrelenting increase in unvaccinated cases in Washington in August, while vaccinated cases peaked on August 10th before again declining. Over the last month, fully vaccinated cases NEVER exceeded 13 cases per 100,000
residents, a high reached on August 10th, before again declining, while unvaccinated cases continued to climb through the month, topping at 90 cases per 100,000 people on August 26th. You can find the dashboard here: kingcounty.gov/depts/health/c… which does provide case demographics.
Another set of real-world data comes out of the Yale New Haven Health System in CT. Researchers here describe the impact of vaccination on admission to hospital in patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections.
Data shows 95% of 969 COVID-19 related hospitalizations were in those NOT FULLY vaccinated. Of the 54 FULLY vaccinated hospitalizations:
•25 (46%) were asymptomatic (in other words, admitted for a non-COVID related condition but tested positive upon screening)
•14 (26%) had severe/critical disease (average age ~80, and most had former comorbidities)
A July 2021 study of Los Angeles, California public health records found unvaccinated individuals had 5X more COVID-infections than vaccinated individuals AND had 29X more COVID-19 hospitalizations than fully vaccinated individuals.
The Delta variant became the predominant variant in Los Angeles County during May-July 2021. During this period, SARS-CoV-2 cases and hospitalizations increased substantially, most notably amongst unvaccinated individuals. cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
Another study, this time out of New York shows the current COVID-19 vaccines were highly effective against hospitalization (VE >90%) for fully vaccinated New York residents, even during a period during which prevalence of the Delta variant increased from
<2% to >80% in the U.S. region that includes New York, societal public health restrictions eased, AND adult full-vaccine coverage in New York neared 65%. You can read more here: cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
Lastly, data out the Indiana Department of Health. For the week of August 22nd-29th there were 1,442 new COVID-19 hospital admissions. LESS THAN 20 of those were vaccinated individuals. coronavirus.in.gov/vaccine/2680.h…
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A study out of the University of Edinburgh shows that vaccine efficacy against severe COVID-19 has NOT significantly decreased since Delta became the predominant variant, is around 92%, and does NOT differ significantly between AstraZeneca, Pfizer, and Moderna’s vaccines.🧵
In addition, efficacy against the broader category of hospitalized or fatal COVID-19 remains only SLIGHTLY lower for AstraZeneca’s vaccine than for the mRNA (Pfizer and Moderna) vaccines (88% versus 91%).
NOTE: The REACT-SCOT case-control study data extracted here INCLUDES cases presenting up to September 2nd, 2021, however the analyses reported here are restricted to cases and controls presenting FROM December 1st 2020 to August 19th 2021 (8 MONTHS).
Yes, the vaccines ARE effective against the Delta variant. Yes, you will need both doses for maximum protection. Yes, they’re effective against preventing symptomatic infection, severe disease, AND hospitalization. Several studies have proven this now. Stop the misinformation.
Regarding the concerns about waning immunity. Please remember, this is likely referring to infection (see my most recent post on University of Pennsylvania’s study). Not effectiveness against symptomatic infection, not effectiveness against severe illness.
While neutralizing antibodies decrease over time (as they ARE supposed to) protective immunity provided by memory B-cells and T-cells is STILL present.
Delta is currently the most prevalent variant in Germany.
For those 60 and older:
•Against Infection: 83%
•Against Hospitalization: 94%
•Against ICU Admission: 94%
•Against Death: 91%
Germany uses Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccines. The vaccines are highly effective in preventing severe disease, hospitalization, and death due to COVID-19 even in the face of the Delta variant.
A study out of the University of Illinois shows vaccinated individuals with a “breakthrough” infection are LESS likely to shed infectious virus at a given viral load, shed for a SHORTER period of time compared to unvaccinated individuals, AND report fewer days of symptoms.🧵
To shed light on how vaccine breakthrough infections compared with infections in immunologically naive individuals, researchers examined viral dynamics and infectious virus shedding through daily longitudinal sampling in a small cohort of adults infected with
SARS-CoV-2 at varying stages of vaccination (in this case mRNA & J&J). The durations of both infectious virus shedding and symptoms were significantly reduced in vaccinated individuals compared with unvaccinated individuals. Researchers also observed that breakthrough infections
Peer-reviewed. 1M+ sample size. A UK study on “breakthrough” infections shows individuals who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 after 1 OR 2 doses of a vaccine had significantly LOWER odds of severe disease, hospitalization, OR developing Long COVID than unvaccinated individuals.🧵
Researchers found that the odds of having symptoms for 28 days or more after post-vaccination infection were approximately HALVED by having two doses of a vaccine. Their results suggest that the risk of Long COVID is reduced in individuals who are fully vaccinated, when
additionally considering the already documented REDUCED risk of infection overall. Vaccination (compared with no vaccination) was associated with reduced odds of hospitalization or having more than five symptoms in the first week of illness following the first or second dose,