Thread by @DoomsdayDebunks

To get all the world to 40% requires 2 billion doses.
Projected global supply 1.5 billion doses.
But COVAX supply forecasts have fallen 25% because of booster programs in wealthy economies.
This is why WHO are calling for a moratorium on boosters. 1/n

Limited data on safety & efficacy of boosters.
No emergency approval by FDA / WHO etc.

WHO continue to monitor situation.

Based on data so far, their advice is that the global priority is to supply first doses to weaker economies.
Photo: nara.getarchive.net/media/us-army-…
2/x

Summarizing press briefing on boosters.

Low rates of COVID deaths with high vaccination.
High rates in countries with low doses.
COVAX downgraded supply 25%

Not asking to stop something with good evidence for need for boosters.
Vaccines performing very well against variants to stop severe disease and death.
Is a case for 1st priming dose for imunocompromised.

Hard to see any substantial benefit more than benefit of people receiving 1st dose.

Vaccines not authorized by regulators - in many places around the world not a scientific consensus.

Note the vaccine manufacturers are already testing new boosters targeted to variants (later 2021) and CEPI is funding 2nd & 3rd generation vaccines that may stop all possible variants also with much higher efficacy (some time 2022). See my debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Easy-to-tweak-…

The moratorium is not about boosters targeted to variants or 2nd & 3rd gen vaccines. It's about a 3rd identical dose targeting the ancestral variant.

This is being rolled out in some countries based on limited data and divided scientific opinion on whether and how much it helps.

Also, not about a 3rd shot for severely immunocompromised. The WHO call that a 3rd priming shot, not a booster. There is good scientific evidence that this helps.
bmj.com/content/374/bm…
For boosters, WHO are recommending we follow the science, updated as understanding develops.

Dr Tedros calls for batch swaps.
1. UK receives new batches as top priority from manufactures, while ours expire.
2. Many health workers in Africa not yet vaccinated.
3. If Africa gets our next batch we still have months of excess doses & get theirs later.
who.int/director-gener…

Dr Bruce Aylward: it's very difficult to move doses from one country to another just before they expire.

Batches for COVAX can be allocated dynamically to any country ready to use them.

Batch swaps are far more effective than donating expiring doses.

Redone the graphic for Dr Mike Ryan's analogy to make it clear it is his analogy not mine.
@DrMikeRyan
See earlier in this tweet thread for links to the press briefings etc.
Dr Mike Ryan 1st makes the analogy here:

@DrMikeRyan Oxford University Professor Sarah Gilbert, leading scientist behind the Astrazeneca vaccine agrees with WHO that boosters are best going to weaker economies.
abcnews.go.com/Health/wireSto…

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