Thread by @jpr007

TESLA PRODUCTION ESTIMATE FOR 2021 Q4

First let's look at Capacity :

1. For Q4 I have assumed that both Shanghai Lines are now scheduled for 4-shift operation, which nominally means 4 crews at 40 hours each = 160 hours per week

2. This gives the Shanghai Model 3 and Model Y lines a Scheduled Capacity of 500,000 per year or 125,000 per quarter and 41,667 per month

- but there is some evidence from August that they may be beating these numbers

3. The Scheduled Capacity at Fremont for Model 3 and Model Y lines remains at 500,000 per year or 125,000 per quarter and 41,667 per month

An important part of being able to achieve this is the new Battery Pack supply from Shanghai with LG cells for LR and CATL cells for SR

4. I have assumed that the Fremont Model S and Model X line is running at 65% of its normal capacity in Q4, for an annual rate of 65,000 per year or 16,250 per quarter and 5,417 per month

- maybe this will now include Model X production as well as Model S

6. So the 2021 Q4 baseline is :

Total = 250,000 for M3 / MY and 16,250 for MS / MX

--> 266,250 units

7. First Wild Card

Shanghai may be able to do +5,000 more per month than I estimate here

--> +15,000 units

8. Second Wild Card

Both Austin and Brandenburg are likely to start one line of production before year end

- I have allowed for about 1,500 units from each

--> +3,000 units

9. So the 2021 Q4 potential total is 266,250 + 15,000 + 3,000

--> 284,250 units total

- which is an annual run rate of 1,137,000 units per year

And there is still room for that to hit 290,000 units for the quarter or a run rate of 1,160,000 per year

10. Adding up the Actuals + Forecasts for 2021 :

Q1 Actual = 180,338

Q2 Actual = 208,421

Q3 Forecast = 245,000~250,000

Q4 Forecast = 266,250~290,000

2021 Total = 900,009~928,759 units produced