Thread by @RohitashwT

Russia doesn't like Taliban in backyard.

What will China and Pakistan do now?

Engage or not engage Taliban?

Iran will not engage Taliban at the cost of Russian support.

Americans will not accept Haqqani.

India will swing all sides without engaging Taliban.

Woaa!

Rouge Afganistan might lead to:

1. Civil War like situation in Waziristan, Swat, KP, Tribal areas and Baluchistan.

2. In view of above, OROB and CPEC dies.

3. Kashgar will go rouge.

4. Any new incident in South China Sea or Tibet will trigger CCP's downfall.

China must prevent above series of events.

Direct interference in Afgansitan seems to be the only option.

Russia will not allow any foreign ( Chinese of Pakistani) interference.

If China somehow maintains 'Status Quo' then the Chinese desire to be Superpower is lost.

Someone in Hongkong and Kim Jong in North Korea are yet to come out with thier 'Googly'.

Japan will raise the temperatures around East China Sea and Philippine Sea.

Spartley is already challenged.

Is this check-mate for Chinese ambitions? May be not.

Though Pentagon has stumped Chinese covid bio-warfare but Dragon won't go down so easily.

Eye of the storm will be over Pakistan now.

China will force Pakistan to maintain order in and around Durand line. Herculean task!

Afgan pullout is not American defeat.

Infact, it is just another strategic development in this ongoing unconventional, economic and covert world war.

Afgan pull out by US shall be remembered as strategically similar to Soviet withdrawal till Stalingrad in 2nd World War.

Making rival fractions sit, talk, chalk out and execute a deal with commercial and strategic interest of every participant is a masterstroke.

Guess who could be the mediator or enabler?

Hint - Most crucial market and maker for Wester economic activities.

Clear and tell-tale signs of age tested ingenious British diplomacy and war-craft as well...

Nevertheless, I don't see #CCP China going down so easily without a real fight.

Iran, Arab World and North Korea can never be trusted.

Can India-Isreal-Arab-French lobby provide a super power alternative?

France is a formidable support force but is famous for surrendering.

Also, whichever turn this Geo-Political power struggle takes from now on, Pakistan dies in every scenario.

Disintegration of Pakistan is in larger interest of every global power.

@ImranKhanPTI and @OfficialDGISPR will go down as bigger losers than Mussolini.

Now everything depends upon what Chinese response would be.

It can be ugly, unconventional or conventional.

Only conventional remedy is kinetic aggression and show of strength.

Unconventional and ugly remedies are a pandora box of space warfare, cyberwar or another 'virus'.

Options with China --
1.) Escalating Iran's nuclear ambitions would trigger an early American response.

Any such response could change internal political dynamics of America.

This American problem can be handled with ease by Israel.

2.) Forcing America into kinetic and controlled response over Taiwan to disturb internal politics of America and NATO alliance.
Also, this will be a good test to check emergence of Quad. Fissures can be exploited.

Risk - Uncontrolled kinetic escalation.

3.) Engaging India in a two-front kinetic situation. This will again test Quad and NATO.

If losses are incured on India then China/Pak controlled 0.5th front can trigger political policy paralysis.

But if China loses then this becomes Endgame!

Can Dragon dare?

Now connect military modernisation initiatives taken by @narendramodi govt such as speedy Rafael squadron operationalisation, against all odds.

Policy changes to push 'Make In India', Go-Local initiatives, Labour reforms, Vaccination diplomacy are a game changer.

Now recollect all those who were opposing Rafael deal, mocking international visits of PM, questioning morale of Indian Army.

Those who are still trying to create riot like situation.

The farm law agitation and attempts to exploit Khalistan?

Arent these people anti national?