JPR007 Profile picture
9 Sep, 8 tweets, 2 min read

First let's look at Capacity :

1. For Q4 I have assumed that both Shanghai Lines are now scheduled for 4-shift operation, which nominally means 4 crews at 40 hours each = 160 hours per week
2. This gives the Shanghai Model 3 and Model Y lines a Scheduled Capacity of 500,000 per year or 125,000 per quarter and 41,667 per month

- but there is some evidence from August that they may be beating these numbers
3. The Scheduled Capacity at Fremont for Model 3 and Model Y lines remains at 500,000 per year or 125,000 per quarter and 41,667 per month

An important part of being able to achieve this is the new Battery Pack supply from Shanghai with LG cells for LR and CATL cells for SR
4. I have assumed that the Fremont Model S and Model X line is running at 65% of its normal capacity in Q4, for an annual rate of 65,000 per year or 16,250 per quarter and 5,417 per month

- maybe this will now include Model X production as well as Model S
6. So the 2021 Q4 baseline is :

Total = 250,000 for M3 / MY and 16,250 for MS / MX

--> 266,250 units

7. First Wild Card

Shanghai may be able to do +5,000 more per month than I estimate here

--> +15,000 units
8. Second Wild Card

Both Austin and Brandenburg are likely to start one line of production before year end

- I have allowed for about 1,500 units from each

--> +3,000 units
9. So the 2021 Q4 potential total is 266,250 + 15,000 + 3,000

--> 284,250 units total

- which is an annual run rate of 1,137,000 units per year

And there is still room for that to hit 290,000 units for the quarter or a run rate of 1,160,000 per year
10. Adding up the Actuals + Forecasts for 2021 :

Q1 Actual = 180,338

Q2 Actual = 208,421

Q3 Forecast = 245,000~250,000

Q4 Forecast = 266,250~290,000

2021 Total = 900,009~928,759 units produced

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More from @jpr007

15 Sep
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Carbon dioxide emissions from plug-in hybrid cars are as much as two-and-a-half times higher than official tests suggest, according to new research…
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15 Sep

GM has said early Bolt models will have their entire battery pack replaced, while newer models will have only defective modules within the pack replaced

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14 Sep

The closer that we get to the end of the quarter, the more wild cards are emerging for the Shanghai side of production

Let's review them . . .
1. The month of September includes the Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival, which is a national holiday

- however, I am inclined to think that there are coverage plans in place to cope with this and keep production running steadily

- prior holidays have not had very visible impacts
2. It has been said that Shanghai Phase 1 is running at 800 cars per day, and recent upgrades to Phase 2 have given it an output of 1,000 cars per day

- this would result in an output of around 50,000 cars per month

- compared to my estimate of 41,000~44,264 units for September
Read 7 tweets
14 Sep

A quick review of the three key uncertainties in the estimates for Q3 production


- Q1 production was 102,426 with M3 on 4 shifts and MY on 3 shifts

- Q2 production was 114,391 with M3 on 4 shifts and MY on 4 shifts
In Q3 both Fremont M3 and MY should still be on 4 shifts with a combined nominal capacity of 125,000 units per quarter

So the uncertainty is :

- whether Q3 production will fall back to Q1 levels like the 102,991 projected here by Troy ?
- or whether Q3 production will meet and beat Q2 levels ?

I have projected 115,000 units, derived from the nominal capacity of 125,000 units reduced by 10,000 units for supply chain issues

The difference is +12,000 units
Read 12 tweets
13 Sep
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