#MarsiliosTA

People asking how to turn on pivots - just use tradingview's built in indicator where you can select yearly. half-year, quarter, etc what you want to check

You can turn it on more than once for different timeframes or use different tabs, then customize the lines
MACD

not based on quant study
& did not do very rigorous experiment

played around until found settings that seemed to line up with pivot & MA signals a lot of the time

regular is 12 26 9

mine much faster - 7 15 5

more signals - if too many zoom out, or be rigorous on filter
So a lot of arrows in the MACD here, change of signal line

But on the way up above rising MAs & pivots longs profit, shorts easy to filter out - you don't short above a 50MA that is screaming higher or on top of monthly pivot

Just think about the 3 together & see when line up
Based on this idea, on strictly technical basis, BTC is not a "good" daily short here

above rising D50
no pivot status change at all yet

June was way better & also high confidence

(same chart)
This is not a contradiction

I could be swing short based on lower TF (timeframe)

but on daily chart basis, don't want to be fully long when daily macd is down and below 10 & 20 MAs both with negative slope

Today watching reaction from this D200
could play around with us
end

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More from @MarsiliosMM

15 Sep
#MarsiliosTA

Bollinger bands

Interesting concept - 20MA, then 2 standard deviations away from it create the bands - you can also edit the MA

It does work - like all market indicators, nuance required for best results

If really interested read the book by the creator
Here's BTC with just the daily BBs

So how does this work?

Sometimes taking reversal trade on band is awesome, sometimes slaughtered

Context is key
Slope matters a lot
Divergence is what the pros look for

To explain...
Power move, up or down, is high & close outside the band with the band sloping strongly in direction of the trend - this usually (not always) means continuation

You have to review charts to get this concept but now I will mark arrows with this power move outside band
Read 9 tweets
12 Sep
Also should I continue TA threads?

See hashtag #MarsiliosTA for intro to

pivots
simple MAs
tweaked MACD

combined these give us great idea of "trend" and is my core positioning guidance

if continuing, then:
Bollinger bands & how I use them - divergence & spotting reversals, 1st stage in change of trend

Along with the momentum indicators RSI (better) and stoch (more like early warning, I don't use this much)

Already sketched entry idea, but really I have 3 setups, & 2 variations
Then we have risk management, when to hold, when to cut, stops

Exits - actually back to MACD histogram for this, along with all else
Read 4 tweets
12 Sep
Total Sum

Stocks have gone further & smoother than I ever imagined at start of 2021, unprecedented rally with SPX above smoothly rising D50MA since election except, count them, 2 days!

Obv aided by US tech, GOOGL +60%, MSFT +32%, banks also up decently, energy, pretty broad
And whether market tops on the "worst astro" (maybe just in?) or has even more massive blow-off next year with Jup in Pisces remains to be seen

Near term however, everything lining up for Sept smash

All major index TA
VIX, with VXX SVXY nearly there
Astro many ways weak ahead!
Preferred scenario is risk assets down to end Sept & then another low 10/8-10/10

For stocks probably not easy as aggressive dip buyers have made a lot of $, and indexes come back over and over

This is a sharp counter-trend call but that's how I see it
Read 6 tweets
12 Sep
Index TA

Now some of these lines will make more sense to those who read TA threads

DJI exceeded QR1 AugR1 combo for 2 trading days, since then levels as resistance; slight poke above QR1 9/2 (small red arrow)
Broke SepP 9/7 (orange)
Broke D50MA 9/9
Back under YR1 9/10 (red)
This is significant technical deterioration in short amount of time

Medium term levels acting as resistance
Pivot status change
Break of D50 & yearly level

So, comeback or smash? With astro, thinking smash
SPX

HR1 QR2 resistance
Sept pivot break

Still far above D50MA though
Read 8 tweets
12 Sep
Astro (long thread)

Pluto Rx in Capricorn-Saturn from 6/29
Saturn ruling sign & term, should be quite nasty, these 4' among worst in zodiac. Though some bond rally & covid again, muted impact for markets.

FOMC has twisted everything:

Bad news = QE pumping = good for markets
Could worst astro produce big top? Maybe, but depends on taper schedule; more likely is slow taper & gradual hike so perhaps big blow-off top next year 2022

Neptune in Pisces-Mars from 1/23, Rx from 6/25
Expected volatility & larger moves both ways; this term in play a while
Uranus in Taurus-Jupiter from 7/7, Rx from 8/19
Think this is helping tech & cryptos with Jupiter in Aqu

*

Saturn Rx in Aqu-Ven 6/18
Saturn worse out of term Jupiter, & helping safe havens lift when triggered; but not hitting that hard in big picture

Might take direct?
Read 15 tweets
12 Sep
Full market analysis ahead:

Review
Astro
TA (just a bit)
Sum with next forecast

Check threadreader post after each section

Read what sections interest you

This process has resulted in many accurate takes on major asset classes - focus on indexes, cryptos & safe haven trades
Many - but not all - accurate statements from last week:

From spread,
Indexes: "Prefer 9/6-8 trading top, then lower into following weeks"
Good for indexes so far, main futures made highs 9/2-7 and tests 9/6, leader NQ 9/7 high, then all lower
This gets check!
Cryptos: "Same, but less damage expected, could stretch to 9/10 top"
Ugh, 9/6 key high, but more damage

Hottest coins SOL ALGO LUNA highs closer to 9/10, and ATOM pushing higher today

I don't have different astro on every coin, only general conditions, TA for the rest
Read 11 tweets

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